On 11/28/2022 7:44 PM, bitrex wrote:> On 11/28/2022 1:04 AM, Don Y wrote: >> On 11/27/2022 10:16 PM, Ed Lee wrote: >>> On Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 9:03:34 PM UTC-8, Don Y wrote: >>>> On 11/26/2022 3:20 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 4:05:55 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >>>>>> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>>>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >>>>>>>> So, why is china stuck on these draconian "zero covid" policies? >>>>>>>> Of course, in as populous a nation, the potential *cost* to their >>>>>>>> "system" is magnified. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> But, are their vaccines (and other remedies) so significantly >>>>>>>> ineffective that they have to rely on avoidance disproportionately >>>>>>>> so? It seems an inordinately high price to pay (the damages their >>>>>>>> economy is seeing seem to dwarf any of the measures put in place, >>>>>>>> here, at the peak of the epidemic) >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Or, is it all a matter of saving face: "I pushed this policy and >>>>>>>> this policy is going to be THE solution, damn it!" >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> In The West, it seems like life is largely returning to normal -- >>>>>>>> even though a threat persists. Are we just more willing to face >>>>>>>> the consequences than china? Or, are our potential consequences >>>>>>>> considerably more benign than theirs? >>>>>>> >>>>>>> There's no such thing as pushback in China, unless you want a trip >>>>>>> to the execution ditch. Xi Jinping has decided that lockdowns are >>>>>>> the answer, so that makes everything final. >>>>>> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. Even if no >>>>>> one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has to know that they will >>>>>> *look* stupid to anyone who cares... including foreign investors. >>>>>> >>>>>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing center), is >>>>>> that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the folks who support >>>>>> him? >>>>>> >>>>>> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are no other >>>>>> effective alternatives available. My understanding is that vaccination >>>>>> rates (regardless of how effective the vaccine is) are low, there. Why >>>>>> hasn't he mandated universal vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution >>>>>> problems?) >>>>> >>>>> They have a high vaccination rate: >>>>> https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-rate/ >>>> >>>>> >> So, is it a shit vaccine? Or, has it not been updated to reflect more >>>> recent strains? >>> >>> Perhaps not as effective, but not really the issue. Even if they have top >>> of the line mRNA vaccines, there will be certain amount of break-thru cases. >>> Even 10s of thousands are small for a billion people. But Xi/CCP outlaws >>> any case at all. The Emperor said zero and how dare you report it >>> otherwise. >> >> As I said (below), it's hard to imagine this boils down to hubris. >> >> Surely, by now, Xi could have "fudged" a solution that allows him to save >> face (claim victory) *and* alter the policy. He can't be THAT stupid >> (he doesn't LOOK "orange") > > He isn't entirely supreme leader, of course. No dictator is really a law unto > himself; China has a party leadership structure and corpo-state bureaucracy > that also wields significant power of a more behind-the-scenes type. > > That is to say if a policy isn't at least somewhat beneficial to the gander > then the goose will find it very difficult to maintain all by himself (there's > probably some Chinese proverb that says something like that but I don't know it.)That's my point. If his "policy" is seen as detrimental to the country (and, specifically, those who want power within its structure), it will eventually lose support of those necessary for enforcing it AND keeping the policy creator in that position of policy creation. It would make sense to stick to a policy if all of the alternatives were likely to yield *worse* outcomes. E.g., if high living/working density would allow an outbreak to claim large numbers of victims AND, even without mortality, that caused the healthcare system to collapse or businesses to shutter because "everyone is out, sick". [Which is why I question if there isn't some more rational *fear* of alternative outcomes at play, here]
OT: China covid
Started by ●November 26, 2022
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On 11/28/2022 7:35 PM, bitrex wrote:> On 11/26/2022 4:05 PM, Don Y wrote: >> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >>>> So, why is china stuck on these draconian "zero covid" policies? Of >>>> course, in as populous a nation, the potential *cost* to their "system" is >>>> magnified. >>>> >>>> But, are their vaccines (and other remedies) so significantly ineffective >>>> that they have to rely on avoidance disproportionately so? It seems an >>>> inordinately high price to pay (the damages their economy is seeing seem >>>> to dwarf any of the measures put in place, here, at the peak of the epidemic) >>>> >>>> Or, is it all a matter of saving face: "I pushed this policy and this >>>> policy is going to be THE solution, damn it!" >>>> >>>> In The West, it seems like life is largely returning to normal -- even >>>> though a threat persists. Are we just more willing to face the consequences >>>> than china? Or, are our potential consequences considerably >>>> more benign than theirs? >>> >>> There's no such thing as pushback in China, unless you want a trip to the >>> execution ditch. Xi Jinping has decided that lockdowns are the answer, so >>> that makes everything final. >> >> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. >> Even if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has >> to know that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... >> including foreign investors. > > Conversely the Chinese leadership figures there was a huge cost in lives to > America's more ad hoc approach to pandemic control. A million excess deaths > over the past 2.5 years might have translated to 25 million there, _also_ would > have probably not been good optics for a nation with the Cultural Revolution > and Great Leap Forward not too far in the rearview..Yes, but the death rate, in The West, has fallen -- vaccinations, viral mutations, etc. So, does he fear that the Chinese *won't* see a reduction in death rate? Shitty vaccine? Poor uptake? Different mutations? When will he expect to achieve "close (enough) to zero"? How much social unrest and economic upheaval is he willing to incur for "a little CLOSER to zero"?>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing >> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the >> folks who support him? >> >> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are >> no other effective alternatives available. My understanding >> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the >> vaccine is) are low, there. Why hasn't he mandated universal >> vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution problems?) > > I recall one Chinese finance wonk opining that long Covid is going to be a > serious long problem for Western economies. It's perhaps an overblown fear but > seems to be one the Chinese leadership deeply harbors, also.The opposite now seems to be the case; The West is moving on and China is still stuck in 2019 -- with no *end* in sight!> But they're in a pickle, now. Zero-Covid has been very effective at limiting > death toll but since they have been lackluster about pushing vaccines (for a > variety of reasons including that many Chinese citizens are as uneducated and > vaccine-hesitant as Americans..) they can't just stop because there are so many > particularly elderly virus-naive people just waiting to get hit.Yet, in an society as authoritarian as to be able to "lock down" entire metropolitan areas "indefinitely" and mandate frequent testing of the populace for the privilege of being able to go about their daily lives, he can't *mandate* a vaccination? You can beat protesters but can't innoculate them?> Inhalablevaccines may helpAh, *that's* what's in the contrails! Sneaky...
