On 29/11/2022 13:13, Don Y wrote:> On 11/29/2022 4:46 AM, Martin Brown wrote: >> On 29/11/2022 06:45, Don Y wrote: >>> On 11/28/2022 7:35 PM, bitrex wrote: >>>> On 11/26/2022 4:05 PM, Don Y wrote: >>>>> >>>>> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. >>>>> Even if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has >>>>> to know that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... >>>>> including foreign investors. >>>> >>>> Conversely the Chinese leadership figures there was a huge cost in >>>> lives to America's more ad hoc approach to pandemic control. A >>>> million excess deaths over the past 2.5 years might have translated >>>> to 25 million there, _also_ would have probably not been good optics >>>> for a nation with the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward not >>>> too far in the rearview.. >>> >>> Yes, but the death rate, in The West, has fallen -- vaccinations, >>> viral mutations, etc. >>> >>> So, does he fear that the Chinese *won't* see a reduction in >>> death rate? Shitty vaccine? Poor uptake? Different mutations? >> >> A combination of a mediocre vaccine that is 3x less effective at >> preventing deaths than any of the Western vaccines, coupled with poor >> uptake in the most vulnerable elderly groups and they are now seeing >> much more infectious Omicron style variants that are vaccine escapees. > > I can understand the NIH wrt the vaccine sourcing; heaven forbid trading > stuffed teddy bears for life saving medicines/treatments!ITYM iPhones and other high tech consumer gear made in China.> But, I still don't understand why EVERYONE hasn't been vaccinated.China is an incredibly big country and spans everything from full first world quality healthcare and living standards in the major cities to third world poverty and superstition in the remote rural areas. I doubt if there is any other country except India with the same problems as China. India of course is a major vaccine manufacturer and has ended up with doses they had to throw away fro time expired.> I guess this reflects my lack of understanding of Chinese society > and the role gummit plays in it. I'd *assumed* Xi had (effectively) > limitless power directly and indirectly. I.e., if he could keep > you locked in your house, hotel, factory, etc. for long periods, > then he could force you to be vaccinated. > > And, if "forcing" isn't culturally acceptable, then he could ENTICE > you to do so by, for example, allowing you to leave your home and > go to work, buy supplies, etc. iff vaccinated. E.g., to get a driver's > license in CO, you have to be fingerprinted. You can *avoid* the > fingerprinting -- if you are willing to live without the legal > authority to operate a motor vehicle. That's a pretty big carrot/stick!I don't understand it either. His power comes from his ability to dominate the huge committee of subordinates that he heads up. If that dominance should fail then he is toast (possibly quite literally).> The fact that he *hasn't* fallen back to such a policy suggests he > either is 100.0% convinced he's "got the correct approach" (despite > evidence to the contrary) *or* that he realizes that vaccination isn't > the answer, given their population density/working conditions. > > Another option might be his fear that if "big (bad) numbers" materialize, > then he'll look like a third-world country, in terms of mortality and > healthcare response. As if people judging him wouldn't be smart > enough to factor their specific conditions into the assessment.One way he could be brought down is if the Chinese people start to see the sort of suffering that happened in Italy at the outset of the original pandemic. They seem pretty close to boiling point now. The extent and severity of Chinese lockdowns has been extraordinary.> >> The vaccines now can only really stop you getting very sick it offers >> only limited protection against catching it. It remains to be seen if >> the bimodal vaccine (which I have recently had) > > Good luck with that. I'm delaying my next "booster" in the hope of > extending its efficacy "on the tail end" (as I suspect there won't > be any/many more, after this)I have already had Covid and so I figure that this booster will see me through the peak winter season with enough antibodies to resist it. I could be unlucky - some medics I know have had it 3 times now.>> will make any difference against the next wave of Covid which I reckon >> will peak in the UK in February (if previous cycles here are anything >> to go by). > > We are seeing a slight uptick, here, as the "winter visitors" arrive. > They're focused on *activities* -- eating out, socializing, etc. So, > stir the viral pot. Of course, our (large, local) healthcare industry > is always delighted to see more beds in service... dollars are dollars, > regardless of whether they were sourced locally or "imported" from other > parts of the country!What will make it rocket up in the UK is when the students all return home from university and spend time a Xmas parties in local pubs.