On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk> wrote:>On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: >> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >> >>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>> ... >>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>> >>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>> >>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>> >>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>> >>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>> >>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >> >> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >> places? With relatively few deaths? >> >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >> >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ >> > >Better test and perhaps tracing ?... > >ChrisOr maybe a real biological reason. It's interesting that most case rates look like gaussian bumps with similar widths, six weeks roughly FWHM. As if that is basic to the dynamics. First and second bumps look kinda similar.
OT: Corona virus restrictions reduce death rate in Australian state of NSW
Started by ●September 19, 2020
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 4:06:19 PM UTC-4, Fred Bloggs wrote:> > That's a good point and very probably the reason. I came across a recent report out of UK NHS reporting that 75% of influenza infections are asymptomatic, similar to COVID-19. This would explain the unnecessary spread. > Sloman is the only case I'm aware of that influenza causes brain damage.Sloman's posts cause brain damage.
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On Monday, September 21, 2020 at 6:02:57 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > > >On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: > >... > >> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent > >> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. > >> > >Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. > > > >That's less than 2% of that in the US. > > > >> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing > >> and death rates, may not be forward causal. > > > >I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." > > > >It seems to me there might be a correlation. > > But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other > places? With relatively few deaths? > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/You have an unusual sense of the word, "big". The US presently has about 1% of the population demonstrably infected or 10,000 ppm. The total infection count in Japan over the entire course of the disease is 629 ppm or 16x less. How can you possibly characterize their more recent surge as anything like "big"??? What exactly are you looking for someone to explain??? The fact that in some countries people relax their efforts at precautions with a resulting increase in infection rates until they can get it under control again? I would think you could simply watch those around you and understand the events that impact the spread of this disease. It's not rocket science. It is mostly well understood epidemiology. The rest is just human behavior which is actually pretty well understood, but not well managed. -- Rick C. - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On Tuesday, September 22, 2020 at 6:27:54 PM UTC-4, Michael Terrell wrote:> On Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 4:06:19 PM UTC-4, Fred Bloggs wrote: > > > > That's a good point and very probably the reason. I came across a recent report out of UK NHS reporting that 75% of influenza infections are asymptomatic, similar to COVID-19. This would explain the unnecessary spread. > > Sloman is the only case I'm aware of that influenza causes brain damage. > > > Sloman's posts cause brain damage.And you know this because you've read them all? -- Rick C. + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging + Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
On Wednesday, September 23, 2020 at 8:27:54 AM UTC+10, terrell....@gmail.com wrote:> On Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 4:06:19 PM UTC-4, Fred Bloggs wrote: > > > > That's a good point and very probably the reason. I came across a recent report out of UK NHS reporting that 75% of influenza infections are asymptomatic, similar to COVID-19. This would explain the unnecessary spread. > > Sloman is the only case I'm aware of that influenza causes brain damage. > > Sloman's posts cause brain damage.How would Mike know? It's not as if he's got a brain to get damaged. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
On Wednesday, September 23, 2020 at 4:56:56 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.sys...@gfsys.co.uk> > wrote: > >On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: > >> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > >> <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > >> > >>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:<snip>> Or maybe a real biological reason. > > It's interesting that most case rates look like gaussian bumps with > similar widths, six weeks roughly FWHM. As if that is basic to the > dynamics. First and second bumps look kinda similar.Only to John Larkin, who doesn't seem to think about what is actually going on, which is people getting casual about getting infected and infecting other people, which pushes the average number of people infected by every newly infected person well above one - which gives you the rising edge of the bump - until they realise that this really is an epidemic, and get cautious, reducing the average number of people infected by each new infection below one, giving you the falling edge. The bump isn't usually symmetrical (which a gaussian bump would be) but John doesn't know enough about Gaussian distributions to be aware of that. He's made this mistake before, but any post saying that he has screwed up registers with him as a "droning insult" so he tunes out before he can get the message. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk> wrote:>On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: >> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >> >>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>> ... >>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>> >>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>> >>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>> >>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>> >>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>> >>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >> >> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >> places? With relatively few deaths? >> >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >> >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ >> > >Better test and perhaps tracing ?... > >ChrisThis is interesting in several places: https://judithcurry.com/2020/09/22/herd-immunity-to-covid-19-and-pre-existing-immune-responses/ For example... In the hospital where I work, there isn�t a single person currently being treated for covid. I haven�t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over two and a half months. When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work, it is packed with people. Maybe one in a hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask in public. In Stockholm, life is largely back to normal. If you look at the front pages of the tabloids, on many days there isn�t a single mention of covid anywhere. Covid is over in Sweden. We have herd immunity. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
