On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:51:38 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:> On 2020-08-04 14:35, John Larkin wrote: > > On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de> > > wrote: > > > >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: > >> > >>> > >>> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll > >>> really find out in winter. > >> > >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. > >> > >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times > >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% > >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. > >> > >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, > >> but not to Sweden. > >> > >> Dream on. > >> > >> Gerhard > > > > Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so > > far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may > > be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter > > effect coming too. > > > > Sweden's 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK > > is 64. > > > > If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero? > > Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the > > population? > > > > In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about > > 1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That's not causal, but it's > > interesting. > > > > California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death > > count, mostly in the south. > > > > El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where > people stand their ground: > > https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/el-dorado-county-restaurant-reopening-despite-stay-at-home-order/103-8ccaf7c5-3d5d-44ab-9e4a-fc726eb6d06fWell, good for them. Stand your ground to take any action, no matter how stupid. That's what America is all about, no?> > This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia. > > > > France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any > tourists.Yeah, I bet they are sympathizing with El Dorado county right now. I guess they are hurting because of the huge loss from tourism. -- Rick C. -- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science
Started by ●August 4, 2020
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:>On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: >> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >>> >>> >>> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research >>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with >>> fake scientists. >> >> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect >> the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant >> provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social >> distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except >> where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. >> >> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member >> of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false >> sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public >> transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective. >> >> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for >> them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now >> to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word! >> >> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium >> where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density >> and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard >> lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present. >> >> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell... >> > >These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where >I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases: > >http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg > >Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of >which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a >month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake >Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go >gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. > >New cases August-1: One. >New cases August-2: Two. > >This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it >makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we >do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no. > >Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food" >(mandated, for whatever stupid reason). > >It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes, >Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-)Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now. Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a month or so wide FWHM. That's the chracteristic waveform of this thing. Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or create secondary peaks of similar shape. A few countries are showing secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about the same waveform. Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to close to zero? Where is the exponential growth? When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should insult me instead of answering.
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
Am 04.08.20 um 23:51 schrieb Joerg:>> This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.Come on, these Nordic countries are more or less one culture, they are all mostly Vikings.> France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any > tourists.You say that as if it was a bad thing. The Balearic islands of Spain were not hit very hard and had no problem to attract their usual Ballermann customers. The usual instant arseholes. Just add alcohol. And the infrastructure there is specialized in adding alc. The authorities shut it down again a few days after opening, it was the exemplary swap market. And now, since we have free 3-hour tests at the airports in .de, the results are shocking. My customer partner for this electron spin resonance project I'm currently working on is in Italy for holiday. But I don't fear for him. He's a medical doctor who can read TDR plots. :-) Meanwhile, I have canceled my Denmark-Sweden-Baltic motorcycle tour and moved it to next year (clockwise around the Baltic sea). But I'll do some trips to France. It begins 25 Km from my place. Gerhard
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote:> On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote: >> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: >>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research>>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country >>>> with fake scientists. >>> >>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly >>> protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are >>> mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from >>> others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with >>> country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka >>> 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. >>> >>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average >>> member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them >>> having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only >>> wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may >>> actually be more effective. >>> >>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often >>> for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are >>> obliged now to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a >>> four letter word! >>> >>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour >>> Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar >>> population density and demographics but a radically different >>> approaches. Belgium's hard lockdown has not served them at all >>> well - it is unclear why at present. >>> >>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to >>> tell... >>> >> >> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California >> where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered >> cases: >> >> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg >> >> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out >> of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since >> about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas >> such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation >> home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. >> >> New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two. > > You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data.No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there with egg in the face, like right now.> geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they > are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per > day.Obviously wrong.> ... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days > you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower > numbers on a weekly cycle. >Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself: http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb [...] -- Regards, Joerg http://www.analogconsultants.com/
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 6:58:22 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:> On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote: > > On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote: > >> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: > >>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: > >>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research > >>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country > >>>> with fake scientists. > >>> > >>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly > >>> protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are > >>> mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from > >>> others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with > >>> country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka > >>> 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. > >>> > >>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average > >>> member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them > >>> having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only > >>> wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may > >>> actually be more effective. > >>> > >>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often > >>> for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are > >>> obliged now to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a > >>> four letter word! > >>> > >>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour > >>> Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar > >>> population density and demographics but a radically different > >>> approaches. Belgium's hard lockdown has not served them at all > >>> well - it is unclear why at present. > >>> > >>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to > >>> tell... > >>> > >> > >> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California > >> where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered > >> cases: > >> > >> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg > >> > >> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out > >> of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since > >> about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas > >> such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation > >> home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. > >> > >> New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two. > > > > You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data. > > > No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better > for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there > with egg in the face, like right now.You don't even understand what I wrote. Do you know what cherry picking is??? It is using only the data that supports a view, ignoring data that does not. The fact that data of the last two days is low means little if other data is higher. Every day of the last week which you didn't cite is higher, as high as 8 in one day. There is no reason to think your two days of reported data are representative of anything. That's cherry picking. BTW, you might want to use a napkin on that dribble before it gets on your clothes. That yoke can stain.> > geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they > > are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per > > day. > > > Obviously wrong.As are your two days of reporting numbers that vary over weeks. I would expect you to understand noise and filtering.> > ... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days > > you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower > > numbers on a weekly cycle. > > > > Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself: > > http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfbI've already seen it, that's how I know you are cherry picking, just like Larkin. Do you report results to your customers like this? "The circuit noise was below the threshold the last time we ran it. Should we care if it failed the other nine times we tested it?" Why do you insist on presenting BS and expecting people to swallow it? -- Rick C. -+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote:>On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote: >> On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote: >>> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: >>>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >>>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research >>>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country >>>>> with fake scientists. >>>> >>>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly >>>> protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are >>>> mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from >>>> others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with >>>> country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka >>>> 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. >>>> >>>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average >>>> member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them >>>> having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only >>>> wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may >>>> actually be more effective. >>>> >>>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often >>>> for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are >>>> obliged now to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a >>>> four letter word! >>>> >>>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour >>>> Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar >>>> population density and demographics but a radically different >>>> approaches. Belgium's hard lockdown has not served them at all >>>> well - it is unclear why at present. >>>> >>>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to >>>> tell... >>>> >>> >>> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California >>> where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered >>> cases: >>> >>> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg >>> >>> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out >>> of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since >>> about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas >>> such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation >>> home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. >>> >>> New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two. >> >> You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data. > > >No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better >for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there >with egg in the face, like right now. > > >> geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they >> are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per >> day. > > >Obviously wrong. > > >> ... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days >> you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower >> numbers on a weekly cycle. >> > >Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself: > >http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb > >[...]That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level data. They usually link to a local health agency for regional data. Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 7:11:47 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 15:58:20 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> > wrote: > > >On 2020-08-04 15:11, Ricketty C wrote: > >> On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote: > >>> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: > >>>> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: > >>>>> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research > >>>>> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country > >>>>> with fake scientists. > >>>> > >>>> The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly > >>>> protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are > >>>> mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from > >>>> others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with > >>>> country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka > >>>> 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. > >>>> > >>>> Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average > >>>> member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them > >>>> having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only > >>>> wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may > >>>> actually be more effective. > >>>> > >>>> People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often > >>>> for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are > >>>> obliged now to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a > >>>> four letter word! > >>>> > >>>> Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour > >>>> Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar > >>>> population density and demographics but a radically different > >>>> approaches. Belgium's hard lockdown has not served them at all > >>>> well - it is unclear why at present. > >>>> > >>>> The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to > >>>> tell... > >>>> > >>> > >>> These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California > >>> where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered > >>> cases: > >>> > >>> http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg > >>> > >>> Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out > >>> of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since > >>> about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas > >>> such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation > >>> home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. > >>> > >>> New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two. > >> > >> You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data. > > > > > >No. I quoted the official county health office data. It would be better > >for you to fact-check first instead of accusing and then sitting there > >with egg in the face, like right now. > > > > > >> geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they > >> are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per > >> day. > > > > > >Obviously wrong. > > > > > >> ... Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days > >> you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower > >> numbers on a weekly cycle. > >> > > > >Here is the dashboard from county health, lock for yourself: > > > >http://eldoradocounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b5315baf88c34be996a16c6f0b8fdcfb > > > >[...] > > That is the exact page that Worldometer links to for county-level > data. > > They usually link to a local health agency for regional data. > > Even in your county, cases are clustered in two regions, one near > Sacramento and one near Lake Tahoe.Larkin is amazingly astute. He has figured out that the infections occur where people are! and where they travel... Who would have thought? https://edcgov.us/Government/Redistricting/publishingimages/density_11x17.jpg Make sure you keep those bars open around Tahoe. Otherwise you will never keep up with the infection rates in the rest of California. Open bars attracts the disease riddled tourists and their money. -- Rick C. +- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging +- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
On Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 8:51:47 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:> On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:30:31 -0700, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com> > wrote: > >On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: > >> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bule...@columbus.rr.com wrote:<snip>> Worldometer reports one death total so far in your county, looks like > about July 1. Cases peaked mid-June and are way, way below peak now. > > Most everywhere you look, you see a bell-shaped blip of cases about a > month or so wide FWHM. That's the characteristic waveform of this > thing.It isn't. It just looks bell-shaped to you because you haven't got a clue about the mechanisms driving the rise and fall of the number of infections.> Mitigations may just change the shape, stretch out the tail or > create secondary peaks of similar shape.Wrong.> A few countries are showing secondary case peaks bigger than the first peak, but looks like about the same waveform.To anybody who refuses to think about what's actually going on.> Maybe someone can answer my question: in places without lockdowns and > with low reported case totals, why do cases peak and fall off, to > close to zero? Where is the exponential growth?You can have exponential shrinkage as well as exponential growth. If people get frightened enough to cut the average number of new people a single infected person manages to infect below one, you get exponential shrinkage. If contact tracers tell enough potentially infected people to stay at home for 14-days from the potentially infectious encounter, they are much less likely to infect anybody else if they do develop the disease.> When I ask this question, people either ignore it or think they should > insult me instead of answering.On the contrary, it gets answered more or less non-stop, and you ignore the answers. The insults all involve pointing out that you persist in asking the question and persist in ignoring the answers. It's called incorrigible ignorance, and seems to reflect the fact that you can't accommodate any point of view about what's going on that involves your business losing money. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●August 4, 20202020-08-04
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:51:39 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com> wrote: <snip>> >El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where >people stand their ground:Didn't you say the county had 200,000 residents? 0.2ppm would mean that 0.04 people have died of covid19. One person is 5ppm. RL
Reply by ●August 5, 20202020-08-05
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 3:23:13 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:> We have 11 counties with zero deaths. And a bunch more in the single > digits.Total? Per month? All that takes, is eleven counties with no suitable hospital faciilities, it doesn't indicate mild-to-none cases of the pandemic. Alpine county, CA, has about 1100 population; Los Angeles couny, over 10 million.
