Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science

On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
<jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:

>On 2020-08-05, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:
>>
>> Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is 
>> pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch 
>> resistance, of course).
>
>The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
>they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
>avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
>the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and 
>quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.

Yes. Shutdown forever.

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 3:32:36 PM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:
> On 2020/08/05 10:51 a.m., Joerg wrote:
> > On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:
> >> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
> >> wrote:
> >>
> >>> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
> >>>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
> >>>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html 
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
> >>>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
> >>>>> fake scientists.
> >>>>
> >>>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
> >>>> the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
> >>>> provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
> >>>> distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
> >>>> where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.
> >>>>
> >>>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
> >>>> of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a 
> >>>> false
> >>>> sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
> >>>> transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.
> >>>>
> >>>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
> >>>> them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged 
> >>>> now
> >>>> to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word!
> >>>>
> >>>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
> >>>> where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
> >>>> and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard
> >>>> lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at 
> >>>> present.
> >>>>
> >>>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
> >>> I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:
> >>>
> >>> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg
> >>>
> >>> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
> >>> which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
> >>> month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
> >>> Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
> >>> gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.
> >>>
> >>> New cases August-1: One.
> >>> New cases August-2: Two.
> >>>
> >>> This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
> >>> makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
> >>> do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.
> >>>
> >>> Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food"
> >>> (mandated, for whatever stupid reason).
> >>>
> >>> It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
> >>> Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-)
> >>
> >> Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
> >> about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.
> >>
> > 
> > Partly that's because many idiot governors decided that protesting with 
> > looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a "civil 
> > right" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.
> > 
> > Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is 
> > pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch 
> > resistance, of course).
> > 
> > 
> >> Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a
> >> month or so wide FWHM. That's the chracteristic waveform of this
> >> thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or
> >> create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing
> >> secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about
> >> the same waveform.
> >>
> >> Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and
> >> with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to
> >> close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?
> >>
> > 
> > I can't really answer that but part of the reason may be the overall 
> > health of the respective population. If you look at countries that did 
> > well without shutting down or with little in restrictions their people 
> > are mostly much less overweight, have less cardiovascular issues and are 
> > often very fit. In the US, ahem, well, we all know.
> > 
> > People who are fit can often shake such a virus without much fuss. I 
> > know a couple where the whole family had hardcore telltale symptoms in 
> > February, became very sick but just a few days later came out of it. 
> > Those people don't get tested, they just cure it out and then go on with 
> > life. This family is very athletic.
> > 
> > 
> >> When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should
> >> insult me instead of answering.
> >>
> > 
> > There are some people with whom discussions aren't really worthwhile 
> > because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad hominem attacks.
> > 
> 
> Like Mr. Trump?
> 
> John :-#)#

Trump is good at applying reason.  He just starts with alternative facts.  

These two are enjoying their mutual masturbation.  Let them have it without interruption.  Neither one is very good at seeing anything other than what they want to see.  

Joerg is funny in that he thinks because the infection rate in his more rural county is low that means "for our county the virus is pretty much done".  Wow!  That is pure ignorance.  

Joerg also said, "us fit guys might have the virus at some point and never really feel it".  If he really believes that, he should go ahead and contract the disease at a coronavirus party, quarantine himself until he is over it and then he won't be able to infect anyone.  

You know Larkin won't get himself infected because he is afraid of dying from this horrible disease.  He talks the talk of the denialist, but he walks the walk of the scaredy cats he ridicules.  

What a two faced Pecksniff. 

-- 

  Rick C.

  --+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
  --+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 4:29:24 PM UTC-4, Klaus Kragelund wrote:
> On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:35:48 PM UTC+2, John Larkin wrote:
> > On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk...@arcor.de> 
> > wrote:
> > >Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: 
> > > 
> > >> 
> > >> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll 
> > >> really find out in winter. 
> > > 
> > >Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. 
> > > 
> > >Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times 
> > >more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% 
> > >in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. 
> > > 
> > >Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, 
> > >but not to Sweden. 
> > > 
> > >Dream on. 
> > > 
> > >Gerhard
> > Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so 
> > far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may 
> > be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter 
> > effect coming too. 
> > 
> 
> You cannot compare Sweden to Spain and Italy. Italy and Spain was hit hard in the beginning before anybody knew what was going on since they both have industrial areas linked directly with business with Wuhan
> 
> The Swedes was just stupid and stubbornly insisted on their own strategy (the Chief virologist has admitted this) 
> 
> > Sweden's 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK 
> > is 64. 
> > 
> > If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero? 
> > Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the 
> > population? 
> 
> It is a widespread falsehood that Sweden did nothing. They just didn't lock down everything, like restaurants and businesses

My understanding is that over the last month or so they did close a lot more and that is what turned the tide to reduce the infection rate.  Did they continue to allow restaurants and bars to serve people?  I recall seeing a video of people rather tightly packed into an outside dining area on a beautiful day.  I assume this was not something that continued in July?  Otherwise why would the infection rate change so precipitously in July?  

