Reply by Ricketty C August 17, 20202020-08-17
On Monday, August 17, 2020 at 12:20:02 PM UTC-4, Lasse Langwadt Christensen wrote:
> mandag den 17. august 2020 kl. 18.02.17 UTC+2 skrev Ricketty C: > > > > Pure BS. Requiring people to stay at home and not spread a contagion is not "draconian". I don't know about the rest of the world, but it is common place in the US to take actions to protect the public health. We fought malaria here by forcing people to take actions against mosquitoes. When serious disease broke out people have been quarantined. This is not draconian. > > > > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobson_v._Massachusetts
I wonder how many holdouts there will be once a CV-19 vaccine is found? There are a lot of nutcases in the US who think vaccines are inherently bad for you and prefer to live under the herd immunity umbrella. That might not work so well with CV-19. The initial vaccines may not protect very well and may not be recommended for certain age groups allowing the disease to continue at a low level. There are no magic solutions. In the US we seem to be operating under the "vaccine around the corner" mode of fight. I'm not sure Dudley Do-Right really is on the way to save Nell from the evil Snidley Whiplash virus. -- Rick C. ++-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging ++-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by Lasse Langwadt Christensen August 17, 20202020-08-17
mandag den 17. august 2020 kl. 18.02.17 UTC+2 skrev Ricketty C:
> On Monday, August 17, 2020 at 5:24:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote: > > On 14/08/2020 10:57, David Brown wrote: > > > On 13/08/2020 18:40, Martin Brown wrote: > > > > >> Indeed. Though even with imperfect information decisions have to be made. > > >> That is one reason why I am prepared to cut the UK government a fair > > >> amount of slack. > > > > > > You are right that decisions have to be made on imperfect data, and > > > sometimes that means choices that are judged poor when looked at with > > > hindsight, despite being rational and justified at the time. > > > > > > However, the UK government has made a balls-up from the start - they had > > > /obviously/ got it wrong. Bojo's stubborn idiocy about rejecting > > > everything EU-related meant that they rejected an invitation for a > > > combined effort on getting PPE supplies. The result was that British > > > hospital staff were wearing bin liners instead of medical protection > > > equipment. > > > > I think Boris is a self entitled opportunist who still wants ot be > > "World King" It will be interesting to see how Brexit ends up. > > > > > This has been followed by a continuous series of dithering, > > > mixed-messages, and utterly unrealistic promises. > > > > > > Even the decisions that were made based on "the best information > > > currently available" were wrong - because in Bojo's little mind, the > > > "best" information to use is whatever ideas sound most optimistic, not > > > whatever appears to be most /realistic/. > > > > > > Yes, it's fair to cut any government or leader a bit of slack in a time > > > like this - but not so much slack for Bojo to be judged anything better > > > than "totally incompetent". > > > > I do not disagree. Looks like they are going to blame it all on PHE. > > That particular sacrificial lamb is being prepared for slaughter as we > > speak. I think they are hoping to divert attention away from the > > disastrous Covid fake A level grades debacle which really is a sign of > > the depths of monumental incompetence of this government. > > > > >> > > >>>> Based on the UK's present 45k fatality to date that puts 60% herd > > >>>> immunity on a community wide basis at 450k fatalities (80% 600k). > > >>>> OTOH if you could keep it contained exclusively in the under 45's you > > >>>> can almost get to 60% herd immunity just with another 20k deaths. > > >>> > > >>> That's one idea - but since we don't know if herd immunity is achievable > > >>> at all, it's a pretty risky one! > > >> > > >> Until we have an effective vaccine it is the only game in town. > > > > > > No, it is not - for two reasons. One is that herd immunity is probably > > > not possible for this virus - and certainly extremely costly even if it > > > turns out to be possible. > > > > Herd immunity from a vaccine is the only realistic way to get out of > > this mad house. Otherwise we are stuck with the new normal forever. > > That is like saying the only way to win WWII was to develop the a-bomb. No, it was a good tool to expedite the end of the war, but we would have won either way. > > Likewise, the various measures are shown to reduce the spread of the virus. Once the infection rate is ADEQUATELY low, we can track and trace effectively. Even if there are outbreaks, we can deal with those locally without shutting down the nation's or world's economy. This IS working in many places. The fact that they have an outbreak does not mean it isn't working. > > When it is massively spread as in the US it shows that precautions are not taken seriously. Too