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On 28/11/2022 21:29, Fred Bloggs wrote:> On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 12:22:29 AM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org > wrote: >> On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 4:03:34 PM UTC+11, Don Y wrote: >>> On 11/26/2022 3:20 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 4:05:55 PM UTC-5, Don Y >>>> wrote: >>>>> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>>> So, why is china stuck on these draconian "zero covid" >>>>>>> policies? Of course, in as populous a nation, the >>>>>>> potential *cost* to their "system" is magnified. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> But, are their vaccines (and other remedies) so >>>>>>> significantly ineffective that they have to rely on >>>>>>> avoidance disproportionately so? It seems an inordinately >>>>>>> high price to pay (the damages their economy is seeing >>>>>>> seem to dwarf any of the measures put in place, here, at >>>>>>> the peak of the epidemic) >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Or, is it all a matter of saving face: "I pushed this >>>>>>> policy and this policy is going to be THE solution, damn >>>>>>> it!" >>>>>>> >>>>>>> In The West, it seems like life is largely returning to >>>>>>> normal -- even though a threat persists. Are we just more >>>>>>> willing to face the consequences than china? Or, are our >>>>>>> potential consequences considerably more benign than >>>>>>> theirs? >>>>>> >>>>>> There's no such thing as pushback in China, unless you want >>>>>> a trip to the execution ditch. Xi Jinping has decided that >>>>>> lockdowns are the answer, so that makes everything final. >>>>> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. Even >>>>> if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has to know >>>>> that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... including >>>>> foreign investors. >>>>> >>>>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing >>>>> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the >>>>> folks who support him? >>>>> >>>>> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are >>>>> no other effective alternatives available. My understanding >>>>> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the >>>>> vaccine is) are low, there. Why hasn't he mandated universal >>>>> vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution problems?) >>>> >>>> They have a high vaccination rate: >>>> https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-rate/ >>> >>> >>>>So, is it a shit vaccine? Or, has it not been updated to reflect more recent strains?>> It's not a great vaccine. Indonesia bought a lot of it, and while >> it does offer some protection, quite a few vaccinated people caught >> Covid-19 and died. > > There is such a thing as racial response to vaccination. Some groups > don't respond as well as others.In this case though it seems fairly clear now that the Sinovac has a 70% effectiveness against serious hospitalising Covid infections and death whereas any of the mRNA or AZ/J&J viral vector vaccines are 90% effective. They also have a really bad demographics problem in China where people over the age of 80 do not believe in modern medicine. There was a piece on BBC News about the bind that China finds itself in. About half of the most vulnerable Chinese are not vaccinated at all! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63786072 Basically they prefer tigers balls and rhino horn potions as a "cure". The big problem for them now is that Omicron has become so infective that no plausible measures will prevent it from spreading quickly in the community. If anyone could have done it Japan would but even there they are having similar issues to the UK with Omicron spreading irrespective of any counter measures (they are still all masked when indoors). UK might be reaching a point where the baseline level of 1 million people a week with Covid finally starts to fall a bit. I suspect we will see a sharp rise in Covid rates when university students come home for Xmas in a couple of weeks time (as happened in previous years).>> It's a whole virus vaccine, and relatively minor mutations let the >> let the virus change it's shape enough to evade the antibodies it >> evokes. > > That's can be an asset of the whole virus vaccine because it also > invokes antibody response against other capsid proteins that are > conserved with the variants. The whole virus vaccine is a scatter > gun, the mRNA vaccine is a sniper rifle.In fact it isn't a particularly good vaccine as is shown by the fact that even with two doses of Sinovac death rates are 3x higher than with either mRNA or AZ/J&J& style vaccines. The problem here is that China does not want to lose face and import doses of a foreign vaccine.>> The western vaccines programmed your cells to produce just the >> original spike protein, which is fairly highly conserved, They >> aren't all that effective against the most recent strains, but the >> Moderna bivbalent vaccine programs your cells to produce a couple >> of different spike proteins, closer to those expressed by the more >> recent variants. I've had the vaccine, and I still haven't caught >> Covid-19 yet. > > The mRNA programs only a small area of muscle cells in the deltoid > where it is injected. The proximity of a major lymph node nearby in > the underarm guarantees the immune surveillance cells are going to > pick it up. The immune system comes to the vaccine, the vaccine > doesn't go to it. The mRNA burns out the affected muscle cell > producing large quantities of membrane spike proteins. The cell is > destroyed, but because it's in the muscle, it will be replaced by a > new muscle cell, making everything good as new. That's another reason > why the vaccine is injected into the muscle tissue. Many of the fool > idiot ignoramus anti-vaxxers think the vaccine permeates every cell > in the body, that is obviously untrue and removed from reality. > Nothing in the vaccine circulates throughout the entire