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Dutch scientists contradict scientists on settled science

Started by Unknown August 4, 2020
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html


The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake scientists.
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 11:39:51 -0700 (PDT), bulegoge@columbus.rr.com
wrote:

>https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html > > >The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with fake scientists.
I was working with a biggish laser company, IC lithography. One guy said "Yeah, those Koreans are tough, but nothing like as tough as those Dutch guys." No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll really find out in winter.
Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin:

> > No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll > really find out in winter.
Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, but not to Sweden. Dream on. Gerhard
On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote:
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html > > The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research > after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with > fake scientists.
The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective. People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word! Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present. The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell... -- Regards, Martin Brown
On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: >> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html >> >> >> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research >> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with >> fake scientists. > > The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect > the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant > provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social > distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except > where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. > > Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member > of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false > sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public > transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective. > > People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for > them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now > to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word! > > Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium > where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density > and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard > lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present. > > The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell... >
These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases: http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. New cases August-1: One. New cases August-2: Two. This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no. Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food" (mandated, for whatever stupid reason). It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes, Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-) -- Regards, Joerg http://www.analogconsultants.com/
On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de>
wrote:

>Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: > >> >> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll >> really find out in winter. > >Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. > >Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times >more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% >in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. > >Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, >but not to Sweden. > >Dream on. > >Gerhard
Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter effect coming too. Sweden's 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK is 64. If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero? Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the population? In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about 1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That's not causal, but it's interesting. California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death count, mostly in the south. This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.
On 2020-08-04 14:35, John Larkin wrote:
> On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de> > wrote: > >> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: >> >>> >>> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll >>> really find out in winter. >> >> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. >> >> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times >> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% >> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. >> >> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, >> but not to Sweden. >> >> Dream on. >> >> Gerhard > > Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so > far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may > be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter > effect coming too. > > Sweden's 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK > is 64. > > If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero? > Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the > population? > > In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about > 1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That's not causal, but it's > interesting. > > California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death > count, mostly in the south. >
El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where people stand their ground: https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/el-dorado-county-restaurant-reopening-despite-stay-at-home-order/103-8ccaf7c5-3d5d-44ab-9e4a-fc726eb6d06f
> This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia. >
France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any tourists. -- Regards, Joerg http://www.analogconsultants.com/
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:30:32 PM UTC-4, Joerg wrote:
> On 2020-08-04 13:47, Martin Brown wrote: > > On 04/08/2020 19:39, bulegoge@columbus.rr.com wrote: > >> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8583925/amp/The-land-no-face-masks-Hollands-scientists-say-theres-no-solid-evidence-coverings-work.html > >> > >> > >> The Dutch scientists do not follow science by continuing research > >> after the science is settled. It must suck to live in a country with > >> fake scientists. > > > > The science on wearing masks is rather limited. They certainly protect > > the environment from the wearer but outdoors they are mostly irrelevant > > provided that you keep your distance from others. Even that social > > distancing varies quite remarkably with country 2m in the UK (except > > where it is now 1m) and 6' (aka 1.5m) in most of the rest of the world. > > > > Actually they may well be right given just how badly the average member > > of the public wear these masks it may just result in them having a false > > sense of security. The Dutch approach of only wearing them on public > > transport and in confined spaces may actually be more effective. > > > > People fiddle with their masks and touch their eyes way too often for > > them to be effective as protection against infection. We are obliged now > > to call them "face coverings" because "mask" is a four letter word! > > > > Holland is doing a much better job of it than their neighbour Belgium > > where I used to live. Similar countries with similar population density > > and demographics but a radically different approaches. Belgium's hard > > lockdown has not served them at all well - it is unclear why at present. > > > > The Dutch must be doing something right so it is too soon to tell... > > > > These are the official numbers from El Dorado County in California where > I live, now that they (finally!) also list the recovered cases: > > http://analogconsultants.com/ng/sed/COVID_1.jpg > > Doesn't look like crisis-mode to me. About 200,000 residents, out of > which one is in the hospital. One. New cases dropping off since about a > month. The few remaining cases largely concentrate in areas such as Lake > Tahoe where people from Silicon Valley have a vacation home or go > gambling on the Nevada side of town during the day. > > New cases August-1: One. > New cases August-2: Two.
You seem to be a bit like Larkin, cherry picking your data. geodacenter.github.io may not be the easiest site to read, but they are claiming the average number of cases to be around 15 to 20 per day. Are you omitting some days of much higher numbers? The days you cite are weekend days when many jurisdictions report much lower numbers on a weekly cycle.
> This is a conservative-minded county where people wear masks where it > makes sense and not where some bureaucrat says. In the supermarket we > do, of course. While walking the dogs? Heck no.
Sure, unless you may run into other people. Masks, distance, limiting numbers of people in one gathering, washing your hands all make sense. None of them or even all of them together guarantee you won't be infected. They are imposed to reduce the spread of the disease so as to eventually eliminate it. There is no reason to not take each and every practical action to limit the spread of this disease.
> Brewpubs will happily serve you a beer if you order some "token food" > (mandated, for whatever stupid reason).
Do you really not understand the intent? If you were a child, I would try to teach you by asking you to explain it to me. Can you or are you unteachable?
> It seems we must be doing something right in El Dorado County. Yes, > Gerhard, this may be another planet after all and I like it :-)
You mean something different now than in early July when your daily new infections were around 20 or in June when the numbers were rapidly increasing? So what did change? Maybe the actions taken were working? Are you suggesting they can be ditched now that the *new* case numbers are lower? Yes, we can turn California into Florida... oh, wait, it already is, just not your little acre. -- Rick C. - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
On Tue, 04 Aug 2020 14:51:39 -0700, Joerg <news@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

