On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 10:55:15 PM UTC+10, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:> On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: > > Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:<snip>> In the U.S., the places with the strictest lock-downs (New York, New > Jersey) had by far the highest death rates.They got the "strict" lock-downs only after the death rate went through the roof. There's typically an 18 day lag between knowing that you are infected with Covid-19and eventual death (if it kills you), so it was a case of locking the stable door after the horse had bolted.> But now that the virus has run its course through those states and they've killed a huge > portion of their elderly nursing home population, through no effort > of theirs, their deaths are falling and now California (strictly- > locked-down for nearly five months), has the most new cases.James Arthur confuses the cause - the high death rate - and the effect it produced - some lockdown. California doesn't seem to have been all that strictly locked-down by international standards.> In short, in the U.S., and Europe, there's precious little evidence > that locking up healthy people reduces SARS-CoV2 spread or mortality.Locking down enough of the population hard enough does make a difference. Mostly what you are talking about is the effect on the population of seeing a lot of people get sick and die, and a lot of fuss in the newspapers about overloaded hospitals. That changes peoples' behavior even when the politicians are spending most of their time worrying about the effect on the economy. What really works is vigorous contact tracing and getting people who might have got infected to self-isolate for 14-days from the contact that that might have infected them. It's a skilled and labour intensive job, and the US medical system doesn't seem to be funded in way that encourages them to take it seriously. The UK National Health should have been able to do it, but apparently some recent Conservative government decided that it was something they they could get away with skimping on. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science
Started by ●August 4, 2020
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 10:39:09 AM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 09:20:22 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > > >On 06/08/2020 15:50, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: > >> On Thu, 6 Aug 2020 10:33:43 +0100, Martin Brown > >> <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > >> > >>> On 06/08/2020 09:38, Bill Sloman wrote: > > > >>>> Covid-19 is much less infectious, and 40% should do the job. > >>> > >>> It isn't all *that* much less infectious - estimates of R0 have gone up > >>> and herd immunity now will require at least 60% uptake possibly more. > >>> > >>> https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity > >>> > >>> I have seen recent credible estimates of R0 at 5.7 which is more than > >>> double what they estimated initially form the Chinese Wuhan data. > >>> > >>> https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/04/07/the-covid19-coronavirus-disease-may-be-twice-as-contagious-as-we-thought/#3ea2d9929a6a > >>> > >>> That puts herd immunity for Covid up at 80+% > >>> (assuming we can get a fully working vaccine) > >> > >> Only if everyone is suceptable. > >> > >> https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-than-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies/ > >> > >> What if R is high but only among a fraction of the population? > > > >The fraction of the population that do not get infected appears to be > >vanishingly small. You forget that hapless US choir that managed to put > >a bound of 87% on it and so killed some of their members. > > > >The proportion of those infected that are truly asymptomatic has been > >going down as more symptoms are added to the official list. But you are > >still infectious without showing symptoms - that is how it escapes. > > > >> This thing seems to peak and fade at low case infection levels, far > >> below 80%. > > > >It only stops rising exponentially when there are strong interventions. > > That creates "The reserve army of the uninfected." That works about as > well as Communism worked. > > >Most of Europe is losing control again now with rising summer spikes as > >young holiday makers and alcohol fuelled antics break social distancing. > > > >UK locked down late and was well into exponential growth because somehow > >the experts advising the government had not noticed that the doubling > >time was not the 5 or 6 days of their models but 3 days in reality. A > >week delay of lockdown made the problem in the UK and resulting > >fatalities 4x higher than what they could have been. > > > >Even so it was a lockdown that was essential in London but not really > >needed in most of the rest of the country. UK is incredibly centralised > >the entire country is run for the benefit of London and the South East. > > > >UK test and trace is predictably a disaster run by dodgy subcontractors > >who have previous for defrauding the Ministry of Justice! The UK's DIY > >"world beating" phone app is a steaming heap of dingoes kidneys. > > > >> R is often circular reasoning. > > > >I don't particularly like R because it is not easily derived from > >measurable data and is subject to ad hoc modelling assumptions. The case > >doubling time (data smoothed as a 7 day rolling average) is much better. > > > >Only when we find the herd immunity threshold will we truly have an > >accurate value for R0. The slop in the UK values is huge right now. > > > >Curiously they are seeing rising infection rates but much lower hospital > >admissions (thought to be because most of them are fit young people). > >The same anomaly was observed in Germany when the ski set were infected > >right at the outset (German efficiency also played a part). > > Curious and relatively good. The places seeing a secondary bump in new > cases are mostly not showing a corresponding bump in deaths. Far > southern hemisphere might be an exception to that pattern, but all the > data is suspect now.The other rather large exception is the many southern US states which have seen both the infections and the deaths rise. The only times when the death rates don't appear to be rising is when the infection rise is recent (since it takes some weeks to die of this horrible disease) and when the rise is only slight where the improvements in care mitigate the deaths. This is not rocket science. If you don't ignore the data you don't like, the facts are easy to see. Meanwhile Larkin is taking all the same precautions to stay infection free as the people he denigrates. Yeah, pretty much what you would expect from someone like him. -- Rick C. ---+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging ---+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 10:55:53 -0400, Phil Hobbs <pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:>On 2020-08-07 10:51, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 06:02:32 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com >> wrote: >> >>> On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 7:49:33 AM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: >>>> Am 05.08.20 um 13:28 schrieb Phil Hobbs: >>>> >>>>> I wear a mask when I'm in the