body. Now the > vaccine induced inflammation, which is a term used to broadly > describe immune response to the vaccine in all its varied forms, that > does circulate throughout the body. But it's a lot less damaging than > the real infection. > > It seems the Omicron and its follow-on variants are so mild it's not > worth getting vaccinated against. But the health authorities are > still recommending it, so be it.It is probably really only so mild because Covid has by now killed most of the people that were vulnerable in places like the UK. Most people now are at least double vaccinated plus one or two boosters. That level of protection is sufficient to make it comparable with bad flu. However, if you have any comorbidity factors even with a fully vaccinated and boosted status you are still in potential danger with a Covid infection. I know of one recent case like that amongst friends. It is a bit milder than the previous twice as deadly delta strain but Omicron is about as dangerous to the most vulnerable as the original wild strain that we started with. However it is much more infective.>>> It's hard to imagine "hubris" is driving their country off a >>> cliff. >>> >>>> Dunno what they're thinking. Chinese know China better than we >>>> do, let them run the place. >>> >>> I suspect foreign investors will take heed of the inadequacy of >>> their approach and "reward" them, justly. >> Lock-downs don't help production. Neither do a lot of Covid-19 >> infections.The point is though that in the under 45's unless you have some serious comorbidity you would be very unlucky to be killed by Covid whether you are vaccinated or not. The breakdown in the UK shows that individuals under 45 killed by Covid is about a hundred out of 11000 (1% of all Covid deaths). See Deaths Involving Covid by Age graph here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 The heat map of where has been hit hardest is also nearly perfectly correlated with those areas which are the poorest, overcrowded and most disadvantaged. IOW places where their health was already compromised. -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On 29/11/2022 06:45, Don Y wrote:> On 11/28/2022 7:35 PM, bitrex wrote: >> On 11/26/2022 4:05 PM, Don Y wrote: >>> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >>>>> So, why is china stuck on these draconian "zero covid" policies? Of >>>>> course, in as populous a nation, the potential *cost* to their >>>>> "system" is >>>>> magnified. >>>>> >>>>> But, are their vaccines (and other remedies) so significantly >>>>> ineffective that they have to rely on avoidance disproportionately >>>>> so? It seems an >>>>> inordinately high price to pay (the damages their economy is seeing >>>>> seem >>>>> to dwarf any of the measures put in place, here, at the peak of the >>>>> epidemic) >>>>> >>>>> Or, is it all a matter of saving face: "I pushed this policy and >>>>> this policy is going to be THE solution, damn it!" >>>>> >>>>> In The West, it seems like life is largely returning to normal -- >>>>> even though a threat persists. Are we just more willing to face the >>>>> consequences than china? Or, are our potential consequences >>>>> considerably >>>>> more benign than theirs? >>>> >>>> There's no such thing as pushback in China, unless you want a trip >>>> to the >>>> execution ditch. Xi Jinping has decided that lockdowns are the >>>> answer, so >>>> that makes everything final. >>> >>> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. >>> Even if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has >>> to know that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... >>> including foreign investors. >> >> Conversely the Chinese leadership figures there was a huge cost in >> lives to America's more ad hoc approach to pandemic control. A million >> excess deaths over the past 2.5 years might have translated to 25 >> million there, _also_ would have probably not been good optics for a >> nation with the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward not too far >> in the rearview.. > > Yes, but the death rate, in The West, has fallen -- vaccinations, > viral mutations, etc. > > So, does he fear that the Chinese *won't* see a reduction in > death rate? Shitty vaccine? Poor uptake? Different mutations?A combination of a mediocre vaccine that is 3x less effective at preventing deaths than any of the Western vaccines, coupled with poor uptake in the most vulnerable elderly groups and they are now seeing much more infectious Omicron style variants that are vaccine escapees. The vaccines now can only really stop you getting very sick it offers only limited protection against catching it. It remains to be seen if the bimodal vaccine (which I have recently had) will make any difference against the next wave of Covid which I reckon will peak in the UK in February (if previous cycles here are anything to go by).> > When will he expect to achieve "close (enough) to zero"? How > much social unrest and economic upheaval is he willing to > incur for "a little CLOSER to zero"?Apparently a great deal. They may even end up killing people on the streets "to save their lives" much like with Tiananmen square. Their police have already beaten up a BBC cameraman "to protect him from catching Covid" (sic).> >>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing >>> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the >>> folks who support him? >>> >>> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are >>> no other effective alternatives available. My understanding >>> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the >>> vaccine is) are low, there. Why hasn't he mandated universal >>> vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution problems?) >> >> I recall one Chinese finance wonk opining that long Covid is going to >> be a serious long problem for Western economies. It's perhaps an >> overblown fear but seems to be one the Chinese leadership deeply >> harbors, also. > > The opposite now seems to be the case; The West is moving on and > China is still stuck in 2019 -- with no *end* in sight!It is weird but it is a bind of their own making. What worked to keep Covid under control and almost eliminate it at the outset doesn't work at all now against the far more infective Omicron strains. Unfortunately they refuse to alter their stated "Zero Covid" strategy.