>On 2020-08-04 14:35, John Larkin wrote: >> On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de> >> wrote: >> >>> Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: >>> >>>> >>>> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll >>>> really find out in winter. >>> >>> Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. >>> >>> Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times >>> more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% >>> in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. >>> >>> Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, >>> but not to Sweden. >>> >>> Dream on. >>> >>> Gerhard >> >> Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so >> far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may >> be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter >> effect coming too. >> >> Sweden's 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK >> is 64. >> >> If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero? >> Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the >> population? >> >> In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about >> 1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That's not causal, but it's >> interesting. >> >> California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death >> count, mostly in the south. >> > >El Dorado County is at 0.2 PPM. Yet this is a conservative county where >people stand their ground: > >https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/el-dorado-county-restaurant-reopening-despite-stay-at-home-order/103-8ccaf7c5-3d5d-44ab-9e4a-fc726eb6d06f > >
We have 11 counties with zero deaths. And a bunch more in the single digits.
>> This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia. >> > >France and Italy are suffering tremendously because of it. Hardly any >tourists.
On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 5:35:48 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
> On Tue, 4 Aug 2020 22:41:09 +0200, Gerhard Hoffmann <dk4xp@arcor.de> > wrote: > > >Am 04.08.20 um 22:10 schrieb John Larkin: > > > >> > >> No-lockdown Sweden isn't doing as bad as some nearby countries. We'll > >> really find out in winter. > > > >Sometimes I wonder what is the color of the sky on your home planet. > > > >Only 40% more deaths per Meg of inhabitants than even US, or > 12 times > >more than neighboring Norway. Hotels were at 15% capacity, normally 75% > >in June. No wonder, nobody wants to visit the hotspot. > > > >Sweden's Nordic neighbors have opened the borders amongst each other, > >but not to Sweden. > > > >Dream on. > > > >Gerhard > > Sweden is 569 PPM dead so far. Below Belguim, Spain, Italy, UK. So so > far, not an obviously catastrophic policy. Some european countries may > be starting ominous secondary bumps. There could well be a winter > effect coming too. > > Sweden's 7-day-averaged daily death rate is now zero. Zero is good. UK > is 64.
I don't think that is correct. The numbers at worldometers seems to be truncating rather than rounding. Wikipedia is reporting 9 deaths on last Friday alone. I'm not sure what form of arithmetic can round 9/7 down to zero.
> If Sweden is not locked down, why has the death rate fallen to zero? > Why has it fallen at all, with total cases only 0.8% of the > population?
Very good question. Do you have any theories? Could it be due to the beginning of winter there?
> In the USA, the states that had no mandatory lockdown have had about > 1/3 the PPM deaths of the US average. That's not causal, but it's > interesting.
It is neither. You cherry pick data left and right. You use total numbers to compare this thing, you use daily numbers to compare that thing. You would be a horrible scientist because you don't understand how to analyze data so as to compare apples with apples. Why do you ignore what is happening in Texas, Florida and your home state of California??? Are you afraid of the facts?
> California, locked down hard, is at about 50% of the US PPM death > count, mostly in the south.
Are you talking about the aggregate or the daily numbers? The aggregate for the country is of little use in a comparison since it mixes all manner of conditions and actions. If you want to compare actions and results, it seems to make much more sense to look at daily new infections.
> This border closing thing is mostly politics and xenophobia.
Yes, with present infection levels it doesn't make a lot of sense unless there is a wide discrepancy in infection levels. Even then the real issue is how many infections would be prevented. However, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at a map of how the disease spread and see that it could have been very effective to isolate the hot spots early in the infection. Within the US there is no longer much point in closing borders. It makes a lot of sense for other countries who largely have their infections under control to isolate the countries where the disease is running rampant... like here in the US. Thank you, DeSantis. Thank you, Kemp. -- Rick C. + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging + Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209