many corners are cut. Too many risks are taken on a regular basis. > > The economy will improve when we fight this virus the way we should and do so consistently. Right now people are acting like it is a problem for someone else to solve. > > > > > The other is that there is a entirely possible alternative of fighting > > > to minimise the infections and spread of the virus through travel > > > restrictions, lockdowns, restricting social gatherings, encouraging > > > hygiene and social distancing, and tracking outbreaks. Other countries > > > manage it. > > > > Even New Zealand which I had thought was able to nail it and be > > sufficiently remote has lost control again. This virus is just stealthy > > enough to escape from any attempts to lock it down in a Western > > democracy. The only places that have really managed to get it under > > control have done it by draconian restrictions on personal freedom. > > Pure BS. Requiring people to stay at home and not spread a contagion is not "draconian". I don't know about the rest of the world, but it is common place in the US to take actions to protect the public health. We fought malaria here by forcing people to take actions against mosquitoes. When serious disease broke out people have been quarantined. This is not draconian. >
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobson_v._Massachusetts
Reply by Ricketty C August 17, 20202020-08-17
On Monday, August 17, 2020 at 5:24:56 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 14/08/2020 10:57, David Brown wrote: > > On 13/08/2020 18:40, Martin Brown wrote: > > >> Indeed. Though even with imperfect information decisions have to be made. > >> That is one reason why I am prepared to cut the UK government a fair > >> amount of slack. > > > > You are right that decisions have to be made on imperfect data, and > > sometimes that means choices that are judged poor when looked at with > > hindsight, despite being rational and justified at the time. > > > > However, the UK government has made a balls-up from the start - they had > > /obviously/ got it wrong. Bojo's stubborn idiocy about rejecting > > everything EU-related meant that they rejected an invitation for a > > combined effort on getting PPE supplies. The result was that British > > hospital staff were wearing bin liners instead of medical protection > > equipment. > > I think Boris is a self entitled opportunist who still wants ot be > "World King" It will be interesting to see how Brexit ends up. > > > This has been followed by a continuous series of dithering, > > mixed-messages, and utterly unrealistic promises. > > > > Even the decisions that were made based on "the best information > > currently available" were wrong - because in Bojo's little mind, the > > "best" information to use is whatever ideas sound most optimistic, not > > whatever appears to be most /realistic/. > > > > Yes, it's fair to cut any government or leader a bit of slack in a time > > like this - but not so much slack for Bojo to be judged anything better > > than "totally incompetent". > > I do not disagree. Looks like they are going to blame it all on PHE. > That particular sacrificial lamb is being prepared for slaughter as we > speak. I think they are hoping to divert attention away from the > disastrous Covid fake A level grades debacle which really is a sign of > the depths of monumental incompetence of this government. > > >> > >>>> Based on the UK's present 45k fatality to date that puts 60% herd > >>>> immunity on a community wide basis at 450k fatalities (80% 600k). > >>>> OTOH if you could keep it contained exclusively in the under 45's you > >>>> can almost get to 60% herd immunity just with another 20k deaths. > >>> > >>> That's one idea - but since we don't know if herd immunity is achievable > >>> at all, it's a pretty risky one! > >> > >> Until we have an effective vaccine it is the only game in town. > > > > No, it is not - for two reasons. One is that herd immunity is probably > > not possible for this virus - and certainly extremely costly even if it > > turns out to be possible. > > Herd immunity from a vaccine is the only realistic way to get out of > this mad house. Otherwise we are stuck with the new normal forever.
That is like saying the only way to win WWII was to develop the a-bomb. No, it was a good tool to expedite the end of the war, but we would have won either way. Likewise, the various measures are shown to reduce the spread of the virus. Once the infection rate is ADEQUATELY low, we can track and trace effectively. Even if there are outbreaks, we can deal with those locally without shutting down the nation's or world's economy. This IS working in many places. The fact that they have an outbreak does not mean it isn't working. When it is massively spread as in the US it shows that precautions are not taken seriously. Too many corners are cut. Too many risks are taken on a regular basis. The economy will improve when we fight this virus the way we should and do so consistently. Right now people are acting like it is a problem for someone else to solve.
