Zerohedge would say that. In fact - as the article makes clear he was talking about deaths in Africa that economic help from Germany might have averted.
The rest are dubious assertions from clinicians who aren't seeing their patients as often due to lock-down restrictions and want to frighten society into letting them try to cure their own patients while giving those patients (and everybody else) a better chance of getting Covid-19.
When lock downs are done properly - and properly backed up by effective contact tracing and isolation of the potentially infectious - they don't have to last more than a month or so and don't have the chance to kill off many of the people being isolated.
The recent lock-down in the state of NSW actually reduced the death rate compared with the same period last year, mainly by preventing seasonal flu from killing off any of the elderly. Covid-19 did kill off some some fifty elderly people but seasonal flu would have killed more - it had killed 12 before the lock down started.
The state of Victoria won't have done as well. They've lost some 700 to Covid-19 and seasonal flu doesn't do that.
Victoria has a population of about seven million, and Australia has a life expectancy of 82.5 years, so the annual death toll in Victoria would be about 85,000.
The US has life expectancy of 78.9 years and a population of about 330 million, so they can expect to lose some 4.16 million every year. Even 200,000 Covid-19 deaths isn't going to make much difference to that - it roughly equivalent to 400,000 deaths per year, since is has been going up more or less linearly since March.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 26, 20202020-09-26
On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 19:04:51 +0100, Tom Gardner
<spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>On 20/09/20 00:43, John Larkin wrote:
>> On Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:04:24 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote:
>>>> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html
>>>>
>>>> "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200.
>>>>
>>>> Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers � heart attacks, stroke, and cancer � were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease � particularly pneumonia � were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows.
>>>>
>>>> One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season.
>>>>
>>>> There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year.
>>>>
>>>> By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths � almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)."
>>>>
>>>> This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over).
>>>>
>>>
>>> Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline
>>> what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more
>>> vulnerable neighbours.
>>>
>>> Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their
>>> masks? Sounds promising...
>>>
>>> Thanks for that post!
>>>
>>> John :-#)#
>>
>> Maybe the general virus reduction results from people staying away
>> from jobs, restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, and public transit.
>>
>> Many european countries are having a big second peak, some bigger than
>> the first one. But deaths per case are way down from the first wave. I
>> doubt that ratio is much affected by masks.
>>
>> France is radical:
>>
>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
>>
>> Ditto Netherlands. Not so much Sweden.
>>
>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent
>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands.
>>
>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing
>> and death rates, may not be forward causal.
>
>You need to factor in:
> - every 6 years older doubles the probability of having "problems"[2]
> - most of the current infections are in younger people; the difference
> obvious and remarkable and important[1]
> - deaths lag infections
>
>[1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhORnmyWAAA_qb2?format=jpg
>[2] also from Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, but can't be bothered
>to dig out the reference. I'm a longtime fan of his, particularly
>his attitude to risk and the misperception of it
On Thu, 24 Sep 2020 22:07:14 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>On 24/09/2020 21:20, whit3rd wrote:
>> On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 5:19:41 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>
>>> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not.
>>
>> There's other bump-ologies to consider, too; phrenology might explain why JL has such
>> a fixation on Sweden.
>>
>> Sweden isn't the issue, it's the MYTH of Sweden that JL keeps addressing. Thing is,
>> there's a pandemic, and mythic issues can be laid aside while vital ones are being discussed.
>> Unless, of course, the discussion hosts too many folk with the odd bumps on their heads.
>
>But are they Gaussian bumps? ;-)
There's no way to tell. I have way too much hair.
--
John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
Science teaches us to doubt.
Claude Bernard
Reply by Martin Brown●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 24/09/2020 21:20, whit3rd wrote:
> On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 5:19:41 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>
>> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not.
>
> There's other bump-ologies to consider, too; phrenology might explain why JL has such
> a fixation on Sweden.
>
> Sweden isn't the issue, it's the MYTH of Sweden that JL keeps addressing. Thing is,
> there's a pandemic, and mythic issues can be laid aside while vital ones are being discussed.