store or someplace like that, but >>>>> primarily to be polite to the people who work there. >>> >>> Same here. I'm not infected, I don't pose any risk to anyone, but >>> there's no way they can know that. Plus then I don't have to shave. :) >> >> Masks are mandatory in grocery stores here, usually enforced, so I >> keep my American Flag mask in my pocket. Problem is, it gets all >> tangled with my glasses, and fogs me up, so I take off the glasses and >> can't see what I'm buying. It's just a plot to get us to buy more. >> >> But it's easy to shop now, no more density metering, no lines to get >> in. Saturday a bit before noon is great at Safeway; lots of parking, >> all stocked up, zero wait to check out. >It's like that here too. We're way past the peak, fortunately. > >> >> I've probably has the virus anyhow. > >One of the antibody tests has a low enough false call rate to be useful >IIRC. > >> >> Half, maybe less, of the people here wear a mask outdoors. >> >> >>> >>>> Me too, but primarily for the same reason I have a 10 dB pad >>>> on the input of my spectrum analyzer normally. > >>>> >>>> I should have done that before I shot my SNA-33. :-( >>> >>> Only a 10dB pad? You're a wildman! :-) >>> >>> Cheers, >>> James "20dB SA pad" Arthur >> >> 20 dB is sensible on a sampling scope, and the math is easier than >> 10dB. It's a 10:1 probe. > >I have enough sampling heads that I treat them as disposables. Haven't >blown one up yet. The 70820A's bridges are built in, so that's another >story.I've bought some ebay heads that had a bad channel; I don't think I've blown one up myself. I have a shelf lined with SD-series heads with original value, adjusted for inflation, a good chunk of a megabuck. Does anybody know of an outfit that can repair 11801-series scopes? The heads are hybrids and likely not repairable, except for the eeprom. https://www.dropbox.com/sh/9lyg8cxelpgj3fb/AACpUnryGVT7TC-_GbcboEmFa?dl=0 -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 05:55:10 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com wrote:>On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: >> >> > >> > No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll >> > really find out in winter. >> >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. >> >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. >> >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, >> but not to Sweden. >> >> Dream on. >> >> Gerhard > >But why only compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors?I know some native-born Swedes. They think that Norwegians are stupid barbarians.
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
fredag den 7. august 2020 kl. 19.45.21 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin:> On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 05:55:10 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com > wrote: > > >On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: > >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: > >> > >> > > >> > No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll > >> > really find out in winter. > >> > >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. > >> > >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times > >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% > >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. > >> > >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, > >> but not to Sweden. > >> > >> Dream on. > >> > >> Gerhard > > > >But why only compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors? > > I know some native-born Swedes. They think that Norwegians are stupid > barbarians.Scandinavia is like siblings, fighting and calling each other names is mandatory but none of it is really serious
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 2:07:30 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:> fredag den 7. august 2020 kl. 19.45.21 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin: > > On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 05:55:10 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com > > wrote: > > > > >On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: > > >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: > > >> > > >> > > > >> > No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll > > >> > really find out in winter. > > >> > > >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. > > >> > > >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times > > >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% > > >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. > > >> > > >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, > > >> but not to Sweden. > > >> > > >> Dream on. > > >> > > >> Gerhard > > > > > >But why only compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors? > > > > I know some native-born Swedes. They think that Norwegians are stupid > > barbarians. > > Scandinavia is like siblings, fighting and calling each other names is mandatory > but none of it is really seriousI expect it is one of those things where Larkin's Swedish friends said one thing and Larkin heard something different, like, "Oh, those Norwegians are rascals" which Larkin translates to "Norwegians are the filth on the sole of my boot!" Even if Larkin's friends did say something rude about Norwegians, how can he extrapolate that to an entire country? Oh, because he is Larkin. Like Trump he thinks the one opinion he heard is "many people are saying this, lots of people". I'm sorry, but I used to think the world was populated by people who could get along when they needed to. This coronavirus thing shows me that I am an idealist and most people have no interest whatsoever in ever trying to find a happy medium. Mostly people like Larkin. -- Rick C. --+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging --+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 11:07:24 -0700 (PDT), Lasse Langwadt Christensen <langwadt@fonz.dk> wrote:>fredag den 7. august 2020 kl. 19.45.21 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin: >> On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 05:55:10 -0700 (PDT), dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com >> wrote: >> >> >On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: >> >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: >> >> >> >> > >> >> > No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll >> >> > really find out in winter. >> >> >> >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. >> >> >> >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times >> >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% >> >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. >> >> >> >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, >> >> but not to Sweden. >> >> >> >> Dream on. >> >> >> >> Gerhard >> > >> >But why only compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors? >> >> I know some native-born Swedes. They think that Norwegians are stupid >> barbarians. > >Scandinavia is like siblings, fighting and calling each other names is mandatory >but none of it is really seriousIf you draw a graph, how much people like one another vs how closely they are related, it dips below zero somewhere just past first cousins. The Swedes aren't all that bright either. Some can't spin, or even ski backwards. I'm teaching a few. DGMS about their cooking.
