On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 12:03:20 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Wed, 23 Sep 2020 19:25:30 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > > >On 22/09/2020 19:56, John Larkin wrote: > >> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.sys...@gfsys.co.uk> > >> wrote: > >> > >>> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: > >>>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > >>>> <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > >>>> > >>>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:<snip>> >More likely because hospital admissions lag getting infected by 10-14 > >days and deaths by a further 10-30 days. You don't see all the deaths > >resulting from today's infection rate until about a month from now. > > Explain Sweden.Which aspect of Sweden's lamentable performance do you want explained? And why should we bother? you won't pay any attention to the parts of the explanation which don't support your bizarre delusions. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
OT: Corona virus restrictions reduce death rate in Australian state of NSW
Started by ●September 19, 2020
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
Reply by ●September 23, 20202020-09-23
On Tuesday, September 22, 2020 at 11:56:56 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:> It's interesting that most case rates look like gaussian bumps with > similar widths, six weeks roughly FWHM. As if that is basic to the > dynamics. First and second bumps look kinda similar.So, when the folk find out that there's a LOCAL OUTBREAK, they respond semi-appropriately and the locale gets healthier, on a timescale similar to the time that the disease takes to become symptomatic and get noticed. This is the expected dynamics of a population responding to the disease.
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 23/09/2020 17:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk> > wrote: > >> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >>> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >>> >>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>>> ... >>>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>>> >>>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>>> >>>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>>> >>>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>>> >>>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>>> >>>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >>> >>> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >>> places? With relatively few deaths? >>> >>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >>> >>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ >>> >> >> Better test and perhaps tracing ?... >> >> Chris > > This is interesting in several places: > > https://judithcurry.com/2020/09/22/herd-immunity-to-covid-19-and-pre-existing-immune-responses/ >Wishful righttard "thinking". She is well known for promulgating anti-science.> For example... > > In the hospital where I work, there isn’t a single person currently > being treated for covid. > > I haven’t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over > two and a half months. > > When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work, it is packed with > people. Maybe one in a hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask > in public. In Stockholm, life is largely back to normal. If you look > at the front pages of the tabloids, on many days there isn’t a single > mention of covid anywhere. > > Covid is over in Sweden. We have herd immunity.The winter will be upon us soon enough and infections are already rapidly rising in the UK - much earlier than I would have expected but then our government has made some stupid decisions. Sweden and The Netherlands may well have the best medium to long term strategy if the promised Covid vaccines prove to be illusory or delayed. We all now know that all over by Easter/Christmas was a bare faced lie! -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 24/09/2020 03:38, whit3rd wrote:> On Tuesday, September 22, 2020 at 11:56:56 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: > >> It's interesting that most case rates look like gaussian bumps with >> similar widths, six weeks roughly FWHM. As if that is basic to the >> dynamics. First and second bumps look kinda similar. > > So, when the folk find out that there's a LOCAL OUTBREAK, they respond > semi-appropriately and the locale gets healthier, on a timescale similar to > the time that the disease takes to become symptomatic and get noticed. > This is the expected dynamics of a population responding > to the disease.Even in a country like Brazil (and to some extent the USA) where the President sets out to let the virus run unchecked the public react to the mounting deaths in their neighbourhood and avoid physical contact. This is pretty much classic response to untreatable diseases in the past like plague. The people do good things irrespective of bad government. Brazil now leads the world with a linear rise in infections of 1M new infections every 3 weeks. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil But they are not the steepest any more. That dubious honour goes to India which is rising at 1M every 2 weeks and will soon overtake Brazil. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india I have my doubts that the UK government will sort things out. The new half hearted lockdown combines the worst of all worlds. Hard enough to seriously damage the economy but not hard enough to get the infection down to a level where track and trace will work effectively. -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 24/09/2020 03:03, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Wed, 23 Sep 2020 19:25:30 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > >> More likely because hospital admissions lag getting infected by 10-14 >> days and deaths by a further 10-30 days. You don't see all the deaths >> resulting from today's infection rate until about a month from now. > > Explain Sweden.Sweden is nothing to write home about. Like the UK they managed to decimate their care home population and it is such a sparsely populated country that many people are in permanent self isolation by default. They have performed very much worse so far than their comparable Nordic neighbours. Their strategy might still be proved correct if as I suspect an effective vaccine against Covid-19 turns out to be illusory. The Netherlands vs Belgium is a much better comparison for pragmatic smart lockdowns that work vs blanket heavy handed policies that don't. Both countries have broadly comparable population densities to the UK. They are now running neck and neck but Belgium destroyed its economy a lot more comprehensively and annoyed its NHS to the extent that they turned their backs on their Prime Minister as a mark of disrespect. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/belgian-healthcare-workers-turn-their-backs-on-prime-minister-in-powerful-silent-protest/ar-BB14eLfa -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On Thu, 24 Sep 2020 11:52:20 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:>On 23/09/2020 17:47, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.syseng.yyy@gfsys.co.uk> >> wrote: >> >>> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: >>>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" >>>> <keith@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: >>>> >>>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote: >>>>> ... >>>>>> Japan just had a big, fairly deadly second peak, and they are diligent >>>>>> mask-wearers who don't much shake hands. >>>>>> >>>>> Japan's "big" peak had a death rate of about 14 per day; compared with ~800 for the US with about 3 times the population. >>>>> >>>>> That's less than 2% of that in the US. >>>>> >>>>>> The relationships between mask wearing and case rates, or mask wearing >>>>>> and death rates, may not be forward causal. >>>>> >>>>> I suppose another way of saying that might be: "Japan, where mask-wearing is practiced and people don't shake hands much, has only 1/50th of the fatality rate of the US where mask-wearing is condemned by some groups of people." >>>>> >>>>> It seems to me there might be a correlation. >>>> >>>> But why are there big second peaks in France and Japan and many other >>>> places? With relatively few deaths? >>>> >>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/ >>>> >>>> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ >>>> >>> >>> Better test and perhaps tracing ?... >>> >>> Chris >> >> This is interesting in several places: >> >> https://judithcurry.com/2020/09/22/herd-immunity-to-covid-19-and-pre-existing-immune-responses/ >> > >Wishful righttard "thinking". >She is well known for promulgating anti-science. > >> For example... >> >> In the hospital where I work, there isn�t a single person currently >> being treated for covid. >> >> I haven�t seen a single covid patient in the Emergency Room in over >> two and a half months. >> >> When I sit in the tube on the way to and from work, it is packed with >> people. Maybe one in a hundred people is choosing to wear a face mask >> in public. In Stockholm, life is largely back to normal. If you look >> at the front pages of the tabloids, on many days there isn�t a single >> mention of covid anywhere. >> >> Covid is over in Sweden. We have herd immunity. > >The winter will be upon us soon enough and infections are already >rapidly rising in the UK - much earlier than I would have expected but >then our government has made some stupid decisions.UK is having a big second bump in cases, like France and Belgium and Netherlands and many other places. Just in time for winter.> >Sweden and The Netherlands may well have the best medium to long term >strategy if the promised Covid vaccines prove to be illusory or delayed. >We all now know that all over by Easter/Christmas was a bare faced lie!Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not. Lockdowns were successful in preserving a victim population for the virus to exploit. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 10:19:41 PM UTC+10, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> On Thu, 24 Sep 2020 11:52:20 +0100, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > > >On 23/09/2020 17:47, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: > >> On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:22:53 +0100, Chris <xxx.sys...@gfsys.co.uk> > >> wrote: > >> > >>> On 09/21/20 23:02, John Larkin wrote: > >>>> On Sun, 20 Sep 2020 18:28:12 -0700 (PDT), "ke...@kjwdesigns.com" > >>>> <ke...@kjwdesigns.com> wrote: > >>>> > >>>>> On Saturday, 19 September 2020 at 16:43:37 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:> >Sweden and The Netherlands may well have the best medium to long term > >strategy if the promised Covid vaccines prove to be illusory or delayed.Sweden is at 581 Covid-19 deaths per million people. That puts them firmly in the league of countries that didn't do anything partuclalry effective. The Netherlands at 386 ppm. isn't as bad - and whole lot better than Belgium at 858 ppm, but a whole lot worse than Germany at 113 ppm.> >We all now know that all over by Easter/Christmas was a bare faced lie!It was pure wishful thinking - not even a lie, just idiocy.> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not.The Dutch first bump peaked at about 1100 new cases per day. The second one has hit 2000 cases per day and is still rising. Sweden peaked at about 1045 per day back in June, had a second peak at about 300 per day about a month ago and is now back up to 326 and still rising. Neither is in any kind of good state.> > Lockdowns were successful in preserving a victim population for the > virus to exploit.Inadequate lock-downs and woeful contact tracing. Do it better, and there's not a lot of virus left hanging around to exploit the uninfected survivors. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 5:19:41 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not.There's other bump-ologies to consider, too; phrenology might explain why JL has such a fixation on Sweden. Sweden isn't the issue, it's the MYTH of Sweden that JL keeps addressing. Thing is, there's a pandemic, and mythic issues can be laid aside while vital ones are being discussed. Unless, of course, the discussion hosts too many folk with the odd bumps on their heads.
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On 24/09/2020 21:20, whit3rd wrote:> On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 5:19:41 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: > >> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not. > > There's other bump-ologies to consider, too; phrenology might explain why JL has such > a fixation on Sweden. > > Sweden isn't the issue, it's the MYTH of Sweden that JL keeps addressing. Thing is, > there's a pandemic, and mythic issues can be laid aside while vital ones are being discussed. > Unless, of course, the discussion hosts too many folk with the odd bumps on their heads.But are they Gaussian bumps? ;-) -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●September 24, 20202020-09-24
On Thu, 24 Sep 2020 22:07:14 +0100, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:>On 24/09/2020 21:20, whit3rd wrote: >> On Thursday, September 24, 2020 at 5:19:41 AM UTC-7, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> >>> Netherlands is having a huge second bump. Sweden is not. >> >> There's other bump-ologies to consider, too; phrenology might explain why JL has such >> a fixation on Sweden. >> >> Sweden isn't the issue, it's the MYTH of Sweden that JL keeps addressing. Thing is, >> there's a pandemic, and mythic issues can be laid aside while vital ones are being discussed. >> Unless, of course, the discussion hosts too many folk with the odd bumps on their heads. > >But are they Gaussian bumps? ;-)There's no way to tell. I have way too much hair. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