> >> But they're in a pickle, now. Zero-Covid has been very effective at >> limiting death toll but since they have been lackluster about pushing >> vaccines (for a variety of reasons including that many Chinese >> citizens are as uneducated and vaccine-hesitant as Americans..) they >> can't just stop because there are so many particularly elderly >> virus-naive people just waiting to get hit. > > Yet, in an society as authoritarian as to be able to "lock down" > entire metropolitan areas "indefinitely" and mandate frequent > testing of the populace for the privilege of being able to go about > their daily lives, he can't *mandate* a vaccination? You can beat > protesters but can't innoculate them?Partly a problem of scale in such a huge country. Chinese New Year travel could spread the whole thing out of control if it goes ahead this year. -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On 11/29/2022 4:46 AM, Martin Brown wrote:> On 29/11/2022 06:45, Don Y wrote: >> On 11/28/2022 7:35 PM, bitrex wrote: >>> On 11/26/2022 4:05 PM, Don Y wrote: >>>> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >>>>>> So, why is china stuck on these draconian "zero covid" policies? Of >>>>>> course, in as populous a nation, the potential *cost* to their "system" is >>>>>> magnified. >>>>>> >>>>>> But, are their vaccines (and other remedies) so significantly ineffective >>>>>> that they have to rely on avoidance disproportionately so? It seems an >>>>>> inordinately high price to pay (the damages their economy is seeing seem >>>>>> to dwarf any of the measures put in place, here, at the peak of the >>>>>> epidemic) >>>>>> >>>>>> Or, is it all a matter of saving face: "I pushed this policy and this >>>>>> policy is going to be THE solution, damn it!" >>>>>> >>>>>> In The West, it seems like life is largely returning to normal -- even >>>>>> though a threat persists. Are we just more willing to face the >>>>>> consequences than china? Or, are our potential consequences considerably >>>>>> more benign than theirs? >>>>> >>>>> There's no such thing as pushback in China, unless you want a trip to the >>>>> execution ditch. Xi Jinping has decided that lockdowns are the answer, so >>>>> that makes everything final. >>>> >>>> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. >>>> Even if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has >>>> to know that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... >>>> including foreign investors. >>> >>> Conversely the Chinese leadership figures there was a huge cost in lives to >>> America's more ad hoc approach to pandemic control. A million excess deaths >>> over the past 2.5 years might have translated to 25 million there, _also_ >>> would have probably not been good optics for a nation with the Cultural >>> Revolution and Great Leap Forward not too far in the rearview.. >> >> Yes, but the death rate, in The West, has fallen -- vaccinations, >> viral mutations, etc. >> >> So, does he fear that the Chinese *won't* see a reduction in >> death rate? Shitty vaccine? Poor uptake? Different mutations? > > A combination of a mediocre vaccine that is 3x less effective at preventing > deaths than any of the Western vaccines, coupled with poor uptake in the most > vulnerable elderly groups and they are now seeing much more infectious Omicron > style variants that are vaccine escapees.I can understand the NIH wrt the vaccine sourcing; heaven forbid trading stuffed teddy bears for life saving medicines/treatments! But, I still don't understand why EVERYONE hasn't been vaccinated. I guess this reflects my lack of understanding of Chinese society and the role gummit plays in it. I'd *assumed* Xi had (effectively) limitless power directly and indirectly. I.e., if he could keep you locked in your house, hotel, factory, etc. for long periods, then he could force you to be vaccinated. And, if "forcing" isn't culturally acceptable, then he could ENTICE you to do so by, for example, allowing you to leave your home and go to work, buy supplies, etc. iff vaccinated. E.g., to get a driver's license in CO, you have to be fingerprinted. You can *avoid* the fingerprinting -- if you are willing to live without the legal authority to operate a motor vehicle. That's a pretty big carrot/stick! The fact that he *hasn't* fallen back to such a policy suggests he either is 100.0% convinced he's "got the correct approach" (despite evidence to the contrary) *or* that he realizes that vaccination isn't the answer, given their population density/working conditions. Another option might be his fear that if "big (bad) numbers" materialize, then he'll look like a third-world country, in terms of mortality and healthcare response. As if people judging him wouldn't be smart enough to factor their specific conditions into the assessment.> The vaccines now can only really stop you getting very sick it offers only > limited protection against catching it. It remains to be seen if the bimodal > vaccine (which I have recently had)Good luck with that. I'm delaying my next "booster" in the hope of extending its efficacy "on the tail end" (as I suspect there won't be any/many more, after this)> will make any difference against the next > wave of Covid which I reckon will peak in the UK in February (if previous > cycles here are anything to go by).We are seeing a slight uptick, here, as the "winter visitors" arrive. They're focused on *activities* -- eating out, socializing, etc. So, stir the viral pot. Of course, our (large, local) healthcare industry is always delighted to see more beds in service... dollars are dollars, regardless of whether they were sourced locally or "imported" from other parts of the country!