> Unless, of course, the discussion hosts too many folk with the odd bumps on their heads.
But are they Gaussian bumps? ;-)
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
Reply by whit3rd●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 5:19:41 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not.
There's other bump-ologies to consider, too; phrenology might explain why JL has such
a fixation on Sweden.
Sweden isn't the issue, it's the MYTH of Sweden that JL keeps addressing. Thing is,
there's a pandemic, and mythic issues can be laid aside while vital ones are being discussed.
Unless, of course, the discussion hosts too many folk with the odd bumps on their heads.
Reply by Bill Sloman●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 10:19:41 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Thu, 24 Sep 2020 11:52:20 +0100, Martin Brown
> <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>
> >On 23/09/2020 17:47, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> >> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.sys...@gfsys.co.uk>
> >> wrote:
> >>
> >>> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote:
> >>>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com"
> >>>> <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
> >Sweden and The Netherlands may well have the best medium to long term
> >strategy if the promised Covid vaccines prove to be illusory or delayed.
Sweden is at 581 Covid-19 deaths per million people. That puts them firmly in the league of countries that didn't do anything partuclalry effective.
The Netherlands at 386 ppm. isn't as bad - and whole lot better than Belgium at 858 ppm, but a whole lot worse than Germany at 113 ppm.
> >We all now know that all over by Easter/Christmas was a bare faced lie!
It was pure wishful thinking - not even a lie, just idiocy.
> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not.
The Dutch first bump peaked at about 1100 new cases per day. The second one has hit 2000 cases per day and is still rising.
Sweden peaked at about 1045 per day back in June, had a second peak at about 300 per day about a month ago and is now back up to 326 and still rising. Neither is in any kind of good state.
>
> Lockdowns were successful in preserving a victim population for the
> virus to exploit.
Inadequate lock-downs and woeful contact tracing.
Do it better, and there's not a lot of virus left hanging around to exploit the uninfected survivors.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On Thu, 24 Sep 2020 11:52:20 +0100, Martin Brown
<'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>On 23/09/2020 17:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote:
>>>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com"
>>>> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>> ...
>>>>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent
>>>>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands.
>>>>>>
>>>>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population.
>>>>>
>>>>> That's less than 2% of that in the US.
>>>>>
>>>>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing
>>>>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal.
>>>>>
>>>>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people."
>>>>>
>>>>> It seems to me there might be a correlation.
>>>>
>>>> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other
>>>> places? With relatively few deaths?
>>>>
>>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
>>>>
>>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/
>>>>
>>>
>>> Better test and perhaps tracing ?...
>>>
>>> Chris
>>
>> This is interesting in several places:
>>
>> https://judithcurry.com/2020/09/22/herd-immunity-to-covid-19-and-pre-existing-immune-responses/
>>
>
>Wishful righttard "thinking".
>She is well known for promulgating anti-science.
>
>> For example...
>>
>> In the hospital where I work, there isn�t a single person currently
>> being treated for covid.
>>
>> I haven�t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over
>> two and a half months.
>>
>> When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work, it is packed with
>> people. Maybe one in a hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask
>> in public. In Stockholm, life is largely back to normal. If you look
>> at the front pages of the tabloids, on many days there isn�t a single
>> mention of covid anywhere.
>>
>> Covid is over in Sweden. We have herd immunity.
>
>The winter will be upon us soon enough and infections are already
>rapidly rising in the UK - much earlier than I would have expected but
>then our government has made some stupid decisions.
UK is having a big second bump in cases, like France and Belgium and
Netherlands and many other places. Just in time for winter.
>
>Sweden and The Netherlands may well have the best medium to long term
>strategy if the promised Covid vaccines prove to be illusory or delayed.
>We all now know that all over by Easter/Christmas was a bare faced lie!
Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not.
Lockdowns were successful in preserving a victim population for the
virus to exploit.
--
John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc
Science teaches us to doubt.
