On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote:> On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin > <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in > <r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>: > >On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts > ><ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote: > > > >>On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote:<snip>> >Yes. Shutdown forever. > > That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100% > eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels. That's something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult. Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job. <Snipped more idiocy> -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science
Started by ●August 4, 2020
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:> On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote: >> On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin >> <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in >> <r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>: >>> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts >>> <ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote: >>> >>>> On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote: > > <snip> > >>> Yes. Shutdown forever. >> >> That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100% >> eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.*NO* 99% of all the people who get it will *survive*. An unlucky 1% will die and 2% will suffer lingering after effects that may never go away. If we can vaccinate to the herd immunity level then R will drop below 1 and the virus will be reduced to sporadic events incapable of community transmission. It produces less serious symptoms in the young so it will almost certainly end up as a childhood disease like OC43 did after its initial pandemic entry in 1890. Symptoms in adults and IFR almost identical to today's Covid pandemic (though that one was from cattle not bats).> Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels. > > That's something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult. > > Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job.It isn't all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more. https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+% (assuming we can get a fully working vaccine) -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 4:42:58 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:26:15 -0700 (PDT), George Herold > <ggherold@gmail.com> wrote: > > >On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 3:00:38 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote: > >> On Wed, 05 Aug 2020 10:51:52 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> > >> wrote: > >> > >> >On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote: > >> >> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> > >> >> wrote: > >> >> > >> >>> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: > >> >>>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: > >> >>>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html > >> >>>>> > >> >>>>> > >> >>>>> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research > >> >>>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with > >> >>>>> fake scientists. > >> >>>> > >> >>>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect > >> >>>> the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant > >> >>>> provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social > >> >>>> distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except > >> >>>> where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. > >> >>>> > >> >>>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member > >> >>>> of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false > >> >>>> sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public > >> >>>> transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective. > >> >>>> > >> >>>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for > >> >>>> them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now > >> >>>> to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word! > >> >>>> > >> >>>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium > >> >>>> where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density > >> >>>> and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard > >> >>>> lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present. > >> >>>> > >> >>>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell... > >> >>>> > >> >>> > >> >>> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where > >> >>> I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases: > >> >>> > >> >>> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg > >> >>> > >> >>> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of > >> >>> which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a > >> >>> month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake > >> >>> Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go > >> >>> gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. > >> >>> > >> >>> New cases August-1: One. > >> >>> New cases August-2: Two. > >> >>> > >> >>> This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it > >> >>> makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we > >> >>> do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no. > >> >>> > >> >>> Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food" > >> >>> (mandated, for whatever stupid reason). > >> >>> > >> >>> It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes, > >> >>> Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-) > >> >> > >> >> Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like > >> >> about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now. > >> >> > >> > > >> >Partly that's because many idiot governors decided that protesting with > >> >looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a "civil > >> >right" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak. > >> > >> I'm in Nutcase City, where half the houses have BLM banners in the > >> windows, so I'm not in touch with many real people around the USA. > >I wonder if they all support BLM, or if putting up the sign is > >part of virtue signalling. "I'm on your side, don't hurt me." > > We have a very small black population, and they don't pose a threat to > anyone. It's just virtue signaling to the neighbors. > > >> > >> I'd guess that a lot of quiet people in flyover country are getting > >> annoyed at the hysteria of the mainstream press, and the annoyance > >> (not to mention unemployment) will become votes in November. What's > >> your impression, where you are? > >I wonder if all the 'moderates' are getting sick of the extremes? > >I was talking with a local shop owner (who I know well... Trump supporter) > >and he was complaining about some of the right wing nut cases who come > >into his business and want to bitch about the left. > >Once you get away from the bigger towns you see no BLM banners. > >Mostly Trump 2020 signs, and the occasional confederate battle flag. > > > >George H. > > I see mostly American flags, or the occasional Giants or 49ers flag. > > We have some Russian neighbors in Truckee, and they fly the American > flag on July 4th too. > > I don't think that many people want to feel like they are racists or > bigots, or want to feel that their country is founded on evil, or hate > cops.Oh sure lots of US flags. Some huge! Some white and black with one blue line. Also flags from the armed services, many the marines. And a few "Don't tread on me" Gadsden flags. Re: Confederate flags, I'm not sure what the message is meant to be. If I were to try and steel man their position, I think (from sitting next to them in a local bar, before covid19), they feel that the government has done more to help blacks than the rural whites... There is also a deep dislike for the black athletes making millions. Part of that may be the economic 'tension' that exists now. I heard a guy from the former Yugoslavia, say that the different races in the country got along OK when the economy was fine. But when it tanked, then racial violence broke out. The same is probably true here, economic unrest leads to racial unrest. I guess a lot of the flags are just to say, "I'm on this team, with this tribe." Which is a fine sentiment for sports teams, not so much for our nation. Hmm, maybe I should buy a Trump 2020 sign. To be put up in case of violence. My own, 'don't hurt me' flag.... nah.. :^) George H.