>> When will he expect to achieve "close (enough) to zero"? How >> much social unrest and economic upheaval is he willing to >> incur for "a little CLOSER to zero"? > > Apparently a great deal. They may even end up killing people on the streets "to > save their lives" much like with Tiananmen square. > > Their police have already beaten up a BBC cameraman "to protect him from > catching Covid" (sic).But he can't innoculate them, "with force"?>>>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing >>>> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the >>>> folks who support him? >>>> >>>> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are >>>> no other effective alternatives available. My understanding >>>> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the >>>> vaccine is) are low, there. Why hasn't he mandated universal >>>> vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution problems?) >>> >>> I recall one Chinese finance wonk opining that long Covid is going to be a >>> serious long problem for Western economies. It's perhaps an overblown fear >>> but seems to be one the Chinese leadership deeply harbors, also. >> >> The opposite now seems to be the case; The West is moving on and >> China is still stuck in 2019 -- with no *end* in sight! > > It is weird but it is a bind of their own making. What worked to keep Covid > under control and almost eliminate it at the outset doesn't work at all now > against the far more infective Omicron strains. Unfortunately they refuse to > alter their stated "Zero Covid" strategy.Which brings back the initial question. Is it hubris? Or, are there other issues that will possibly/likely manifest that would be/look far worse? (What can look worse than beating up your own citizenry??)>>> But they're in a pickle, now. Zero-Covid has been very effective at limiting >>> death toll but since they have been lackluster about pushing vaccines (for a >>> variety of reasons including that many Chinese citizens are as uneducated >>> and vaccine-hesitant as Americans..) they can't just stop because there are >>> so many particularly elderly virus-naive people just waiting to get hit. >> >> Yet, in an society as authoritarian as to be able to "lock down" >> entire metropolitan areas "indefinitely" and mandate frequent >> testing of the populace for the privilege of being able to go about >> their daily lives, he can't *mandate* a vaccination? You can beat >> protesters but can't innoculate them? > > Partly a problem of scale in such a huge country. Chinese New Year travel could > spread the whole thing out of control if it goes ahead this year.And, of course, there won't be any viral spread from the protests... <rolls eyes>
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 12:13:26 AM UTC+11, Don Y wrote:> On 11/29/2022 4:46 AM, Martin Brown wrote: > > On 29/11/2022 06:45, Don Y wrote: > >> On 11/28/2022 7:35 PM, bitrex wrote: > >>> On 11/26/2022 4:05 PM, Don Y wrote: > >>>> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > >>>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:<snip>> > The vaccines now can only really stop you getting very sick it offers only > > limited protection against catching it. It remains to be seen if the bimodal > > vaccine (which I have recently had). > > Good luck with that. I'm delaying my next "booster" in the hope of > extending its efficacy "on the tail end" (as I suspect there won't > be any/many more, after this).Don't be silly. We've been getting new flu vaccines for years to keep u up with the steady flow mutations in the flu virus, and we are going to keep on getting up-dated Covid vaccines for exactly the same reason. The Moderna bivalent vaccines is just the first of a never-ending stream of up-dated Covid vaccines - we will probably end up getting a new one every year, with the new seasons flu vaccine.> > will make any difference against the next wave of Covid which I reckon will peak in the UK in February (if previous cycles here are anything to go by).Should do. The Covid spike protein is more highly conserved than the flu virus coating. It's still changed enough to let Omicron strains of Covid infect people who are fully vaccinated with the original vaccines, and a spike protein antigen that is closer to the one presented by the Omicron strains should get your immune system to generate more effective antibodies. But everybody generates their own antibodies. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 5:18:14 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown wrote:> On 28/11/2022 21:29, Fred Bloggs wrote: > > On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 12:22:29 AM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org > > wrote: > >> On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 4:03:34 PM UTC+11, Don Y wrote: > >>> On 11/26/2022 3:20 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > >>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 4:05:55 PM UTC-5, Don Y > >>>> wrote: > >>>>> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > >>>>>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y > >>>>>> wrote: > >>>>>>> So, why is china stuck on these draconian "zero covid" > >>>>>>> policies? Of course, in as populous a nation, the > >>>>>>> potential *cost* to their "system" is magnified. > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> But, are their vaccines (and other remedies) so > >>>>>>> significantly ineffective that they have to rely on > >>>>>>> avoidance disproportionately so? It seems an inordinately > >>>>>>> high price to pay (the damages their economy is seeing > >>>>>>> seem to dwarf any of the measures put in place, here, at > >>>>>>> the peak of the epidemic) > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> Or, is it all a matter of saving face: "I pushed this > >>>>>>> policy and this policy is going to be THE solution, damn > >>>>>>> it!" > >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> In The West, it seems like life is largely returning to > >>>>>>> normal -- even though a threat persists. Are we just more > >>>>>>> willing to face the consequences than china? Or, are our > >>>>>>> potential