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 10:57:11 AM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote:> Am 07.08.20 um 14:55 schrieb dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com: > > On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: > >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: > >> > >>> > >>> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll > >>> really find out in winter. > >> > >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. > >> > >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times > >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% > >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. > >> > >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, > >> but not to Sweden. > >> > >> Dream on. > >> > >> Gerhard > > > > But why only compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors? > > Because there is not much difference between Norway and Sweden, same > structure, different implementation. There's a big difference between > Norway and Northern Italy.But if you're arguing that lock-down results depend on a country being exactly like Sweden, then there's no applicability to the rest of the world. If lockdowns worked, there ought to be some correlation between the <stringency or timing of the lockdown> and mortality. Instead, I've only seen studies in Europe that find essentially no correlation, and I see that in the U.S.A. the most locked-down states and facilities places imaginable -- prisons and nursing homes -- have by far the highest infection rates and deaths. California, which locked down earliest and hardest (and longest), was not saved by that strategy, they merely delayed their reckoning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdowns#United_States They've never let up, my mom's going crazy, and despite all of that locking down, California is now the #1 source of new cases.> > This Danish economist compares mortality in 24 European countries > > and finds no relation of death rates to lock-down level. Sweden's > > death rate is higher than its locked-down neighbors, but lower than > > strict lock-down UK, Spain, and Italy, and only slightly higher > > than strict lock-down France. > > Strict lock down followed from the piles of deep frozen dead corpses, > they did not lock down before it was way too late. But even then it > worked, it just took some time to reduce the numbers until they could > follow the infection chains again. > > In Germany we did it quite early, no overflows of the hospital system. > We could even import cases from the other side of the french border, > even fly in some Italians who required respiration.That same story applies to most of the United States, too. A handful of the worst-run states account for by far most of the problems and deaths, while the other states have had relatively little difficulty. Blaming the whole U.S. for New York, New Jersey and California would be like blaming Germany for Europe (which, taken as a continent, is doing the same as the U.S., despite getting the virus later, with better tests available, and more time to react).> We were able to follow many infection chains and confine them. Mostly > winter tourists, low-wage meat industry workers from the Balkan and > religious people who did suppose wrongly that coming together to > praise the $(GOD) of their choice could not be punished.I suspect in the end Germany will be found to either have some partial immunity from some earlier benign coronavirus event, or if that is not true, that (like California) China's Giftiges Gift will smolder through Germany slowly, until the virus has immunized enough people that it can't find enough new hosts.> (That much praying, i.e organized begging for better than my > pre-planned outcome would really annoy me if I was $(GOD). > And that mostly on Sunday, my day OFF!) > > > Our GNP dropped by 10%, Sweden dropped 9.5%. Now that's an advantage! > It seems, Sweden was not so shut-down-free after all. > Our newest numbers in .de are nearly back to normal for the inland, > exports have not yet recovered that good. > > And now that the restrictions are lifted here, the numbers are > rising again.Of course. Hiding doesn't make a world-wide virus go away. You didn't eliminate it, you just delayed it. If there's a vaccine soon, you will have won a big victory. If not, you'll join the rest of the world.> Tourists. And we'll see the results of last weekend's > Anti-Corona-demonstration next week. 20000 sheeple. Let's make a > chain of humans! Firmly hand-in-hand against that non-existing virus! > > > > > https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665588 > > > > Summarized here (without the need to download the paper) > > https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/did-lockdowns-work-evidence-says-no.php > > > > In the U.S., the places with the strictest lock-downs (New York, New > > Jersey) had by far the highest death rates. > > No, they had lock downs because of the highest death rates by far.That's simply not correct. New York's governor issued a "stay at home order" on March 20th. https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-what-a-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-means-in-new-york-california-washington-and-other-states As of the earliest data I could find, March 22, New York had had only 63 deaths from China's Gift. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-archive.page New York did *not* lock down late, nor was it only after New York had heaps of dead corpses. They locked down like a communist utopia. Not only did that not protect them, but they went on to be the source of 2/3rds of infections across the rest of the United States.