On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 19:04:51 +0100, Tom Gardner <spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:>On 20/09/20 00:43, John Larkin wrote: >> On Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:04:24 -0700, John Robertson <spam@flippers.com> >> wrote: >> >>> On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote: >>>> https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/covid-19-restrictions-cause-decline-in-deaths-in-nsw-20200917-p55wne.html >>>> >>>> "n June 2019 there were close to 5000 deaths registered. By June, 2020 registered deaths were closer to 4200. >>>> >>>> Mortality rates for some of the biggest killers � heart attacks, stroke, and cancer � were similar to previous years, but deaths from any kind of respiratory disease � particularly pneumonia � were significantly lower, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows. >>>> >>>> One contributing factor is the all but non-existent flu season. >>>> >>>> There has not been a single influenza death reported in NSW since April, and 12 flu deaths have been reported all year. >>>> >>>> By the end of August last year, the state had 214 flu deaths � almost 3.5-times this year's combined flu and COVID-19 death toll of 64 (including 52 coronavirus-related deaths)." >>>> >>>> This is what proper management of public health looks like. The adjacent state of Victoria won't look as good, Some 700 of Australia's 844 Covid-19 deaths have happened there, mostly in their second wave (now pretty much over). >>>> >>> >>> Yes, I would think that all respiratory diseases are showing a decline >>> what with people wearing masks and helping to protect their more >>> vulnerable neighbours. >>> >>> Is this to become the new norm? Flu season and folks bring out their >>> masks? Sounds promising... >>> >>> Thanks for that post! >>> >>> John :-#)# >> >> Maybe the general virus reduction results from people staying away >> from jobs, restaurants, bars, hotels, airplanes, and public transit. >> >> Many european countries are having a big second peak, some bigger than >> the first one. But deaths per case are way down from the first wave. I >> doubt that ratio is much affected by masks. >> >> France is radical: >> >> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >> >> Ditto Netherlands. Not so much Sweden. >> >> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >> >> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >> and death rates, may not be forward causal. > >You need to factor in: > - every 6 years older doubles the probability of having "problems"[2] > - most of the current infections are in younger people; the difference > obvious and remarkable and important[1] > - deaths lag infections > >[1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhORnmyWAAA_qb2?format=jpg >[2] also from Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, but can't be bothered >to dig out the reference. I'm a longtime fan of his, particularly >his attitude to risk and the misperception of ithttps://www.zerohedge.com/medical/german-minister-admits-lockdown-will-kill-more-covid-19-does -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
OT: Corona virus restrictions reduce death rate in Australian state of NSW
Started by ●September 19, 2020
Reply by ●September 26, 20202020-09-26
Reply by ●September 27, 20202020-09-27
On Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 6:56:21 AM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 19:04:51 +0100, Tom Gardner > <spam...@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote: > > >On 20/09/20 00:43, John Larkin wrote: > >> On Sat, 19 Sep 2020 10:04:24 -0700, John Robertson <sp...@flippers.com> > >> wrote: > >> > >>> On 2020/09/18 8:07 p.m., Bill Sloman wrote:<snip>> https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/german-minister-admits-lockdown-will-kill-more-covid-19-doesZerohedge would say that. In fact - as the article makes clear he was talking about deaths in Africa that economic help from Germany might have averted. The rest are dubious assertions from clinicians who aren't seeing their patients as often due to lock-down restrictions and want to frighten society into letting them try to cure their own patients while giving those patients (and everybody else) a better chance of getting Covid-19. When lock downs are done properly - and properly backed up by effective contact tracing and isolation of the potentially infectious - they don't have to last more than a month or so and don't have the chance to kill off many of the people being isolated. The recent lock-down in the state of NSW actually reduced the death rate compared with the same period last year, mainly by preventing seasonal flu from killing off any of the elderly. Covid-19 did kill off some some fifty elderly people but seasonal flu would have killed more - it had killed 12 before the lock down started. The state of Victoria won't have done as well. They've lost some 700 to Covid-19 and seasonal flu doesn't do that. Victoria has a population of about seven million, and Australia has a life expectancy of 82.5 years, so the annual death toll in Victoria would be about 85,000. The US has life expectancy of 78.9 years and a population of about 330 million, so they can expect to lose some 4.16 million every year. Even 200,000 Covid-19 deaths isn't going to make much difference to that - it roughly equivalent to 400,000 deaths per year, since is has been going up more or less linearly since March. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