> > The other is that there is a entirely possible alternative of fighting > > to minimise the infections and spread of the virus through travel > > restrictions, lockdowns, restricting social gatherings, encouraging > > hygiene and social distancing, and tracking outbreaks. Other countries > > manage it. > > Even New Zealand which I had thought was able to nail it and be > sufficiently remote has lost control again. This virus is just stealthy > enough to escape from any attempts to lock it down in a Western > democracy. The only places that have really managed to get it under > control have done it by draconian restrictions on personal freedom.
Pure BS. Requiring people to stay at home and not spread a contagion is not "draconian". I don't know about the rest of the world, but it is common place in the US to take actions to protect the public health. We fought malaria here by forcing people to take actions against mosquitoes. When serious disease broke out people have been quarantined. This is not draconian.
> > And despite the economic and social costs involved in limiting the > > disease, it is still vastly cheaper and less damaging than any "herd > > immunity" tactic, as well as having far lower risk of failure. > > I think on this one we will have to agree to disagree. The true answer > will only be discernable after the whole thing has ended until then it > is a judgement call and both viewpoints have some validity.
I don't think we need to wait for it to be "over". We have information available. The main point is that the economy IS taking a huge hit and will continue to do so as long as we ignore the facts of the disease and the infection rages. It is science. It's not rocket science. Any high schooler can grasp the concepts and understand why we need to take action against the disease.
> I am inclined to the view that the economy could be run at a decent > fraction of capacity with the under 45's not under lockdown with minimal > fatalities compared to what we have experienced already. De facto that > is now what is happening anyway since social media means that the young > have got the idea that the consequences for them are not usually > serious. Teenagers and young adults feel immortal at the best of times.
Yes, exactly, many of the under 45 crowd have decided they don't need to do much since they are not "likely" to be impacted. That is one of the main problems with this disease, it has a larger impact on the old. If it mainly impacted those under 5, we would be seeing heavily infected cities bombed with nukes.
> >> The > >> objective at present must be to limit the economic damage with the > >> fewest overall number of fatalities. And that includes those who die > >> indirectly from other serious conditions through not being treated due > >> to Covid. Or because hospitals and governments run out of money. > > > > The /worst/ choice is prolonged mid-level lockdown and restriction, > > which is what you get when some twat politician says "balance". It is > > better to take a harder but shorter economic hit to get this thing under > > control. > > On this we are agreed. That is a part of the reason why the UK death > toll was so high. We refused to lock down until Cheltenham races and > various big international football matches were over. Unfortunately too > many of those attending were from Covid infection hot spots.
Sorry, it didn't need to involve hot spots. Either you reduce the infection, or your actions spread the infection. You don't need to involve things you can't control or measure. I really don't know why people want to bother with the flourishes when we don't address the main issue as we should. -- Rick C. ++-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging ++-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by Martin Brown August 17, 20202020-08-17
On 14/08/2020 15:19, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Fri, 14 Aug 2020 09:21:09 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > >> On 13/08/2020 20:59, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 17:57:55 +0100, Martin Brown >>> <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: >>> >>>> On 13/08/2020 16:01, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>>>> On Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:27:54 +0100, Martin Brown >>>>> <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: >>>> >>>>>> Looking at our UK 7 day average curve I think it is just at the start of >>>>>> exponential growth again (R>1). By the end of next week I will be >>>>>> certain. Spain and France are ahead of us and now well on their way up. >>>>> >>>>> There are secondary humps all over the world. Australia is the poster >>>>> child for that. >>>> >>>> If they don't successfully contain it then it will run free. >>> >>> It will do that anyhow. They can change the time sacle. >> >> It is an isolated large continent sparsely populated with relatively few >> high density population centres they might be able to confine it well >> enough for the infection to die out. UK might also have done so too if >> we have been a bit more on the ball at the beginning. > > C19 probably started with ONE infected human. All it takes to seed > exponential growth in any fairly dense population is one new case, and > every such country on the planet has many now. Border controls are too > late, and couldn't be maintained forever anyhow.