consequences considerably more benign than > >>>>>>> theirs? > >>>>>> > >>>>>> There's no such thing as pushback in China, unless you want > >>>>>> a trip to the execution ditch. Xi Jinping has decided that > >>>>>> lockdowns are the answer, so that makes everything final. > >>>>> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. Even > >>>>> if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has to know > >>>>> that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... including > >>>>> foreign investors. > >>>>> > >>>>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing > >>>>> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the > >>>>> folks who support him? > >>>>> > >>>>> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are > >>>>> no other effective alternatives available. My understanding > >>>>> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the > >>>>> vaccine is) are low, there. Why hasn't he mandated universal > >>>>> vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution problems?) > >>>> > >>>> They have a high vaccination rate: > >>>> https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-rate/ > >>> > >>> > >>>> > So, is it a shit vaccine? Or, has it not been updated to reflect more > recent strains? > >> It's not a great vaccine. Indonesia bought a lot of it, and while > >> it does offer some protection, quite a few vaccinated people caught > >> Covid-19 and died. > > > > There is such a thing as racial response to vaccination. Some groups > > don't respond as well as others. > In this case though it seems fairly clear now that the Sinovac has a 70% > effectiveness against serious hospitalising Covid infections and death > whereas any of the mRNA or AZ/J&J viral vector vaccines are 90% > effective. They also have a really bad demographics problem in China > where people over the age of 80 do not believe in modern medicine.70% effectiveness is actually outstandingly good for a conventional whole virus vaccine. The original U.S. target for COVID-19 vaccine approval was just 50%. Then the mRNA vaccine has this unprecedented effectiveness which seems too good to be true. Actually it is too good to be true because it fades significantly by six months to no better than the whole virus vaccine. Whole virus vaccines have a track record of inducing immunity for life, the mRNA do not. People always point to the flu vaccine, another whole virus vaccine, but there the effectiveness goes out the window with extremely high mutation rate of the virus. An additional complication with the death rate statistic is the people in China aren't going to get anywhere near the same medical care as people in the advanced countries, so the death rate will be significantly higher even if they used the adavanced vaccine technology.> > There was a piece on BBC News about the bind that China finds itself in. > About half of the most vulnerable Chinese are not vaccinated at all! > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63786072 > > Basically they prefer tigers balls and rhino horn potions as a "cure". > > The big problem for them now is that Omicron has become so infective > that no plausible measures will prevent it from spreading quickly in the > community. If anyone could have done it Japan would but even there they > are having similar issues to the UK with Omicron spreading irrespective > of any counter measures (they are still all masked when indoors). > > UK might be reaching a point where the baseline level of 1 million > people a week with Covid finally starts to fall a bit. I suspect we will > see a sharp rise in Covid rates when university students come home for > Xmas in a couple of weeks time (as happened in previous years). > >> It's a whole virus vaccine, and relatively minor mutations let the > >> let the virus change it's shape enough to evade the antibodies it > >> evokes. > > > > That's can be an asset of the whole virus vaccine because it also > > invokes antibody response against other capsid proteins that are > > conserved with the variants. The whole virus vaccine is a scatter > > gun, the mRNA vaccine is a sniper rifle. > In fact it isn't a particularly good vaccine as is shown by the fact > that even with two doses of Sinovac death rates are 3x higher than with > either mRNA or AZ/J&J& style vaccines. The problem here is that China > does not want to lose face and import doses of a foreign vaccine.The modern vaccines are a huge expense. Western governments talk up how tragic the death rates are, but the truth of the matter is they know the death rates are almost all among the infirm and they're relieved to be rid of them and the excess overhead they bring to the operating costs of the government. China is probably thinking the same thing.> >> The western vaccines programmed your cells to produce just the > >> original spike protein, which is fairly highly conserved, They > >> aren't all that effective against the most recent strains, but the > >> Moderna bivbalent vaccine programs your cells to produce a couple > >> of different spike proteins, closer to those expressed by the more > >> recent variants. I've had the vaccine, and I still haven't caught > >> Covid-19 yet. > > > > The mRNA programs only a small area of muscle cells in the deltoid > > where it is injected. The proximity of a major lymph node nearby in > > the underarm guarantees the immune surveillance cells are going to > > pick it up. The immune system comes to the vaccine, the vaccine > > doesn't go to it. The mRNA burns out the affected muscle cell > > producing large quantities of membrane spike proteins. The cell is > > destroyed, but because it's in the muscle, it will be replaced by a > > new muscle cell, making everything good as new. That's another reason > > why the vaccine is injected into the muscle tissue. Many of the fool > > idiot ignoramus anti-vaxxers think the vaccine permeates every cell > > in the body, that is obviously untrue and removed from reality. > > Nothing in the vaccine circulates throughout the entire body. Now the > > vaccine induced