>>> When will he expect to achieve "close (enough) to zero"? How >>> much social unrest and economic upheaval is he willing to >>> incur for "a little CLOSER to zero"? >> >> Apparently a great deal. They may even end up killing people on the >> streets "to save their lives" much like with Tiananmen square. >> >> Their police have already beaten up a BBC cameraman "to protect him >> from catching Covid" (sic). > > But he can't innoculate them, "with force"?Apparently not. I suspect they can in the major cities by making it incredibly difficult to do anything unless vaccinated - but in the rural backwaters where nobody important ever goes then it is another story.>>>>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing >>>>> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him? And, the >>>>> folks who support him? >>>>> >>>>> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are >>>>> no other effective alternatives available. My understanding >>>>> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the >>>>> vaccine is) are low, there. Why hasn't he mandated universal >>>>> vaccination? etc. (supply/distribution problems?) >>>> >>>> I recall one Chinese finance wonk opining that long Covid is going >>>> to be a serious long problem for Western economies. It's perhaps an >>>> overblown fear but seems to be one the Chinese leadership deeply >>>> harbors, also. >>> >>> The opposite now seems to be the case; The West is moving on and >>> China is still stuck in 2019 -- with no *end* in sight! >> >> It is weird but it is a bind of their own making. What worked to keep >> Covid under control and almost eliminate it at the outset doesn't work >> at all now against the far more infective Omicron strains. >> Unfortunately they refuse to alter their stated "Zero Covid" strategy. > > Which brings back the initial question. Is it hubris? Or, are there other > issues that will possibly/likely manifest that would be/look far worse? > > (What can look worse than beating up your own citizenry??)I think their citizens are habituated to it and their news is censored. They have even had to censor world cup crowd footage to avoid showing the football loving Chinese people mass gatherings with no masks on! I guess they can show Japanese grand sumo without problems since everyone in the audience there is still fully masked. The Japanese Emperor and his wife wore masks to the QEII funeral in accordance with Japanese laws about wearing masks in enclosed mass gatherings.> >>>> But they're in a pickle, now. Zero-Covid has been very effective at >>>> limiting death toll but since they have been lackluster about >>>> pushing vaccines (for a variety of reasons including that many >>>> Chinese citizens are as uneducated and vaccine-hesitant as >>>> Americans..) they can't just stop because there are so many >>>> particularly elderly virus-naive people just waiting to get hit. >>> >>> Yet, in an society as authoritarian as to be able to "lock down" >>> entire metropolitan areas "indefinitely" and mandate frequent >>> testing of the populace for the privilege of being able to go about >>> their daily lives, he can't *mandate* a vaccination? You can beat >>> protesters but can't innoculate them? >> >> Partly a problem of scale in such a huge country. Chinese New Year >> travel could spread the whole thing out of control if it goes ahead >> this year. > > And, of course, there won't be any viral spread from the protests... > <rolls eyes>There will but they will be mostly between healthy young adults who are not really at risk. Once you factor out the people with serious comorbidities the risk of Covid to those under 45 is really very low. (and an order of magnitude lower still once you are vaccinated) More male teenagers were saved from dying in RTA's during our lockdowns than were killed by Covid (including those with comorbidities). IOW life expectancy of young males went up due to not being free to wrap their car round a lamp post or in a head on crash -- Regards, Martin Brown
OT: China covid
Started by ●November 26, 2022
Reply by ●November 30, 20222022-11-30
Reply by ●November 30, 20222022-11-30
On 11/30/2022 2:39 AM, Martin Brown wrote:>> The fact that he *hasn't* fallen back to such a policy suggests he >> either is 100.0% convinced he's "got the correct approach" (despite >> evidence to the contrary) *or* that he realizes that vaccination isn't >> the answer, given their population density/working conditions. >> >> Another option might be his fear that if "big (bad) numbers" materialize, >> then he'll look like a third-world country, in terms of mortality and >> healthcare response. As if people judging him wouldn't be smart >> enough to factor their specific conditions into the assessment. > > One way he could be brought down is if the Chinese people start to see the sort > of suffering that happened in Italy at the outset of the original pandemic.I'm not necessarily advocating for his removal from power. Rather, for "something" that causes "someone" to adjust their strategy in the face of evidence.