On 9/20/2020 2:04 PM, Tom Gardner wrote:> On 20/09/20 00:43, John Larkin wrote: >> On Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:04:24 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com> >> wrote: >> >>> On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote: >>>> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html >>>> >>>> >>>> "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, >>>> 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. >>>> >>>> Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, >>>> stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from >>>> any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were >>>> significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics >>>> shows. >>>> >>>> One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. >>>> >>>> There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since >>>> April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. >>>> >>>> By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – >>>> almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of >>>> 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." >>>> >>>> This is what proper management of public health looks like. The >>>> adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of >>>> Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their >>>> second wave (now pretty much over). >>>> >>> >>> Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline >>> what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more >>> vulnerable neighbours. >>> >>> Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their >>> masks? Sounds promising... >>> >>> Thanks for that post! >>> >>> John :-#)# >> >> Maybe the general virus reduction results from people staying away >> from jobs, restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, and public transit. >> >> Many european countries are having a big second peak, some bigger than >> the first one. But deaths per case are way down from the first wave. I >> doubt that ratio is much affected by masks. >> >> France is radical: >> >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >> >> Ditto Netherlands. Not so much Sweden. >> >> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >> >> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >> and death rates, may not be forward causal. > > You need to factor in: > - every 6 years older doubles the probability of having "problems"[2] > - most of the current infections are in younger people; the difference > obvious and remarkable and important[1] > - deaths lag infections > > [1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhORnmyWAAA_qb2?format=jpg > [2] also from Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, but can't be bothered > to dig out the reference. I'm a longtime fan of his, particularly > his attitude to risk and the misperception of it >The current rate of positive tests and democrat vs republican leadership is pretty clear: <https://cepr.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Book2_29991_image001-1024x545.png> 8 of the ten on the right are the former
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
On 22/09/2020 19:56, John Larkin wrote:> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk> > wrote: > >> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >>> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >>> >>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>>> ... >>>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>>> >>>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>>> >>>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>>> >>>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>>> >>>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>>> >>>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >>> >>> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >>> places? With relatively few deaths? >>> >>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >>> >>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ >>> >> >> Better test and perhaps tracing ?...More likely because hospital admissions lag getting infected by 10-14 days and deaths by a further 10-30 days. You don't see all the deaths resulting from today's infection rate until about a month from now. It makes the system very difficult to control since Western governments tend to take panic measures in quick succession as it goes pear shaped having made bad strategic decisions in the first place. I have no confidence in the UK government any more over their Covid measures. Far Eastern governments had well rehearsed pandemic control plans after being bitten quite hard by SARS in the not so recent past. The latest UK not a lockdown is neither fish not fowl. Not enough to make a real difference and bring the infections down to a level where the useless "world beating" track and trace system can cope but enough to really knacker the economy. Worst of all possible choices. Hospital admissions are starting to rise abruptly as of today.> > Or maybe a real biological reason. > > It's interesting that most case rates look like gaussian bumps with > similar widths, six weeks roughly FWHM. As if that is basic to the > dynamics. First and second bumps look kinda similar.Only to your eyes. US looks like it is headed for another really big bump once everyone goes indoors for the winter (and so is the UK). The rise can be as fast as doubling every 3 days. The decline even with fairly strict measures has a time constant of 2 weeks. Our lockdowns just are not hard enough to make it decay any faster (and bad management by controlling on *average* R rather than max R screwed things up). -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
On Wed, 23 Sep 2020 19:25:30 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:>On 22/09/2020 19:56, John Larkin wrote: >> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk> >> wrote: >> >>> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: >>>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >>>> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >>>> >>>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>>>> ... >>>>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>>>> >>>>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>>>> >>>>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>>>> >>>>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>>>> >>>>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>>>> >>>>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >>>> >>>> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >>>> places? With relatively few deaths? >>>> >>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >>>> >>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ >>>> >>> >>> Better test and perhaps tracing ?... > >More likely because hospital admissions lag getting infected by 10-14 >days and deaths by a further 10-30 days. You don't see all the deaths >resulting from today's infection rate until about a month from now.Explain Sweden. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