-- 

  Rick C.

  -+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
  -+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 6:02:38 PM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote:
> On 2020-08-05, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:
> >
> > Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is 
> > pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch 
> > resistance, of course).
> 
> The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
> they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
> avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
> the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and 
> quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.

Here is someone who gets it.  However that isn't going to happen in El Dorado county.  They have a major highway passing through connecting Scramento to South Tahoe.  It's not like they can stop people from stopping to charge their EVs. 

What can be done is to continue to practice the various safe practices and very importantly do the contact tracing and quarantining that prevents the known infections from spreading.  

Why don't people understand that as soon as you take your finger out of the dike, the leak resumes? 

-- 

  Rick C.

  -++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
  -++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 7:28:54 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 18:36:42 -0400, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:
> >
> >I wonder if the Trump administration considered authorizing deployment 
> >of Russian military advisors in leftist cities to defeat Antifa?
> 
> Don't be daft. Or boring.

He wasn't.  He was being ironic and humorous.  Some of us actually have a sense of humor.  

I would be ok with the Russian advisors as long as they don't place bounties on anyone. 

-- 

  Rick C.

  +-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
  +-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 12:04:33 PM UTC+10, Ricketty C wrote:
> On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 4:29:24 PM UTC-4, Klaus Kragelund wrote: 
> > On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:35:48 PM UTC+2, John Larkin wrote: 
> > > On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk...@arcor.de> 
> > > wrote: 
> > > >Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: 
> > > >> 
> > > >> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll 
> > > >> really find out in winter. 
> > > > 
> > > >Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. 
> > > > 
> > > >Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times 
> > > >more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% 
> > > >in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. 
> > > > 
> > > >Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, 
> > > >but not to Sweden. 
> > > > 
> > > >Dream on. 
> > >
> > > Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so 
> > > far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may 
> > > be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter 
> > > effect coming too. 
> > 
> > You cannot compare Sweden to Spain and Italy. Italy and Spain was hit hard in the beginning before anybody knew what was going on since they both have industrial areas linked directly with business with Wuhan 
> > 
> > The Swedes was just stupid and stubbornly insisted on their own strategy (the Chief virologist has admitted this) 
> > 
> > > Sweden's 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good.

There were five new deaths there yesterday.  Larkin was doing his usual cherry-picking.

> > >  UK  is 64. 
> > > 
> > > If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero? 
> > > Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the 
> > > population? 
> > 
> > It is a widespread falsehood that Sweden did nothing. They just didn't lock down everything, like restaurants and businesses.
> 
> My understanding is that over the last month or so they did close a lot more and that is what turned the tide to reduce the infection rate. Did they continue to allow restaurants and bars to serve people? I recall seeing a video of people rather tightly packed into an outside dining area on a beautiful day. I assume this was not something that continued in July? Otherwise why would the infection rate change so precipitously in July? 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

It certainly went down a lot. The Swedes do have a national habit of heading off to remote bits of the country (and small adjacent island in the Baltic) in summer, which would reduce opportunities for infection. That's more August than July, but prudent people might have started their holidays early.

-- 
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 12:26:39 PM UTC+10, Ricketty C wrote:
> On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 6:02:38 PM UTC-4, Jasen Betts wrote: 
> > On 2020-08-05, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> wrote: 
> > > 
> > > Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is 
> > > pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch 
> > > resistance, of course). 
> > 
> > The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so 
> > they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to 
> > avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep 
> > the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and 
> > quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.
>
> Here is someone who gets it. However that isn't going to happen in El Dorado county. They have a major highway passing through connecting Scramento to South Tahoe. It's not like they can stop people from stopping to charge their EVs. 
> 
> What can be done is to continue to practice the various safe practices and very importantly do the contact tracing and quarantining that prevents the known infections from spreading. 
> 
> Why don't people understand that as soon as you take your finger out of the dike, the leak resumes? 

It's not so much that John Larkin doesn't understand - he isn't stupid - but rather than he doesn't want to understand. He wants his customers to come back and get on with spending money by buying stuff from Highland Electronics. The idea that this might kill some of his customers and some of his staff is not one that he's willing to entertain.