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 6:36:55 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:> On 06/08/2020 02:58, Ricketty C wrote: > > On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 3:32:36 PM UTC-4, John Robertson > > wrote: > >> On 2020/08/05 10:51 a.m., Joerg wrote: > >>> On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:<snip>> If you are over 70 or a 600lb couch potato with hypertension or diabetes > you are right to be worried but otherwise you can lookup the latest age > related risk factor for Covid infection fatality rate in the UK.Then look them up for measles. It was about 0.2%. It didn't kill all that may people, but it did kill some. Covid-19 isn't a disease you should be casual about.There also seems to be persistent damage in some young people who get a severe infection.> The median value across the population is presently 1.3% +/- 0.2% as of > 7/6/2020. The under 45's worst case IFR is now just 0.03% or 300ppm and > it is a factor of six lower still for the under 25s.Comforting, until you discover- the hard way - that you are one of the unusually vulnerable people.> https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/report-on-nowcasting-and-forecasting-6th-july-2020/It doesn't seem to say what you appear to be trying to say. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:>On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote: >> On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote: >>> On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin >>> <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in >>> <r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>: >>>> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts >>>> <ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote: >>>> >>>>> On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote: >> >> <snip> >> >>>> Yes. Shutdown forever. >>> >>> That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100% >>> eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die. > >*NO* 99% of all the people who get it will *survive*. An unlucky 1% will >die and 2% will suffer lingering after effects that may never go away. >If we can vaccinate to the herd immunity level then R will drop below 1 >and the virus will be reduced to sporadic events incapable of community >transmission. > >It produces less serious symptoms in the young so it will almost >certainly end up as a childhood disease like OC43 did after its initial >pandemic entry in 1890. Symptoms in adults and IFR almost identical to >today's Covid pandemic (though that one was from cattle not bats). > >> Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels. >> >> That's something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult. >> >> Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job. > >It isn't all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up >and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more. > >https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity > >I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than >double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data. > >https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a > >That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+% >(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine)Only if everyone is suceptable. https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/ What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population? This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far below 80%. R is often circular reasoning. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:36:55 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:> On 06/08/2020 02:58, Ricketty C wrote: > > > > Joerg is funny in that he thinks because the infection rate in his > > more rural county is low that means "for our county the virus is > > pretty much done". Wow! That is pure ignorance. > > He is sort of right.You fail to understand two things. The first is that the population of El Dorado county is not that rural. Secondly, you fail to understand that any location that relaxes the restriction which keep the virus at bay will see a higher rate of infection. Most places, like where Joerg lives, that means an R greater than 1 and the infection grows rather than shrinking. Nose around the counties on the map at https://geodacenter.github.io/covid/map.html# You will find many areas with low population density with high infection spreading. "7 day average daily new confirmed count per 10k population" is what you should select to see it graphically. The results are amazing! The entire south east US is a cesspool of rising infection rates. Interesting that the disease so clearly respects state borders like between Tennessee and Kentucky.> The other way that the transmission can be halted > is in sparsely populated regions where people do not interact much. You > have to meet someone who is infected or touch a contaminated surface and > transfer it to eye, nose or mouth before you can catch this virus. > > Eventually it will reach the rural backwaters but it won't be able to > sustain community transmission there anything like as easily as it can > in a large overcrowded city with a mass transportation system.What do you mean "eventually"??? You make it sound like it hasn't already. El Dorado county reported their first case in February. As recently as a week ago they reported 15 cases in one day. The county would appear to be doing something right the latter part of July and has now gotten their infection rate down to single digit numbers. You analysis of El Dorado is completely in ignorance of the facts.> This disease is incredibly good at exploiting weaknesses in overcrowded > places like inner city slums and mass transportation where people are > close packed together in random combinations with strangers.It's also very good at spreading in cafes and offices and supermarkets and anywhere else people gather. You don't need to create a drama of inner city slums to grow the virus.