On a sunny day (Wed, 5 Aug 2020 12:03:37 +0100) it happened Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote in <rge3ma$106f$1@gioia.aioe.org>:>On 05/08/2020 11:50, Phil Hobbs wrote: >> On 2020-08-04 16:10, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >>>> > >>>> The >> Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after >>>> >> the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake >>>> scientists. >> >>> >>> I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy >>> said "Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as >>> those Dutch guys." >>> >>> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll >>> really find out in winter. > >Sweden's population density outside of a handful of major cities is low >enough that they can probably get away without a national hard lockdown. >Their people are all fairly sensible and reasonably fit. > >Even so they still lost control of Covid-19 in the care home setting >with predictable results. > >> The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice. This >> has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so. ;) > >Pragmatic is the word you are looking for. > >They have a reputation in adjoining Belgium for being avid caravanners >and for taking a sack of their own Dutch potatoes on holiday with them. >They were a very serious sea faring naval power in the past.Dutch ASML is a world leader on semiconductor photolithography. It is being threatened by US preCdent trump not to sell to China. Dutch government is bit of a hostage of US and its nukes. trump also threatened the Dutch ships working on the Northstream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, that way delaying that project. And trump threatened the International Court of Justice in The Hague if they looked into US war crimes. Bushman did the same. As SOON aS our NoVA BomB is Ready we will deliver the concrete to fill up the hole where now that dirty white house is. US dictator trump does not understand he no longer has allies in this universe and the next war that the says he will use small nukes in, will open the door to the uranium dust engulfing all US cities and harbors.
Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science
Started by ●August 4, 2020
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On 2020-08-05 07:49, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote:> Am 05.08.20 um 13:28 schrieb Phil Hobbs: > >> I wear a mask when I'm in the store or someplace like that, but >> primarily to be polite to the people who work there. > > Me too, but primarily for the same reason I have a 10 dB pad > on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally. > >> Cheers > > Gerhard > > > I should have done that before I shot my SNA-33. :-(Well, that experience is widely applicable, anyway. ;) Cheers Phil Hobbs -- Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics Briarcliff Manor NY 10510 http://electrooptical.net http://hobbs-eo.com
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:49:28 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de> wrote:>Am 05.08.20 um 13:28 schrieb Phil Hobbs: > >> I wear a mask when I'm in the store or someplace like that, but >> primarily to be polite to the people who work there. > >Me too, but primarily for the same reason I have a 10 dB pad >on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally.Mine has a TVS, also. Turning power on/off on the line side of LISN has killed many an SA. RL
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On 05/08/2020 00:11, John Larkin wrote:> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> > wrote:>> Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself: >> >> http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb >> >> [...] > > That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level > data. > > They usually link to a local health agency for regional data. > > Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near > Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.That isn't at all surprising. Population density matters. Transmission is very strongly influenced by the frequency with which you meet other people. In very sparsely populated wilderness areas you may effectively be living in self isolation for most of the time apart from when you visit major population centres, shops, bars and restaurants. If the proportion of infected people is p The chances of not catching it each day scales as (1-p)^N where N is the number of people you meet in a day. Or to put it another way your chances of catching it on any given day are roughly 50% when you meet N' = ln(2)/p people in a day. For N <= 1/p it has an approximate closed form 5Np/(5+3(N-1)p) (max error 2% when n=1/p) Where I live N is under 10 if I go out locally and 0 or 1 if I don't. p is 0.00004 or 40ppm locally so I would need to attend a football match with over 17k other people to have an evens chance of catching it. If I go shopping N is about a hundred and if I go into London it is over a thousand (that latter contact group was sufficient to get several colleagues infected in a day trip to London just prior to lockdown). -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On Wed, 05 Aug 2020 11:50:44 GMT, Jan Panteltje <pNaOnStPeAlMtje@yahoo.com> wrote:>On a sunny day (Wed, 5 Aug 2020 12:03:37 +0100) it happened Martin Brown ><'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote in <rge3ma$106f$1@gioia.aioe.org>: > >>On 05/08/2020 11:50, Phil Hobbs wrote: >>> On 2020-08-04 16:10, John Larkin wrote: >>>> On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >>>> >>>>> >>>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >>>>> >> >>>>> The >>> Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after >>>>> >>> the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake >>>>> scientists. >>> >>>> >>>> I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy >>>> said "Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as >>>> those Dutch guys." >>>> >>>> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll >>>> really find out in winter. >> >>Sweden's population density outside of a handful of major cities is low >>enough that they can probably get away without a national hard lockdown. >>Their people are all fairly sensible and reasonably fit. >> >>Even so they still lost control of Covid-19 in the care home setting >>with predictable results. >> >>> The Dutch are famously stubborn and full of unsolicited advice. This >>> has stood them in good stead for a thousand years or so. ;) >> >>Pragmatic is the word you are looking for. >> >>They have a reputation in adjoining Belgium for being avid caravanners >>and for taking a sack of their own Dutch potatoes on holiday with them. >>They were a very serious sea faring naval power in the past. > >Dutch ASML is a world leader on semiconductor photolithography.https://www.dropbox.com/s/ec4oha12ii8flh8/TEM2_in_scanner.png?raw=1 -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:49:10 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:>On 05/08/2020 00:11, John Larkin wrote: >> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> >> wrote: > >>> Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself: >>> >>> http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb >>> >>> [...] >> >> That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level >> data. >> >> They usually link to a local health agency for regional data. >> >> Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near >> Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe. > >That isn't at all surprising. Population density matters.Which is one more reason why universal lockdowns don't make sense. But not the whole story. Case counts vary wildly, even in places with high population density. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 12:41:44 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:49:10 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > > >On 05/08/2020 00:11, John Larkin wrote: > >> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> > >> wrote: > > > >>> Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself: > >>> > >>> http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb > >>> > >>> [...] > >> > >> That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level > >> data. > >> > >> They usually link to a local health agency for regional data. > >> > >> Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near > >> Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe. > > > >That isn't at all surprising. Population density matters. > > Which is one more reason why universal lockdowns don't make sense. > > But not the whole story. Case counts vary wildly, even in places with > high population density.Of course. There have been no lock downs in the US, so it's a moot point. The measures we have taken in the US work when we don't compromise them by cutting the corners off. The idea that one county doesn't need to limit meetings and gatherings or skip distancing and masks because they currently don't have a higher rate of infection, completely misses the point. You can't treat this disease as a closed loop control system. That will guarantee a level of infection that is the worst case scenario, a very drawn out course of the disease, plenty of deaths and infirmities as well as an extended impact on the economy. Do you like to pull off the bandage slowly so it pulls out one hair at a time? Some people are just masochists. Most of us aren't. Had we stayed the course in full force, we would have been done with this disease by now. Done! We would be seeing new infection counts in the 100's across the entire country, not 10's of thousands. But we have too many in this country who literally are incapable of understanding and unwilling to listen to those who do understand. Dunning-Kruger at it's finest. Too bad their cognitive defect impacts us all. -- Rick C. ++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging ++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> > wrote: > >> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: >>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >>>> >>>> >>>> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research >>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with >>>> fake scientists. >>> >>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect >>> the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant >>> provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social >>> distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except >>> where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. >>> >>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member >>> of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false >>> sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public >>> transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective. >>> >>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for >>> them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now >>> to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word! >>> >>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium >>> where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density >>> and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard >>> lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present. >>> >>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell... >>> >> >> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where >> I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases: >> >> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg >> >> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of >> which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a >> month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake >> Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go >> gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. >> >> New cases August-1: One. >> New cases August-2: Two. >> >> This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it >> makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we >> do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no. >> >> Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food" >> (mandated, for whatever stupid reason). >> >> It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes, >> Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-) > > Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like > about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now. >Partly that's because many idiot governors decided that protesting with looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a "civil right" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak. Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch resistance, of course).> Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a > month or so wide FWHM. That's the chracteristic waveform of this > thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or > create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing > secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about > the same waveform. > > Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and > with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to > close to zero? Where is the exponential growth? >I can't really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know. People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it. Those people don't get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with life. This family is very athletic.> When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should > insult me instead of answering. >There are some people with whom discussions aren't really worthwhile because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks. -- Regards, Joerg http://www.analogconsultants.com/
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 1:51:50 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:> On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote: > > On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> > > wrote: > >> > >> It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes, > >> Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-) > > > > Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like > > about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now. > > > > Partly that's because many idiot governors decided that protesting with > looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a "civil > right" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.I see your problem now. You literally have no understanding of the important issues in how a pandemic spreads.> Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is > pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch > resistance, of course).Yes! This absolutely confirms it. You fail to understand even the most simple principles of this disease and how it spreads. As long as the disease is rampaging somewhere in this country, no place is "safe". Yes, if you open up all the restaurants, bars, churches, whore houses and everywhere else people congregate, you won't see much happen for a few weeks... but just as it happened in Florida, Texas, Arizona and many other states, gradually behaviors will change and the disease will come back with a vengeance. There is no "pretty much done" anywhere for this virus. If you start practicing poor behaviors and allowing the disease to spread, IT WILL SPREAD! Larkin is a "special" case with his well documented thinking failures. But do you really think that if you go back to living like you did before the pandemic you won't see infection rates take off in your county?> > Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a > > month or so wide FWHM. That's the chracteristic waveform of this > > thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or > > create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing > > secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about > > the same waveform. > > > > Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and > > with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to > > close to zero? Where is the exponential growth? > > > > I can't really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall > health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did > well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people > are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are > often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know.Ok, I see you are drinking Larkin's Kool Aid. The locations that saw the disease rise and fall enacted the same sort of measures you seem to think can now be relaxed. That's the simple answer to the question. Larkin tries to draw a dichotomy of "lock down" or no "lock down". No place in the US had a "lock down". So the question is irrelevant.> People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I > know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in > February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it. > Those people don't get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with > life. This family is very athletic.Interesting how you use "weasel" words like "often" rather than making a blanket statement. How do you know that family had COVID-19? They could have easily contracted a flu bug like I did in February. This is why anecdotal evidence is BS, but then you seem to live and die by those sorts of stories, so that says a lot about your thinking.> > When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should > > insult me instead of answering. > > > > There are some people with whom discussions aren't really worthwhile > because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks.When they do it is mostly because of the failure on other's part to actually "think". It's very frustrating to try to discuss something when the other person chooses to reject or ignore the facts. -- Rick C. --- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging --- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On Wed, 05 Aug 2020 10:51:52 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:>On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote: >> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> >> wrote: >> >>> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: >>>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >>>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research >>>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with >>>>> fake scientists. >>>> >>>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect >>>> the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant >>>> provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social >>>> distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except >>>> where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. >>>> >>>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member >>>> of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false >>>> sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public >>>> transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective. >>>> >>>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for >>>> them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now >>>> to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word! >>>> >>>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium >>>> where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density >>>> and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard >>>> lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present. >>>> >>>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell... >>>> >>> >>> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where >>> I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases: >>> >>> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg >>> >>> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of >>> which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a >>> month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake >>> Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go >>> gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. >>> >>> New cases August-1: One. >>> New cases August-2: Two. >>> >>> This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it >>> makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we >>> do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no. >>> >>> Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food" >>> (mandated, for whatever stupid reason). >>> >>> It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes, >>> Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-) >> >> Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like >> about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now. >> > >Partly that's because many idiot governors decided that protesting with >looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a "civil >right" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.I'm in Nutcase City, where half the houses have BLM banners in the windows, so I'm not in touch with many real people around the USA. I'd guess that a lot of quiet people in flyover country are getting annoyed at the hysteria of the mainstream press, and the annoyance (not to mention unemployment) will become votes in November. What's your impression, where you are?> >Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is >pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch >resistance, of course). > > >> Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a >> month or so wide FWHM. That's the chracteristic waveform of this >> thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or >> create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing >> secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about >> the same waveform. >> >> Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and >> with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to >> close to zero? Where is the exponential growth? >> > >I can't really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall >health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did >well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people >are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are >often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know.SF has a lot of young, fit people. That might have helped to keep our deaths down. It is kind of a mystery.> >People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I >know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in >February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it. >Those people don't get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with >life. This family is very athletic.Mo and I are pretty sure we had it, in April. She works with a lot of kids (nasty little drippy Petri dishes) and their parents, probably got it and infected me. It wasn't real bad, but kind of wiped us out for a few months. I'm just now getting perky again.> > >> When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should >> insult me instead of answering. >> > >There are some people with whom discussions aren't really worthwhile >because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks.Right. Ignore them.