I agree that some of the border controls are more xenophobic posturing than effective health measures. UK ban against Spain including holiday islands that are way safer than mainland UK being a concrete example. Whole country quarantine rules are just way too coarse to be useful. The virus lurks in the places with the highest population densities and worst infrastructure (these tend not to be tourist attractions). The notable exceptions being some major global capital cities where extreme poverty and overcrowding sit side by side with luxury hotels.
> It could have been managed a lot better than anyone did, but walling > off and locking down a country forever isn't practical.
We do need to try and slow down the spread so that existing health facilities and hospitals can cope with the spread of the virus at least until we have a working vaccine and sufficient doses. Problems are now arising in after care and rehabilitation which is reaching its capacity limits. We have to lock down against the Covid hotspots to control it. Science allows us to make verifiable quantitative predictions and based on recently published ppm fatality rates it looks to me like the following predictions are reasonable to within +/- 30% on the timeline. All of the larger countries now seem to be on a semi-stable linear trajectory that has a specific gradient that reflects the level of counter measures against the virus that they have adopted. Brazil will overtake USA on ppm fatalities this week and will overtake the UK by mid September to become the world leader in killing its own population. US will overtake the UK by the end of September. Perhaps after you ditch Trump the USA might take better care of its people. The rate of increase of ppm fatalities per day in the respective countries at present based on July averages are: Brazil +5.0ppm US +2.5ppm UK +0.8ppm (Sweden is about the same) Italy +0.1ppm That means that to reach 60% herd immunity when there will be 6,000 ppm fatalities if we assume a 1% CFR. It has about 1200 days ~ 4 years still to run for Brazil and about double that in the USA. The new normal is here to stay unless and until we have a working vaccine against Covid. -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by Martin Brown August 17, 20202020-08-17
On 14/08/2020 10:57, David Brown wrote:
> On 13/08/2020 18:40, Martin Brown wrote:
>> Indeed. Though even with imperfect information decisions have to be made. >> That is one reason why I am prepared to cut the UK government a fair >> amount of slack. > > You are right that decisions have to be made on imperfect data, and > sometimes that means choices that are judged poor when looked at with > hindsight, despite being rational and justified at the time. > > However, the UK government has made a balls-up from the start - they had > /obviously/ got it wrong. Bojo's stubborn idiocy about rejecting > everything EU-related meant that they rejected an invitation for a > combined effort on getting PPE supplies. The result was that British > hospital staff were wearing bin liners instead of medical protection > equipment.
I think Boris is a self entitled opportunist who still wants ot be "World King" It will be interesting to see how Brexit ends up.
> This has been followed by a continuous series of dithering, > mixed-messages, and utterly unrealistic promises. > > Even the decisions that were made based on "the best information > currently available" were wrong - because in Bojo's little mind, the > "best" information to use is whatever ideas sound most optimistic, not > whatever appears to be most /realistic/. > > Yes, it's fair to cut any government or leader a bit of slack in a time > like this - but not so much slack for Bojo to be judged anything better > than "totally incompetent".
I do not disagree. Looks like they are going to blame it all on PHE. That particular sacrificial lamb is being prepared for slaughter as we speak. I think they are hoping to divert attention away from the disastrous Covid fake A level grades debacle which really is a sign of the depths of monumental incompetence of this government.
>> >>>> Based on the UK's present 45k fatality to date that puts 60% herd >>>> immunity on a community wide basis at 450k fatalities (80% 600k). >>>> OTOH if you could keep it contained exclusively in the under 45's you >>>> can almost get to 60% herd immunity just with another 20k deaths. >>> >>> That's one idea - but since we don't know if herd immunity is achievable >>> at all, it's a pretty risky one! >> >> Until we have an effective vaccine it is the only game in town. > > No, it is not - for two reasons. One is that herd immunity is probably > not possible for this virus - and certainly extremely costly even if it > turns out to be possible.
Herd immunity from a vaccine is the only realistic way to get out of this mad house. Otherwise we are stuck with the new normal forever.