> James Lovelock who celebrated his 101st birthday this week, inventor of > the electron capture detector and Gaia hypothesis has an interesting > take on this pandemic and remains optimistic about the future. > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csz7jmWhat is your point? I'm not going to listen to a 20 minute interview about this, but if you have something to share about it feel free.> > Joerg also said, "us fit guys might have the virus at some point and > > never really feel it". If he really believes that, he should go > > ahead and contract the disease at a coronavirus party, quarantine > > himself until he is over it and then he won't be able to infect > > anyone. > > If he is under 45 fit and healthy with no complicating health conditions > then he is probably right.Tell that to Nick Cordero. After suffering horribly for three months and losing a leg he finally died. Yes, in his case death was a blessed relief. Of course Joerg's statement is "probably right" because it is weasel worded so it can be right. "us fit guys might have the virus..." doesn't say anything testable. But it gives an impression of saying something. It's the Rich Little of statements. It also does not support any reasonable conclusions. As I said, anyone who thinks we should open up and let the disease rage should volunteer to visit the CV ward every day and try to contract the disease. Once they have it and get over it they can roam the land freely without risk of spreading the disease.... well, any more than can a door knob or counter top.> The KSI risk profile for people in that > category is roughly equivalent to two years driving on US roads or 6 > years driving on UK roads. It is even better for the under thirties (and > they have started to take notice of that - ignoring the Covid advice). > > https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8493483/Britain-suffer-big-Covid-19-outbreaks-people-flout-social-distancing-rules.html > > There is still a roughly 5% chance that you could be one of the unlucky > ones who gets serious complications requiring hospital treatment though. > One friend so far has been unlucky and may need 6 months to recover."Dr David Nabarro, a World Health Organization coronavirus expert, conceded that 'everybody has got to have fun' after more than 100 days of lockdown." How the hell did Britain ever make it through the blitz? Why do you think 5% is an acceptable number??? I had not heard of Super Saturday in the UK. I expect they will see a peak in infections in the coming week(s). The UK is headed in the right direction, but they are still a long way from having this under control. Ah, yes, looking at the data in the UK they had the disease on the run and likely would have had it down to well less than 100 infections per day before the end of July. But now it is rising again with the 7 day average low of 545 up to 800 again. Why is everyone so f**king stupid? Is the UK full of alcoholics who can't go without drinking in public?> > You know Larkin won't get himself infected because he is afraid of > > dying from this horrible disease. He talks the talk of the > > denialist, but he walks the walk of the scaredy cats he ridicules. > > > > What a two faced Pecksniff. > > Whereas you are so scared of this virus that you cannot think straight.BS, my thinking is perfectly logical. My BS detector goes off with people like you, Joerg and Larkin.> If you are over 70 or a 600lb couch potato with hypertension or diabetes > you are right to be worried but otherwise you can lookup the latest age > related risk factor for Covid infection fatality rate in the UK.More BS. What did Nick Cordero do wrong? The error you and others like you make is thinking that because the disease is less often fatal for a younger age group that's the same as acceptable to ignore. You also make the mistake of thinking you can let the disease rage in on age group and have no impact on the rest of the population. 15 people died in a nursing facility in the retirement facility my friend is in. They didn't go out to catch the disease. They brought the disease in to infect them. Once the disease was in the facility it spread like wildfire. "Protecting the elderly" while letting the infection rage is a myth. The worst part is that other countries have clearly shown that it is actually possible and practical to defeat this disease. We know how to do it. Weak countries like the US just don't have the will. That is why we are in decline and will never again see the greatness we once had. "Make America Great Again" is the cry of the desperate, not the cry of resurrection.> The median value across the population is presently 1.3% +/- 0.2% as of > 7/6/2020. The under 45's worst case IFR is now just 0.03% or 300ppm and > it is a factor of six lower still for the under 25s. > > https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/report-on-nowcasting-and-forecasting-6th-july-2020/ > > Click on the IFR tab to see the age related breakdown of fatalities. > (you can also look back at previous data there)No one disputes the facts. At issue are the poorly thought out conclusions drawn from the facts. -- Rick C. +-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging +-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 9:59:38 AM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:> On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 4:42:58 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote: > > On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:26:15 -0700 (PDT), George Herold > > <ggherold@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > >Once you get away from the bigger towns you see no BLM banners. > > >Mostly Trump 2020 signs, and the occasional confederate battle flag. > > > > > >George H. > > > > I see mostly American flags, or the occasional Giants or 49ers flag. > > > > We have some Russian neighbors in Truckee, and they fly the American > > flag on July 4th too. > > > > I don't think that many people want to feel like they are racists or > > bigots, or want to feel that their country is founded on evil, or hate > > cops.Of course no one wants to think they are racist or bigots. Who self identifies as either???