inflammation, which is a term used to broadly > > describe immune response to the vaccine in all its varied forms, that > > does circulate throughout the body. But it's a lot less damaging than > > the real infection. > > > > It seems the Omicron and its follow-on variants are so mild it's not > > worth getting vaccinated against. But the health authorities are > > still recommending it, so be it. > It is probably really only so mild because Covid has by now killed most > of the people that were vulnerable in places like the UK. Most people > now are at least double vaccinated plus one or two boosters. That level > of protection is sufficient to make it comparable with bad flu. > > However, if you have any comorbidity factors even with a fully > vaccinated and boosted status you are still in potential danger with a > Covid infection. I know of one recent case like that amongst friends. > > It is a bit milder than the previous twice as deadly delta strain but > Omicron is about as dangerous to the most vulnerable as the original > wild strain that we started with. However it is much more infective. > >>> It's hard to imagine "hubris" is driving their country off a > >>> cliff. > >>> > >>>> Dunno what they're thinking. Chinese know China better than we > >>>> do, let them run the place. > >>> > >>> I suspect foreign investors will take heed of the inadequacy of > >>> their approach and "reward" them, justly. > >> Lock-downs don't help production. Neither do a lot of Covid-19 > >> infections. > The point is though that in the under 45's unless you have some serious > comorbidity you would be very unlucky to be killed by Covid whether you > are vaccinated or not. The breakdown in the UK shows that individuals > under 45 killed by Covid is about a hundred out of 11000 (1% of all > Covid deaths). See Deaths Involving Covid by Age graph here: > > https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 > > The heat map of where has been hit hardest is also nearly perfectly > correlated with those areas which are the poorest, overcrowded and most > disadvantaged. IOW places where their health was already compromised.Their health was compromised because they don't care about taking care of themselves. There are people out there who make complete wrecks of themselves by the time they reach 30.> > -- > Regards, > Martin Brown
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On Monday, November 28, 2022 at 12:03:34 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:> On 11/26/2022 3:20 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > > On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 4:05:55 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: > >> On 11/26/2022 1:03 PM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > >>> On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 12:27:19 PM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: > >>>> So, why is china stuck on these draconian "zero covid" policies? Of > >>>> course, in as populous a nation, the potential *cost* to their "system" is > >>>> magnified. > >>>> > >>>> But, are their vaccines (and other remedies) so significantly ineffective > >>>> that they have to rely on avoidance disproportionately so? It seems an > >>>> inordinately high price to pay (the damages their economy is seeing seem > >>>> to dwarf any of the measures put in place, here, at the peak of the > >>>> epidemic) > >>>> > >>>> Or, is it all a matter of saving face: "I pushed this policy and this > >>>> policy is going to be THE solution, damn it!" > >>>> > >>>> In The West, it seems like life is largely returning to normal -- even > >>>> though a threat persists. Are we just more willing to face the > >>>> consequences than china? Or, are our potential consequences considerably > >>>> more benign than theirs? > >>> > >>> There's no such thing as pushback in China, unless you want a trip to the > >>> execution ditch. Xi Jinping has decided that lockdowns are the answer, so > >>> that makes everything final. > >> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. > >> Even if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has > >> to know that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... > >> including foreign investors. > >> > >> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing > >> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the > >> folks who support him? > >> > >> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are > >> no other effective alternatives available. My understanding > >> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the > >> vaccine is) are low, there. Why hasn't he mandated universal > >> vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution problems?) > > > > They have a high vaccination rate: > > https://www.statista.com/statistics/1279024/china-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-rate/ > So, is it a shit vaccine? Or, has it not been updated to reflect more > recent strains?I think it's a good vaccine, but that's just my opinion. It's seldom that any vaccine is completely neutralizing, which means it prevents the virus from even starting an infection. Vaccines, like many medical treatments, mostly rely on your health to take care of you. Your immunity has to do the hard work of producing enough antibodies and killer lymphocytes to wipe the slate clean of virus. The vaccine doesn't do that for you. If you are in bad health or weak health, no vaccine will help you. You have to go to monoclonal antibodies or antivirals to save yourself. Those treatments usually get the virus population down to small enough levels that any semblance of an immune system can take over and finish it off. Neither of those treatments can completely rid your system of the virus. Only your immunity can do that.> > It's hard to imagine "hubris" is driving their country off a cliff. > > Dunno what they're thinking. Chinese know China better than we do, let them run the place. > I suspect foreign investors will take heed of the inadequacy of their > approach and "reward" them, justly.