__ 
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On a sunny day (Wed, 05 Aug 2020 16:29:52 -0700) it happened John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
<r6gmifhuv5bs9ntdpmkr3knvsq0h2i7m9u@4ax.com>:

>On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 21:34:41 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts
><jasen@xnet.co.nz> wrote:
>
>>On 2020-08-05, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Monday again we had two new cases. I think for our county the virus is 
>>> pretty much done yet they keep us shut down (with some staunch 
>>> resistance, of course).
>>
>>The incubation period is up to two weeks before symptoms develop, so
>>they need to persist for that long with no new unexplained cases to
>>avoid a very nasty surprise. After that they still need to keep
>>the borders with other places that are still infected closed, and 
>>quarrantine arrivals and contacts of the known cases etc.
>
>Yes. Shutdown forever.

That is the problem, without every body vaccinated with something that works 100%
eventually all the ones that have no natural anti-bodies will die.
Then the mask wearers will claim how good their system  worked as there are no more cases
and the no-mask wearers will claim masks were never needed at all.

As to vaccination, probably many will die from that, as it seems
many companies go for the big money and the minimum testing in the shortest time.
A total madhouse,
add a few comics politicians in control and you have the chaos we have now.
I have read humans can contaminate cats and dogs, and stray cats are all over the place here.
Sometimes I have to chase those out of the garden.
So will we have a no pets law?

On 06/08/20 00:28, John Larkin wrote:
> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 18:36:42 -0400, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:
> 
>> On 8/5/2020 4:42 PM, John Larkin wrote:
>>> On Wed, 5 Aug 2020 13:26:15 -0700 (PDT), George Herold
>>> <ggherold@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 3:00:38 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 05 Aug 2020 10:51:52 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research
>>>>>>>>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with
>>>>>>>>>> fake scientists.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect
>>>>>>>>> the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant
>>>>>>>>> provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social
>>>>>>>>> distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except
>>>>>>>>> where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member
>>>>>>>>> of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false
>>>>>>>>> sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public
>>>>>>>>> transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for
>>>>>>>>> them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now
>>>>>>>>> to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium
>>>>>>>>> where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density
>>>>>>>>> and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard
>>>>>>>>> lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell...
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where
>>>>>>>> I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of
>>>>>>>> which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a
>>>>>>>> month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake
>>>>>>>> Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go
>>>>>>>> gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> New cases August-1: One.
>>>>>>>> New cases August-2: Two.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it
>>>>>>>> makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we
>>>>>>>> do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food"
>>>>>>>> (mandated, for whatever stupid reason).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes,
>>>>>>>> Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like
>>>>>>> about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Partly that's because many idiot governors decided that protesting with
>>>>>> looting, screaming, zero distancing and almost no mask is a "civil
>>>>>> right" while religious services are not. That had to result in a peak.
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm in Nutcase City, where half the houses have BLM banners in the
>>>>> windows, so I'm not in touch with many real people around the USA.
>>>> I wonder if they all support BLM, or if putting up the sign is
>>>> part of virtue signalling.  "I'm on your side, don't hurt me."
>>>
>>> We have a very small black population, and they don't pose a threat to
>>> anyone. It's just virtue signaling to the neighbors.
>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> I'd guess that a lot of quiet people in flyover country are getting
>>>>> annoyed at the hysteria of the mainstream press, and the annoyance
>>>>> (not to mention unemployment) will become votes in November. What's
>>>>> your impression, where you are?
>>>> I wonder if all the 'moderates' are getting sick of the extremes?
>>>> I was talking with a local shop owner (who I know well... Trump supporter)
>>>> and he was complaining about some of the right wing nut cases who come
>>>> into his business and want to bitch about the left.
>>>> Once you get away from the bigger towns you see no BLM banners.
>>>> Mostly Trump 2020 signs, and the occasional confederate battle flag.
>>>>
>>>> George H.
>>>
>>> I see mostly American flags, or the occasional Giants or 49ers flag.
>>>
>>> We have some Russian neighbors in Truckee, and they fly the American
>>> flag on July 4th too.
>>>
>>> I don't think that many people want to feel like they are racists or
>>> bigots, or want to feel that their country is founded on evil, or hate
>>> cops.
>>>
>>>
>>
>> I wonder if the Trump administration considered authorizing deployment
>> of Russian military advisors in leftist cities to defeat Antifa?
> 
> Don't be daft. Or boring.