> Oh sure lots of US flags. Some huge! > Some white and black with one blue line. > Also flags from the armed services, many the marines. > And a few "Don't tread on me" Gadsden flags. > > Re: Confederate flags, I'm not sure what the message is meant to be. > If I were to try and steel man their position,Not sure you are using the term correctly.> I think (from sitting > next to them in a local bar, before covid19), they feel that > the government has done more to help blacks than the rural whites...Yes, obviously the issue is not understood. There are active programs to benefit the blacks because of the systemic racism that has persisted since... well from the beginning of this country and continues today. That seems to be what some people don't get, that blacks have been victims for a long, long time. Instead of understanding that, some point out the many, individual cases where a black was favored for something over a white. Ok, but that is either an example of "affirmative action" or it is an isolated case that is not about race at all. There are many cases where blacks do the same thing, cry "racism" when the same rules are applied to them as are applied to everyone. The problem is separating the real racism cases from the bogus ones. But that does not invalidate affirmative action and it does not mean we should not try to correct the racism problems still remaining.> There is also a deep dislike for the black athletes making millions. > Part of that may be the economic 'tension' that exists now.That is, by definition, racist, disliking someone because they are black.> I heard a guy from the former Yugoslavia, say that the different > races in the country got along OK when the economy was fine. > But when it tanked, then racial violence broke out. > The same is probably true here, economic unrest leads to racial > unrest.Sure, if everything is going well in your life you are less likely to complain about many things. That doesn't invalidate anything.> I guess a lot of the flags are just to say, "I'm on this team, > with this tribe." Which is a fine sentiment for sports teams, > not so much for our nation. Hmm, maybe I should buy a Trump > 2020 sign. To be put up in case of violence. > My own, 'don't hurt me' flag.... nah.. :^)What side is indicated by displaying the rebel flag, the losing side? -- Rick C. ++- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging ++- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 10:50:18 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > > >On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote: > >> On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote: > >>> On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin > >>> <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in > >>> <r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>: > >>>> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts > >>>> <ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote: > >>>> > >>>>> On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote: > >> > >> <snip> > >> > >>>> Yes. Shutdown forever. > >>> > >>> That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100% > >>> eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die. > > > >*NO* 99% of all the people who get it will *survive*. An unlucky 1% will > >die and 2% will suffer lingering after effects that may never go away. > >If we can vaccinate to the herd immunity level then R will drop below 1 > >and the virus will be reduced to sporadic events incapable of community > >transmission. > > > >It produces less serious symptoms in the young so it will almost > >certainly end up as a childhood disease like OC43 did after its initial > >pandemic entry in 1890. Symptoms in adults and IFR almost identical to > >today's Covid pandemic (though that one was from cattle not bats). > > > >> Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels. > >> > >> That's something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult. > >> > >> Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job. > > > >It isn't all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up > >and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more. > > > >https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity > > > >I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than > >double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data. > > > >https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a > > > >That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+% > >(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine) > > Only if everyone is suceptable. > > https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/ > > What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population? > > This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far > below 80%. > > R is often circular reasoning.Why is it that Larkin never seems to take into account that when the infection rises the population responds by taking caution against infection??? The problem is not that we don't understand the cause and effect, the problem is that when the infection improves people relax and revert to their risky behaviors. The result? A second "wave" of infection. Why does Larkin continue to ignore this very obvious, very rational explanation that is seen over and over again??? He reminds me of the guy who thinks he discovered a new structure of the nucleus (can't recall his name, but he posted here recently when I mentioned it) or Tony Stewart who is fanatical about the use of vitamins to fight Covid. I think Larkin is basically a Rainman type character. He spends half his time talking about K-mart underwear and how the coronavirus will resurge in the winter. Larkin must like me though. He calls me Ricky which is the name my loving aunts used. So I guess deep down inside somewhere Larkin loves me. I guess I should return it. -- Rick C. +++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging +++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 6, 20202020-08-06