> The other is that there is a entirely possible alternative of fighting > to minimise the infections and spread of the virus through travel > restrictions, lockdowns, restricting social gatherings, encouraging > hygiene and social distancing, and tracking outbreaks. Other countries > manage it.
Even New Zealand which I had thought was able to nail it and be sufficiently remote has lost control again. This virus is just stealthy enough to escape from any attempts to lock it down in a Western democracy. The only places that have really managed to get it under control have done it by draconian restrictions on personal freedom.
> And despite the economic and social costs involved in limiting the > disease, it is still vastly cheaper and less damaging than any "herd > immunity" tactic, as well as having far lower risk of failure.
I think on this one we will have to agree to disagree. The true answer will only be discernable after the whole thing has ended until then it is a judgement call and both viewpoints have some validity. I am inclined to the view that the economy could be run at a decent fraction of capacity with the under 45's not under lockdown with minimal fatalities compared to what we have experienced already. De facto that is now what is happening anyway since social media means that the young have got the idea that the consequences for them are not usually serious. Teenagers and young adults feel immortal at the best of times.
>> The >> objective at present must be to limit the economic damage with the >> fewest overall number of fatalities. And that includes those who die >> indirectly from other serious conditions through not being treated due >> to Covid. Or because hospitals and governments run out of money. > > The /worst/ choice is prolonged mid-level lockdown and restriction, > which is what you get when some twat politician says "balance". It is > better to take a harder but shorter economic hit to get this thing under > control.
On this we are agreed. That is a part of the reason why the UK death toll was so high. We refused to lock down until Cheltenham races and various big international football matches were over. Unfortunately too many of those attending were from Covid infection hot spots.
>> That joy is still to come. I know a lot about Japan having lived there >> and was bemused by the breakdown of bilateral trade negotiations earlier >> this week over Stilton cheese! Only expats buy it so the cheese market >> in Japan is of negligible value. Our "negotiators" are utterly clueless. >> >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53737388?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38507481 >> > > Yes, I read about that. The Japanese do buy some dairy products for > their own use, but they are /extremely/ fussy about where they get it - > and price is not an issue. I know they buy cheese and yoghurt from > specific dairies in Norway, but everything is about the standards and > quality of the raw ingredients and the production process. Pricing > levels are basically irrelevant for that market.
It is a bit weird since so much of the Japanese population are lactose intolerant that cows milk itself is a bit of a niche product. Blue cheese is quite rare in Japan. Natuo is its local equivalent - think baked beans in Evostick and smelling of dustbin and you get the idea.
>> >> Headline writers loved it: >> &nbsp;"Stilton drives wedge between UK-Japan Brexit deal". >> >>> And these two total failures by the UK government and English-led >>> insanities have guaranteed that Scotland will break free sooner or >>> later.&nbsp; That will be another huge upheaval. >> >> The only thing that might make them stay is that North Sea oil is in >> freefall. >> They cannot make money at the current oil price. >> > > That won't help - Scotland already knows that in the divorce settlement, > England will grab most of the worth of Scottish oil anyway. Obviously > Scotland would /want/ to keep all their oil money, but no one has > thought it was realistic.
I think they probably will break away, and given a chance most of Northern England would be happy to go with them. UK is run for the benefit of London and the South East. That is why chunks of the Midlands and North West are in extended lockdown right now.
> >> Depends how dead you make the economy. Risk analysis by one of the >> Bristol group suggested that if the economic recession exceeds 12% then >> the longer term indirect fatalities arising from that will be broadly >> comparable with the directly caused fatalities from Covid. > > Does that account for all the indirect health problems from Covid - such > as the people who will never work again, or die ten years earlier as a > result of lung scarring? Does it account for the economic cost of more > people getting Covid and being unable to work for extended periods? > Does it account for keeping money in the country if people couldn't go > abroad for their summer holidays, but spend them in the UK instead?
I don't think the nasty side effects were fully known at the time he did that analysis but the correlation between damage to GDP and death rate is real enough. It affects the exact percentage but not the concept.
>> Containment went to hell in a handcart when Cummings went walkabout >> taking the Covid infection with him and got away with it. > > Yes - that evil little sod should have been executed as a traitor to his > country (along with Ress Mogg, Farrage, and several others) years ago. > Bojo's cowardly treatment of his disregard for restrictions has caused > the deaths of thousands.