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On 11/29/2022 8:32 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:>>> There is such a thing as racial response to vaccination. Some groups >>> don't respond as well as others. >> In this case though it seems fairly clear now that the Sinovac has a 70% >> effectiveness against serious hospitalising Covid infections and death >> whereas any of the mRNA or AZ/J&J viral vector vaccines are 90% effective. >> They also have a really bad demographics problem in China where people >> over the age of 80 do not believe in modern medicine. > > 70% effectiveness is actually outstandingly good for a conventional whole > virus vaccine. The original U.S. target for COVID-19 vaccine approval was > just 50%. Then the mRNA vaccine has this unprecedented effectiveness which > seems too good to be true. Actually it is too good to be true because it > fades significantly by six months to no better than the whole virus vaccine. > Whole virus vaccines have a track record of inducing immunity for life, theThat's not entirely true. There are many "childhood illnesses" that can come back and bite you, later in life, despite vaccination. Pertussis and varicella (and *then* "shingles") are notably resilient. Ditto mumps and meningococcal disease. Smallpox and polio, if at risk of exposure, also wane. Flu vaccines wane before the end of the flu *season*! It's all a numbers game; how quickly and strongly can your body mount a defense against how large of an infection.> mRNA do not. People always point to the flu vaccine, another whole virus > vaccine, but there the effectiveness goes out the window with extremely high > mutation rate of the virus. > > An additional complication with the death rate statistic is the people in > China aren't going to get anywhere near the same medical care as people in > the advanced countries, so the death rate will be significantly higher even > if they used the adavanced vaccine technology. > >> There was a piece on BBC News about the bind that China finds itself in. >> About half of the most vulnerable Chinese are not vaccinated at all! >> >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63786072 >> >> Basically they prefer tigers balls and rhino horn potions as a "cure". >> >> The big problem for them now is that Omicron has become so infective that >> no plausible measures will prevent it from spreading quickly in the >> community. If anyone could have done it Japan would but even there they >> are having similar issues to the UK with Omicron spreading irrespective of >> any counter measures (they are still all masked when indoors). >> >> UK might be reaching a point where the baseline level of 1 million people >> a week with Covid finally starts to fall a bit. I suspect we will see a >> sharp rise in Covid rates when university students come home for Xmas in a >> couple of weeks time (as happened in previous years). >>>> It's a whole virus vaccine, and relatively minor mutations let the let >>>> the virus change it's shape enough to evade the antibodies it evokes. >>> >>> That's can be an asset of the whole virus vaccine because it also >>> invokes antibody response against other capsid proteins that are >>> conserved with the variants. The whole virus vaccine is a scatter gun, >>> the mRNA vaccine is a sniper rifle. >> In fact it isn't a particularly good vaccine as is shown by the fact that >> even with two doses of Sinovac death rates are 3x higher than with either >> mRNA or AZ/J&J& style vaccines. The problem here is that China does not >> want to lose face and import doses of a foreign vaccine. > > The modern vaccines are a huge expense.And, as folks aren't clammoring for them, anymore, (I think only 10M doses of the most recent booster have been "claimed" -- for no cost) it is likely that the manufacturers will rethink the effort they put into developing boosters for new strains. ISTR north of 60M flu shots so far, this year. OTOH, only 10M (?) of the latest covid boosters.> Western governments talk up how tragic the death rates are, but the truth of > the matter is they know the death rates are almost all among the infirm and > they're relieved to be rid of them and the excess overhead they bring to the > operating costs of the government. China is probably thinking the same > thing.Those affected, in China, can't *vote*...>>>>>> Dunno what they're thinking. Chinese know China better than we do, >>>>>> let them run the place. >>>>> >>>>> I suspect foreign investors will take heed of the inadequacy of >>>>> their approach and "reward" them, justly. >>>> Lock-downs don't help production. Neither do a lot of Covid-19 >>>> infections. >> The point is though that in the under 45's unless you have some serious >> comorbidity you would be very unlucky to be killed by Covid whether you >> are vaccinated or not. The breakdown in the UK shows that individuals >> under 45 killed by Covid is about a hundred out of 11000 (1% of all Covid >> deaths). See Deaths Involving Covid by Age graph here: >> >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 >> >> The heat map of where has been hit hardest is also nearly perfectly >> correlated with those areas which are the poorest, overcrowded and most >> disadvantaged. IOW places where their health was already compromised. > > Their health was compromised because they don't care about taking care of > themselves. There are people out there who make complete wrecks of > themselves by the time they reach 30.There are also a good many who don't have practical options to *do* take care of themselves. There are many places where access to affordable *good* food is scarce -- as is access to healthcare. And, you have to have "spare time" to really take care of yourself -- even the "30 minutes of exercise" needs 30 *free* minutes.
Reply by ●November 29, 20222022-11-29
On 11/29/2022 8:56 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:> I think it's a good vaccine, but that's just my opinion. It's seldom that > any vaccine is completely neutralizing, which means it prevents the virus > from even starting an infection. Vaccines, like many medical treatments, > mostly rely on your health to take care of you. Your immunity has to do the > hard work of producing enough antibodies and killer lymphocytes to wipe the > slate clean of virus. The vaccine doesn't do that for you. If you are in bad > health or weak health, no vaccine will help you. You have to go to > monoclonal antibodies or antivirals to save yourself. Those treatments > usually get the virus population down to small enough levels that any > semblance of an immune system can take over and finish it off. Neither of > those treatments can completely rid your system of the virus. Only your > immunity can do that.There is a limit as to the amount of virus your immune system can clear. Folks who are continuously exposed to it (e.g., 8 hour workshifts) likely have a lot harder time fighting off infection than folks who are only briefly exposed -- regardless of immune system integrity. Those of us with greater control over our environment are likely better able to deal with the potential of infection than those who are largely at the mercy of others/events with theirs.