On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 10:50:18 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > > >On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote: > >> On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 4:22:09 PM UTC+10, Jan Panteltje wrote: > >>> On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin > >>> <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in > >>> <r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdp...@4ax.com>: > >>>> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts > >>>> <ja...@xnet.co.nz> wrote: > >>>> > >>>>> On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote: > >> > >> <snip> > >> > >>>> Yes. Shutdown forever. > >>> > >>> That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100% > >>> eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die. > > > >*NO* 99% of all the people who get it will *survive*. An unlucky 1% will > >die and 2% will suffer lingering after effects that may never go away. > >If we can vaccinate to the herd immunity level then R will drop below 1 > >and the virus will be reduced to sporadic events incapable of community > >transmission. > > > >It produces less serious symptoms in the young so it will almost > >certainly end up as a childhood disease like OC43 did after its initial > >pandemic entry in 1890. Symptoms in adults and IFR almost identical to > >today's Covid pandemic (though that one was from cattle not bats). > > > >> Wrong.You only have to vaccinate enough of the population to reach herd immunity levels. > >> > >> That's something like 95% with something seriously infectious, like measles and there are enough lunatic antivaxers around to make this difficult. > >> > >> Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job. > > > >It isn't all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up > >and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more. > > > >https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity > > > >I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than > >double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data. > > > >https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a > > > >That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+% > >(assuming we can get a fully working vaccine) > > Only if everyone is suceptable. > > https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/ > > What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population?You don't seem to understand the R number. It is not measured over a portion of the population or individuals. It is measured over the population. The fact that some people are more infectious or more likely to be infected if exposed is not isolated. It is a measure of the speed of spreading of the disease in the population. Why would it matter if some are more easily infected than others???> This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far > below 80%.Yes, because the R number is dependent on behavior and behavior changes with changes in the infection even if it is only the passage of time. People get tired of being cooped up and start taking chances. Infections go up.> R is often circular reasoning.Please explain. -- Rick C. ---- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging ---- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On 06/08/2020 15:50, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > >> On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote:>>> Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job. >> >> It isn't all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up >> and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more. >> >> https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity >> >> I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than >> double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data. >> >> https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a >> >> That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+% >> (assuming we can get a fully working vaccine) > > Only if everyone is suceptable. > > https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/ > > What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population?The fraction of the population that do not get infected appears to be vanishingly small. You forget that hapless US choir that managed to put a bound of 87% on it and so killed some of their members. The proportion of those infected that are truly asymptomatic has been going down as more symptoms are added to the official list. But you are still infectious without showing symptoms - that is how it escapes.> This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far > below 80%.It only stops rising exponentially when there are strong interventions. Most of Europe is losing control again now with rising summer spikes as young holiday makers and alcohol fuelled antics break social distancing. UK locked down late and was well into exponential growth because somehow the experts advising the government had not noticed that the doubling time was not the 5 or 6 days of their models but 3 days in reality. A week delay of lockdown made the problem in the UK and resulting fatalities 4x higher than what they could have been. Even so it was a lockdown that was essential in London but not really needed in most of the rest of the country. UK is incredibly centralised the entire country is run for the benefit of London and the South East. UK test and trace is predictably a disaster run by dodgy subcontractors who have previous for defrauding the Ministry of Justice! The UK's DIY "world beating" phone app is a steaming heap of dingoes kidneys.> R is often circular reasoning.I don't particularly like R because it is not easily derived from measurable data and is subject to ad hoc modelling assumptions. The case doubling time (data smoothed as a 7 day rolling average) is much better. Only when we find the herd immunity threshold will we truly have an accurate value for R0. The slop in the UK values is huge right now. Curiously they are seeing rising infection rates but much lower hospital admissions (thought to be because most of them are fit young people). The same anomaly was observed in Germany when the ski set were infected right at the outset (German efficiency also played a part). -- Regards, Martin Brown