> And the lock downs were not that strict. As long as you meet > unmasked people in the subway and then leave town to your > healthy habitat, there is a sneak path.New Yorkers were ordered to stay at home. I don't know how tighter a lock-down could possibly be, than that.> But now that the virus > > has run its course through those states and they've killed a huge > > portion of their elderly nursing home population, through no effort > > of theirs, > > There are enough states left to keep you busy for some months > with this method of locking down when it's really too late. > > The Chinese arc-welded the doors of those who protested too much. > No, I don't support that. But they got it fixed.If the Chinese got it fixed, there wouldn't have been a world-wide pandemic in the first place. If lock-downs worked, the virus never would have left China.> > Cheers, > > GerhardCheers, James Arthur
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 7:39:09 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Fri, 7 Aug 2020 09:20:22 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:> >It only stops rising exponentially when there are strong interventions. > > That creates "The reserve army of the uninfected." That works about as > well as Communism worked.No, it doesn't create a crowd of uninfected persons. Childbirth does that. It might PRESERVE uninfected populations, though. Get a dictionary and look up those verbs... Public health measures oughtn't be so confusing, but that seems to be the direction your spin is aimed. Don't aim there, it's impolite.
Reply by ●August 7, 20202020-08-07
On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 5:58:22 PM UTC-4, dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:> On Friday, August 7, 2020 at 10:57:11 AM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: > > Am 07.08.20 um 14:55 schrieb dagmargoodboat@yahoo.com: > > > On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:41:15 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote: > > >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: > > >> > > >>> > > >>> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll > > >>> really find out in winter. > > >> > > >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. > > >> > > >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times > > >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% > > >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. > > >> > > >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, > > >> but not to Sweden. > > >> > > >> Dream on. > > >> > > >> Gerhard > > > > > > But why only compare Sweden to its immediate neighbors? > > > > Because there is not much difference between Norway and Sweden, same > > structure, different implementation. There's a big difference between > > Norway and Northern Italy. > > But if you're arguing that lock-down results depend on a country > being exactly like Sweden, then there's no applicability to the > rest of the world. > > If lockdowns worked, there ought to be some correlation between the > <stringency or timing of the lockdown> and mortality. Instead, I've > only seen studies in Europe that find essentially no correlation, > and I see that in the U.S.A. the most locked-down states and facilities > places imaginable -- prisons and nursing homes -- have by far the > highest infection rates and deaths. > > California, which locked down earliest and hardest (and longest), > was not saved by that strategy, they merely delayed their reckoning. > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_lockdowns#United_States > > They've never let up, my mom's going crazy, and despite all of that > locking down, California is now the #1 source of new cases. > > > > This Danish economist compares mortality in 24 European countries > > > and finds no relation of death rates to lock-down level. Sweden's > > > death rate is higher than its locked-down neighbors, but lower than > > > strict lock-down UK, Spain, and Italy, and only slightly higher > > > than strict lock-down France. > > > > Strict lock down followed from the piles of deep frozen dead corpses, > > they did not lock down before it was way too late. But even then it > > worked, it just took some time to reduce the numbers until they could > > follow the infection chains again. > > > > In Germany we did it quite early, no overflows of the hospital system. > > We could even import cases from the other side of the french border, > > even fly in some Italians who required respiration. > > That same story applies to most of the United States, too. A handful > of the worst-run states account for by far most of the problems and > deaths, while the other states have had relatively little difficulty. > > Blaming the whole U.S. for New York, New Jersey and California would > be like blaming Germany for Europe (which, taken as a continent, is > doing the same as the U.S., despite getting the virus later, with > better tests available, and more time to react). > > > We were able to follow many infection chains and confine them. Mostly > > winter tourists, low-wage meat industry workers from the Balkan and > > religious people who did suppose wrongly that coming together to > > praise the $(GOD) of their choice could not be punished. > > I suspect in the end Germany will be found to either have some partial > immunity from some earlier benign coronavirus event, or if that is not > true, that (like California) China's Giftiges Gift will smolder through > Germany slowly, until the virus has immunized enough people that it > can't find enough new hosts. > > > (That much praying, i.e