Boris Johnson has just ennobled (so they can sit in the
House of Lords) the son of a KGB officer. Nobody can
work out why.

And his brother, but he was an MP and that is merely
nepotism, not treason.

Scandalously, he omitted to ennoble the previous
Speaker of the House of Commons.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/07/31/world/europe/ap-eu-britain-house-of-lords-1st-ld-writethru.html

On 06/08/2020 02:58, Ricketty C wrote:
> On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 3:32:36 PM UTC-4, John Robertson
> wrote:
>> On 2020/08/05 10:51 a.m., Joerg wrote:
>>> On 2020-08-04 15:51, John Larkin wrote:

>>>> When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they
>>>> should insult me instead of answering.

It will keep going unless and until the population has sufficient herd 
immunity to make the R value less than one. After that it will very 
likely persist forever as yet another childhood viral disease like the 
OC43 common cold believed to have jumped species from cattle in 1890.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_OC43

Accounts of what happened back then pretty much mirror the coronavirus 
pandemic we are seeing now except there were cattle dropping dead 
everywhere the year before it made the jump into humans - presumably via 
stockmen. Then people were dying just like now (same symptoms).

If we get a vaccine then herd immunity can be obtained without so many 
deaths but it is still some way off yet. The UK vaccine experts seem to 
think that with the first trial vaccines antibodies may only last for a 
couple of years and we may need a second booster shot even to do that.

Trials in monkeys didn't stop them from getting infected and becoming 
infective but did prevent the lethal complications of viral pneumonia.

>>> There are some people with whom discussions aren't really
>>> worthwhile because they instantly fly into tantrums and cheap ad
>>> hominem attacks.
>>> 
>> 
>> Like Mr. Trump?
>> 
>> John :-#)#
> 
> Trump is good at applying reason.  He just starts with alternative
> facts.

Trump isn't good at anything but lying.

> These two are enjoying their mutual masturbation.  Let them have it
> without interruption.  Neither one is very good at seeing anything
> other than what they want to see.
> 
> Joerg is funny in that he thinks because the infection rate in his
> more rural county is low that means "for our county the virus is
> pretty much done".  Wow!  That is pure ignorance.

He is sort of right. The other way that the transmission can be halted 
is in sparsely populated regions where people do not interact much. You 
have to meet someone who is infected or touch a contaminated surface and 
transfer it to eye, nose or mouth before you can catch this virus.

Eventually it will reach the rural backwaters but it won't be able to 
sustain community transmission there anything like as easily as it can 
in a large overcrowded city with a mass transportation system.

This disease is incredibly good at exploiting weaknesses in overcrowded 
places like inner city slums and mass transportation where people are 
close packed together in random combinations with strangers.

James Lovelock who celebrated his 101st birthday this week, inventor of 
the electron capture detector and Gaia hypothesis has an interesting 
take on this pandemic and remains optimistic about the future.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csz7jm

> Joerg also said, "us fit guys might have the virus at some point and
> never really feel it".  If he really believes that, he should go
> ahead and contract the disease at a coronavirus party, quarantine
> himself until he is over it and then he won't be able to infect
> anyone.

If he is under 45 fit and healthy with no complicating health conditions 
then he is probably right. The KSI risk profile for people in that 
category is roughly equivalent to two years driving on US roads or 6 
years driving on UK roads. It is even better for the under thirties (and 
they have started to take notice of that - ignoring the Covid advice).

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8493483/Britain-suffer-big-Covid-19-outbreaks-people-flout-social-distancing-rules.html

There is still a roughly 5% chance that you could be one of the unlucky 
ones who gets serious complications requiring hospital treatment though. 
One friend so far has been unlucky and may need 6 months to recover.

> You know Larkin won't get himself infected because he is afraid of
> dying from this horrible disease.  He talks the talk of the
> denialist, but he walks the walk of the scaredy cats he ridicules.
> 
> What a two faced Pecksniff.

Whereas you are so scared of this virus that you cannot think straight.

If you are over 70 or a 600lb couch potato with hypertension or diabetes 
you are right to be worried but otherwise you can lookup the latest age 
related risk factor for Covid infection fatality rate in the UK.

The median value across the population is presently 1.3% +/- 0.2% as of 
7/6/2020. The under 45's worst case IFR is now just 0.03% or 300ppm and 
it is a factor of six lower still for the under 25s.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/report-on-nowcasting-and-forecasting-6th-july-2020/

Click on the IFR tab to see the age related breakdown of fatalities.
(you can also look back at previous data there)

-- 
Regards,
Martin Brown