Claude Bernard
Reply by Martin Brown●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 24/09/2020 03:03, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Wed, 23 Sep 2020 19:25:30 +0100, Martin Brown
> <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:
>
>> More likely because hospital admissions lag getting infected by 10-14
>> days and deaths by a further 10-30 days. You don't see all the deaths
>> resulting from today's infection rate until about a month from now.
>
> Explain Sweden.
Sweden is nothing to write home about. Like the UK they managed to
decimate their care home population and it is such a sparsely populated
country that many people are in permanent self isolation by default.
They have performed very much worse so far than their comparable Nordic
neighbours. Their strategy might still be proved correct if as I suspect
an effective vaccine against Covid-19 turns out to be illusory.
The Netherlands vs Belgium is a much better comparison for pragmatic
smart lockdowns that work vs blanket heavy handed policies that don't.
Both countries have broadly comparable population densities to the UK.
They are now running neck and neck but Belgium destroyed its economy a
lot more comprehensively and annoyed its NHS to the extent that they
turned their backs on their Prime Minister as a mark of disrespect.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/belgian-healthcare-workers-turn-their-backs-on-prime-minister-in-powerful-silent-protest/ar-BB14eLfa
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
Reply by Martin Brown●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 24/09/2020 03:38, whit3rd wrote:
> On Tuesday, September 22, 2020 at 11:56:56 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
>
>> It's interesting that most case rates look like gaussian bumps with
>> similar widths, six weeks roughly FWHM. As if that is basic to the
>> dynamics. First and second bumps look kinda similar.
>
> So, when the folk find out that there's a LOCAL OUTBREAK, they respond
> semi-appropriately and the locale gets healthier, on a timescale similar to
> the time that the disease takes to become symptomatic and get noticed.
> This is the expected dynamics of a population responding
> to the disease.
Even in a country like Brazil (and to some extent the USA) where the
President sets out to let the virus run unchecked the public react to
the mounting deaths in their neighbourhood and avoid physical contact.
This is pretty much classic response to untreatable diseases in the past
like plague. The people do good things irrespective of bad government.
Brazil now leads the world with a linear rise in infections of 1M new
infections every 3 weeks.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil
But they are not the steepest any more. That dubious honour goes to
India which is rising at 1M every 2 weeks and will soon overtake Brazil.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india
I have my doubts that the UK government will sort things out. The new
half hearted lockdown combines the worst of all worlds. Hard enough to
seriously damage the economy but not hard enough to get the infection
down to a level where track and trace will work effectively.
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
Reply by Martin Brown●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 23/09/2020 17:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk>
> wrote:
>
>> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote:
>>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com"
>>> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
>>>> ...
>>>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent
>>>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands.
>>>>>
>>>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population.
>>>>
>>>> That's less than 2% of that in the US.
>>>>
>>>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing
>>>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal.
>>>>
>>>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people."
>>>>
>>>> It seems to me there might be a correlation.
>>>
>>> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other
>>> places? With relatively few deaths?
>>>
>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
>>>
>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/
>>>
>>
>> Better test and perhaps tracing ?...
>>
>> Chris
>
> This is interesting in several places:
>
> https://judithcurry.com/2020/09/22/herd-immunity-to-covid-19-and-pre-existing-immune-responses/
>
Wishful righttard "thinking".
She is well known for promulgating anti-science.
> For example...
>
> In the hospital where I work, there isn’t a single person currently
> being treated for covid.
>
> I haven’t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over
> two and a half months.
>
> When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work, it is packed with
> people. Maybe one in a hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask
> in public. In Stockholm, life is largely back to normal. If you look
> at the front pages of the tabloids, on many days there isn’t a single
> mention of covid anywhere.
>
> Covid is over in Sweden. We have herd immunity.
The winter will be upon us soon enough and infections are already
rapidly rising in the UK - much earlier than I would have expected but
then our government has made some stupid decisions.
Sweden and The Netherlands may well have the best medium to long term
strategy if the promised Covid vaccines prove to be illusory or delayed.
We all now know that all over by Easter/Christmas was a bare faced lie!
--
Regards,
Martin Brown