On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:>On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >... >> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >> >Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. > >That's less than 2% of that in the US. > >> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >> and death rates, may not be forward causal. > >I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." > >It seems to me there might be a correlation.But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other places? With relatively few deaths? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/
OT: Corona virus restrictions reduce death rate in Australian state of NSW
Started by ●September 19, 2020
Reply by ●September 21, 20202020-09-21
Reply by ●September 21, 20202020-09-21
On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote:> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > >> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >> ... >>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>> >> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >> >> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >> >>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >> >> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >> >> It seems to me there might be a correlation. > > But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other > places? With relatively few deaths? > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ >Better test and perhaps tracing ?... Chris
Reply by ●September 21, 20202020-09-21
On 22/9/20 8:02 am, John Larkin wrote:> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > >> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >> ... >>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>> >> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >> >> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >> >>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >> >> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >> >> It seems to me there might be a correlation. > > But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other > places? With relatively few deaths?Because Europe stops in August while everyone goes on holiday... and the massive number of new cases is going to spike the death rate... about now actually. CH
Reply by ●September 21, 20202020-09-21
tirsdag den 22. september 2020 kl. 00.02.57 UTC+2 skrev John Larkin:> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > > >On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: > >... > >> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent > >> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. > >> > >Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. > > > >That's less than 2% of that in the US. > > > >> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing > >> and death rates, may not be forward causal. > > > >I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." > > > >It seems to me there might be a correlation. > > But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other > places? With relatively few deaths? >students back from vacation?
Reply by ●September 21, 20202020-09-21
On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 10:53:21 +1000, Clifford Heath <no.spam@please.net> wrote:>On 22/9/20 8:02 am, John Larkin wrote: >> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >> >>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>> ... >>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>> >>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>> >>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>> >>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>> >>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>> >>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >> >> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >> places? With relatively few deaths? > >Because Europe stops in August while everyone goes on holiday... and the >massive number of new cases is going to spike the death rate... about >now actually. > >CHThat's certainly not the pattern in France, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, UK, Germany. The second bump is big but far less deadly than the first one. Australia is having a pretty deadly second bump. Sweden is interesting. Deaths peaked way *before* cases in the main bump, and then dropped off almost linearly to zero, as cases peaked and then plateau'd below peak. They have no second case bump, just a long tail. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On Tuesday, September 22, 2020 at 12:45:00 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 10:53:21 +1000, Clifford Heath > <no....@please.net> wrote: > > >On 22/9/20 8:02 am, John Larkin wrote: > >> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > >> <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > >> > >>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:<snip>> That's certainly not the pattern in France, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, > UK, Germany. The second bump is big but far less deadly than the first > one. > > Australia is having a pretty deadly second bump.It's not so much Australia as the state of Victoria, and it's had some 700 deaths in a population of seven million - that's 100 deaths per million. The US level is now 617 deaths per million people. That's a pretty deadly epidemic. Victoria isn't quite as bad as Germany, though a whole lot worse than the rest of Australia. Victoria hasn't done well at keeping Covid-19 out of aged care homes , which is where most of those deaths have occurred.> Sweden is interesting. Deaths peaked way *before* cases in the main > bump, and then dropped off almost linearly to zero, as cases peaked > and then plateau'd below peak. They have no second case bump, just a > long tail.The Swedish population got the message rather faster than the Swedish government did. They've got a better education system than the US has, and it shows. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On 22/9/20 12:44 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 10:53:21 +1000, Clifford Heath > <no.spam@please.net> wrote: > >> On 22/9/20 8:02 am, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >>> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >>> >>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>>> ... >>>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>>> >>>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>>> >>>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>>> >>>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>>> >>>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>>> >>>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >>> >>> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >>> places? With relatively few deaths? >> >> Because Europe stops in August while everyone goes on holiday... and the >> massive number of new cases is going to spike the death rate... about >> now actually. >> >> CH > > That's certainly not the pattern in France, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, > UK, Germany.The mass vacation is certainly the reason for the bump in cases.> The second bump is big but far less deadly than the first > one.The death bump lags the case bump by about a month. Perhaps it will be smaller than expected, indicating that case management has improved. That's good, but so what? Are you trying to draw some conclusion from this? Or unwilling to state what you think, because you know it's provably false and you'll be shot down in flames? As usual...> Australia is having a pretty deadly second bump.Old news, you're well behind the facts. And it's utterly unrelated to the European spike. The numbers are in no way comparable to anything that's happened anywhere in Europe or the USA anyhow, and the deaths are almost all in aged care. What a surprise, that high density groups of the most vulnerable people looked after by untrained minimum-wage earners are at severe risk. The USA had a pandemic of stupidity and sociopathy long before it had a disease outbreak.
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On 22/9/20 12:44 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> That's certainly not the pattern in France, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, > UK, Germany. The second bump is big but far less deadly than the first > one.Oh, one more obvious thing. The first outbreaks were mostly among old people. Remaining old people chose not to go on vacation, or went somewhere very safe and were careful. The second outbreak has an entirely different younger demographic, much less likely to die of COVID19.
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 14:16:26 +1000, Clifford Heath <no.spam@please.net> wrote:>On 22/9/20 12:44 pm, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> That's certainly not the pattern in France, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, >> UK, Germany. The second bump is big but far less deadly than the first >> one. >Oh, one more obvious thing. The first outbreaks were mostly among old >people. > >Remaining old people chose not to go on vacation, or went somewhere very >safe and were careful. The second outbreak has an entirely different >younger demographic, much less likely to die of COVID19.Those suggestions are an improvement over lame insults. Now expand on the epidemiology of those ideas. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●September 22, 20202020-09-22
On Tuesday, September 22, 2020 at 2:34:50 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 14:16:26 +1000, Clifford Heath > <no....@please.net> wrote: > > >On 22/9/20 12:44 pm, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: > >> That's certainly not the pattern in France, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, > >> UK, Germany. The second bump is big but far less deadly than the first > >> one. > >Oh, one more obvious thing. The first outbreaks were mostly among old > >people. > > > >Remaining old people chose not to go on vacation, or went somewhere very > >safe and were careful. The second outbreak has an entirely different > >younger demographic, much less likely to die of COVID19. > Those suggestions are an improvement over lame insults. > > Now expand on the epidemiology of those ideas.For you to cherry pick the ideas you like, and ignore the ideas that don't fit with your preconceptions? You really aren't in a position to influence the discussion, because your "contributions" are essentially cut and pasted from other peoples propaganda. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
