https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
OT: Corona virus restrictions reduce death rate in Australian state of NSW
Started by ●September 19, 2020
Reply by ●September 19, 20202020-09-19
On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote:> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html > > "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. > > Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. > > One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. > > There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. > > By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." > > This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). >Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more vulnerable neighbours. Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their masks? Sounds promising... Thanks for that post! John :-#)# -- (Please post followups or tech inquiries to the USENET newsgroup) John's Jukes Ltd. MOVED to #7 - 3979 Marine Way, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5J 5E3 (604)872-5757 (Pinballs, Jukes, Video Games) www.flippers.com "Old pinballers never die, they just flip out."
Reply by ●September 19, 20202020-09-19
On Saturday, September 19, 2020 at 1:04:37 PM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:> On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote: > > https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html > > > > "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. > > > > Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. > > > > One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. > > > > There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. > > > > By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." > > > > This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). > > > Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline > what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more > vulnerable neighbours. > > Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their > masks? Sounds promising... > > Thanks for that post! > > John :-#)# > > -- > (Please post followups or tech inquiries to the USENET newsgroup) > John's Jukes Ltd. > MOVED to #7 - 3979 Marine Way, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5J 5E3 > (604)872-5757 (Pinballs, Jukes, Video Games) > www.flippers.com > "Old pinballers never die, they just flip out."That's a good point and very probably the reason. I came across a recent report out of UK NHS reporting that 75% of influenza infections are asymptomatic, similar to COVID-19. This would explain the unnecessary spread. Sloman is the only case I'm aware of that influenza causes brain damage.
Reply by ●September 19, 20202020-09-19
On Friday, September 18, 2020 at 11:07:20 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html > > "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. > > Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. > > One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. > > There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. > > By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." > > This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). > > -- > Bill Sloman, SydneySo Victoria is lots of rural beer drinking people?
Reply by ●September 19, 20202020-09-19
On Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:04:24 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com> wrote:>On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote: >> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html >> >> "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. >> >> Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers � heart attacks, stroke, and cancer � were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease � particularly pneumonia � were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. >> >> One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. >> >> There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. >> >> By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths � almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." >> >> This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). >> > >Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline >what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more >vulnerable neighbours. > >Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their >masks? Sounds promising... > >Thanks for that post! > >John :-#)#Maybe the general virus reduction results from people staying away from jobs, restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, and public transit. Many european countries are having a big second peak, some bigger than the first one. But deaths per case are way down from the first wave. I doubt that ratio is much affected by masks. France is radical: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ Ditto Netherlands. Not so much Sweden. Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing and death rates, may not be forward causal.
Reply by ●September 19, 20202020-09-19
On Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 6:07:15 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:> On Friday, September 18, 2020 at 11:07:20 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote: > > https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html > > > > "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. > > > > Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. > > > > One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. > > > > There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. > > > > By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." > > > > This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). > > So Victoria is lots of rural beer drinking people?No. The problem there was that they made a hash of quarantining returning travelers, and managed to let the quarantined travelers infect enough of the staff in the hotels where the travellers were being quarantined to let the infection get out into the community. Part of the problem was that the bureaucracy had gone for cheaper staff than was wise - the kind of people who hold down two jobs, and go home to infect a large extended family - so there were quite a few infections. Initially most of the infections were in the state capital - Melbourne. It's got a population of 4.870 million, which is almost three quarters of of the population of the whole state - 6.651 million - so this isn't surprising. There was some subsequent spread into rural areas, but that came under control rather faster than the city. New infections per day peaked at about 700 and is now down to about 50 and falling rapidly. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 19, 20202020-09-19
On Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 9:43:37 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:> On Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:04:24 -0700, John Robertson <sp...@flippers.com> > wrote: > >On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote: > >> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html > >> > >> "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. > >> > >> Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. > >> > >> One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. > >> > >> There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. > >> > >> By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." > >> > >> This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). > >> > > > >Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline > >what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more > >vulnerable neighbours. > > > >Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their > >masks? Sounds promising... > > > >Thanks for that post! > > Maybe the general virus reduction results from people staying away > from jobs, restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, and public transit. > > Many European countries are having a big second peak, some bigger than > the first one. But deaths per case are way down from the first wave. I > doubt that ratio is much affected by masks.The second wave of infections seems to be dominated by younger people who seem to feel a bigger need to socialise and infect one another. They are less likely to die of the disease than older people. If older people are more likely to wear masks, they are less likely to get infected, which would help the ratio <snip>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent > mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. > > The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing > and death rates, may not be forward causal.If you wear a mask you are less likely to get infected, and less likely to infect other people if you are infected. The cause is that you spray out less virus carrying droplets of saliva, if you have the infection, and the mask traps some of the droplets that might have infected you if you haven't. Masks don't catch everything, so it's not a total protection, which makes the problem too complicated for John Larkin to understand. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 20, 20202020-09-20
On 20/9/20 6:07 am, Fred Bloggs wrote:> On Friday, September 18, 2020 at 11:07:20 PM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote: >> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html >> >> "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. >> >> Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. >> >> One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. >> >> There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. >> >> By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." >> >> This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). >> >> -- >> Bill Sloman, Sydney > > So Victoria is lots of rural beer drinking people?No, as I've told you *repeatedly* before, 75% (4.9M) of Victoria's population (6.6M) lives in Melbourne, with most of the rest in other large regional cities (Geelong 260k, Bendigo&Ballarat 100k each, etc). No other non-totalitarian state has turned around a substantial outbreak as quickly as Victoria has. Simple fact. The lockdown has worked. CH
Reply by ●September 20, 20202020-09-20
On 20/09/20 00:43, John Larkin wrote:> On Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:04:24 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com> > wrote: > >> On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote: >>> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html >>> >>> "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. >>> >>> Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers – heart attacks, stroke, and cancer – were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease – particularly pneumonia – were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. >>> >>> One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. >>> >>> There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. >>> >>> By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths – almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." >>> >>> This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). >>> >> >> Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline >> what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more >> vulnerable neighbours. >> >> Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their >> masks? Sounds promising... >> >> Thanks for that post! >> >> John :-#)# > > Maybe the general virus reduction results from people staying away > from jobs, restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, and public transit. > > Many european countries are having a big second peak, some bigger than > the first one. But deaths per case are way down from the first wave. I > doubt that ratio is much affected by masks. > > France is radical: > > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ > > Ditto Netherlands. Not so much Sweden. > > Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent > mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. > > The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing > and death rates, may not be forward causal.You need to factor in: - every 6 years older doubles the probability of having "problems"[2] - most of the current infections are in younger people; the difference obvious and remarkable and important[1] - deaths lag infections [1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhORnmyWAAA_qb2?format=jpg [2] also from Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, but can't be bothered to dig out the reference. I'm a longtime fan of his, particularly his attitude to risk and the misperception of it
Reply by ●September 20, 20202020-09-20
On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: ...> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent > mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. That's less than 2% of that in the US.> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing > and death rates, may not be forward causal.I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." It seems to me there might be a correlation.