Unfortunately the puppet master is needed for marionette to perform :(
>> Having so many different sets of rules floating about and changing daily >> it becomes impossible to keep track. >> > > And that is one of the biggest failings of Bojo's "leadership".
I'm not sure he does leadership. It is all about what is best for Boris. -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by August 16, 20202020-08-16
>&nbsp; &nbsp;Did you ever fly on any planes built by Aeronca? They were built in > my home town. They also developed the honeycomb steel used as heat > shields for our early space program. They were located right next to the >city's airport, which made it easy to test new planes.
That trip to the North is actually my only direct experience with general aviation. I did have a pal long ago--a fine young RF guy named Ray Fast--who was a pilot and had a share in an Aeronca. Cheers Phil Hobbs
Reply by Bill Sloman August 16, 20202020-08-16
On Sunday, August 16, 2020 at 11:53:08 PM UTC+10, Tabby wrote:
> On Friday, 14 August 2020 at 20:46:07 UTC+1, Joerg wrote: > > On 2020-08-14 12:11, Tom Gardner wrote: > > > > Over here it is illegal to have a baseball bat by your > > > bed to "punish" burglars; it would be premeditation. > > > But a big heavy torch would be no problem :) > > > > > You need better freedom over there :-) > > No kidding. It's gotten insane in the uk lately. The basic right to free speech is really at risk.
People like NT do feel threatened when their favourite idiocies become threats to public safety. I can't remember whether he is an anti-vaxxer or not, but some of his sillier ideas about health care might be just as dangerous to other people during an epidemic. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by Jan Panteltje August 16, 20202020-08-16
On a sunny day (Sun, 16 Aug 2020 06:53:03 -0700 (PDT)) it happened Tabby
<tabbypurr@gmail.com> wrote in
<ce5ca71c-6f37-4e21-ac79-8bda9c5cb512n@googlegroups.com>:

>On Friday, 14 August 2020 at 20:46:07 UTC+1, Joerg wrote: >> On 2020-08-14 12:11, Tom Gardner wrote: > >> > Over here it is illegal to have a baseball bat by your >> > bed to "punish" burglars; it would be premeditation. >> > But a big heavy torch would be no problem :) >> > >> You need better freedom over there :-) > >No kidding. It's gotten insane in the uk lately. The basic right to free speech is really at risk.
Alligators, trapdoor, it is animal cruelty not to feed those on a regular basis. I know <origin not disclosed to protect the guilty> somebody who put something valuable in the window to attract burglars if he needed it, like in 'feed time'.
Reply by Tabby August 16, 20202020-08-16
On Friday, 14 August 2020 at 20:46:07 UTC+1, Joerg wrote:
> On 2020-08-14 12:11, Tom Gardner wrote:
> > Over here it is illegal to have a baseball bat by your > > bed to "punish" burglars; it would be premeditation. > > But a big heavy torch would be no problem :) > > > You need better freedom over there :-)
No kidding. It's gotten insane in the uk lately. The basic right to free speech is really at risk.
Reply by Tom Gardner August 16, 20202020-08-16
On 16/08/20 03:16, Phil Hobbs wrote:
> Bush pilots have to have brass balls anyway, but if this one wasn't also a dad, > he would have made a very good one.&nbsp; He sure was encouraging to me.
One of my daughter's instructors had been a fast jet pilot in the 50s, so he had a visceral reason to be safety conscious. Nonetheless, he let my daughter do things that other instructors wouldn't, because he knew the machine's (and his) capabilities. Once he allowed my daughter to make a mistake (going to the wrong end of the airfield FFS!) and recover, ticking off her "low energy approach" box. He remarked "well, you expect to use a few", to which I grinned broadly.
> Of course we had to dodge the > mosquitoes--up there they're so big that it takes just one to turn you into an > Egyptian mummy.&nbsp; If you get cornered, your only hope of escape is if two of them > fight over you. ;)
After camping in Iceland, I will never ever laugh at Australians with wide brimmed hats and corks dangling on strings.