organized begging for better than my > > pre-planned outcome would really annoy me if I was $(GOD). > > And that mostly on Sunday, my day OFF!) > > > > > > Our GNP dropped by 10%, Sweden dropped 9.5%. Now that's an advantage! > > It seems, Sweden was not so shut-down-free after all. > > Our newest numbers in .de are nearly back to normal for the inland, > > exports have not yet recovered that good. > > > > And now that the restrictions are lifted here, the numbers are > > rising again. > > Of course. Hiding doesn't make a world-wide virus go away. You didn't > eliminate it, you just delayed it. If there's a vaccine soon, you will > have won a big victory. If not, you'll join the rest of the world. > > > Tourists. And we'll see the results of last weekend's > > Anti-Corona-demonstration next week. 20000 sheeple. Let's make a > > chain of humans! Firmly hand-in-hand against that non-existing virus! > > > > > > > > https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665588 > > > > > > Summarized here (without the need to download the paper) > > > https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/did-lockdowns-work-evidence-says-no.php > > > > > > In the U.S., the places with the strictest lock-downs (New York, New > > > Jersey) had by far the highest death rates. > > > > No, they had lock downs because of the highest death rates by far. > > That's simply not correct. New York's governor issued a "stay at home order" on March 20th. > > https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-what-a-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-means-in-new-york-california-washington-and-other-states > > As of the earliest data I could find, March 22, New York had had > only 63 deaths from China's Gift. > > https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-archive.page > > New York did *not* lock down late, nor was it only after New York had > heaps of dead corpses. > > They locked down like a communist utopia. Not only did that not protect > them, but they went on to be the source of 2/3rds of infections across > the rest of the United States. > > > And the lock downs were not that strict. As long as you meet > > unmasked people in the subway and then leave town to your > > healthy habitat, there is a sneak path. > > New Yorkers were ordered to stay at home. I don't know how tighter a > lock-down could possibly be, than that. > > > > But now that the virus > > > has run its course through those states and they've killed a huge > > > portion of their elderly nursing home population, through no effort > > > of theirs, > > > > There are enough states left to keep you busy for some months > > with this method of locking down when it's really too late. > > > > The Chinese arc-welded the doors of those who protested too much. > > No, I don't support that. But they got it fixed. > > If the Chinese got it fixed, there wouldn't have been a world-wide > pandemic in the first place. > > If lock-downs worked, the virus never would have left China.I realize who I am responding to, but you don't understand what needs to be done to prevent the spread of this infection. You use the term "lock down" in spite of the fact that this is not what anyone (other than possibly the Chinese) do to mitigate the virus. Do you understand that "lock down" is not at all the same as social distancing, wearing masks and avoiding large groups in confined spaces? I realized that you were not understanding the concept as soon as you mentioned nursing homes and prisons. There is pretty much nothing about prisons that is intended to minimize the spread of disease. Being locked in a cell for hours each day is not going to prevent the spread of disease when you sit elbow to elbow while eating and standing close to others at other times in the day. Are they given masks to wear in prison? Are they worn? The other factor in your BS analysis is that you talk about "lock down" as if the government regulations were the most important factor. No, the regulations are important, but more important is how the people follow the recommendations and requirements. You say New York had a stay at home order on March 20 and 20 days later the infection rate peaked on April 9! That's a pretty solid connection, don't you think! I do recall a picture of New Yorkers huddled together watching the hospital ship roll into town, literally oblivious to the problem the ship was there to help with. Likewise Florida has a large population who ignore the pandemic because they wanted to visit the beach. That clearly caused a lot of infections. The state had all manner of recommendations even if not requirements. So these people ignored the recommendations and crowded the beaches. Literally all of your analysis is flawed in a similar manner taking for fact many things that are not fact. The Chinese did fix the infection in their country. It was up to the rest of the world to deal with their own infections. If they don't want infections from other countries they need to deal with their own borders. Blaming China is a Trump thing he does because idiots will listen to him. You can blame China for all your problems, but they are still your problems and you let them happen. Quit whining like a little kid. Man up and do something useful. Help fight this disease by encouraging people to stay at home and when they have to go out wear masks, keep their distance and just treat this disease like what it is, a deadly disease that changes lives forever or kills outright after weeks of suffering. Stop being a f**king baby! -- Rick C. --++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging --++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