> They seem pretty close to boiling point now. The extent and severity of Chinese > lockdowns has been extraordinary.Yes, I've always chuckled at folks who complain about "lockdowns" in the US. The impact on *my* lifestyle, over the past few years, has been: - limited occupancy at stores (no longer in place) - reduced operating hours at some venues (public library being notable) - limited availability of some items for purchase (no longer a problem) - masks *required* in many places - a fair number of "jabs" that were previously just for TDAP or similar - I no longer "go in" to donate hours at the volunteer gigs I support (working from home, instead) No one has ever asked to "see my papers" or herded me back indoors if they "discovered" me on the street, etc. AFAICT, this is true of all of the people that *I* know, here.>>> The vaccines now can only really stop you getting very sick it offers only >>> limited protection against catching it. It remains to be seen if the bimodal >>> vaccine (which I have recently had) >> >> Good luck with that. I'm delaying my next "booster" in the hope of >> extending its efficacy "on the tail end" (as I suspect there won't >> be any/many more, after this) > > I have already had Covid and so I figure that this booster will see me through > the peak winter season with enough antibodies to resist it. I could be unlucky > - some medics I know have had it 3 times now.Yikes. We've been commenting that this has been the healthiest few years, for us, in a long time. No colds, etc. Allergies, OTOH, are an ever increasing problem as growing seasons extend. [We've still got *mosquitos* at the end of November!]>>> will make any difference against the next wave of Covid which I reckon will >>> peak in the UK in February (if previous cycles here are anything to go by). >> >> We are seeing a slight uptick, here, as the "winter visitors" arrive. >> They're focused on *activities* -- eating out, socializing, etc. So, >> stir the viral pot. Of course, our (large, local) healthcare industry >> is always delighted to see more beds in service... dollars are dollars, >> regardless of whether they were sourced locally or "imported" from other >> parts of the country! > > What will make it rocket up in the UK is when the students all return home from > university and spend time a Xmas parties in local pubs.Here, it is the local university (50K students) coupled with the seasonal influx of "winter visitors" who look to avoid the cold weather associated with their "home" locations.>>>> When will he expect to achieve "close (enough) to zero"? How >>>> much social unrest and economic upheaval is he willing to >>>> incur for "a little CLOSER to zero"? >>> >>> Apparently a great deal. They may even end up killing people on the streets >>> "to save their lives" much like with Tiananmen square. >>> >>> Their police have already beaten up a BBC cameraman "to protect him from >>> catching Covid" (sic). >> >> But he can't innoculate them, "with force"? > > Apparently not. I suspect they can in the major cities by making it incredibly > difficult to do anything unless vaccinated - but in the rural backwaters where > nobody important ever goes then it is another story.But I would assume the "local authorities" would not want to run afoul of Beijing and would take whatever steps were necessary to tamp down risky behavior. Also, I would imagine the lower density would make "spread" less severe (or, slow it down to an observable rate)>>>>> I recall one Chinese finance wonk opining that long Covid is going to be a >>>>> serious long problem for Western economies. It's perhaps an overblown fear >>>>> but seems to be one the Chinese leadership deeply harbors, also. >>>> >>>> The opposite now seems to be the case; The West is moving on and >>>> China is still stuck in 2019 -- with no *end* in sight! >>> >>> It is weird but it is a bind of their own making. What worked to keep Covid >>> under control and almost eliminate it at the outset doesn't work at all now >>> against the far more infective Omicron strains. Unfortunately they refuse to >>> alter their stated "Zero Covid" strategy. >> >> Which brings back the initial question. Is it hubris? Or, are there other >> issues that will possibly/likely manifest that would be/look far worse? >> >> (What can look worse than beating up your own citizenry??) > > I think their citizens are habituated to it and their news is censored. They > have even had to censor world cup crowd footage to avoid showing the football > loving Chinese people mass gatherings with no masks on!But, I assume he is also thinking about how the international community looks on China. If you want to be a "major player", you need to command respect and stability in the eyes of the rest of the world. How likely are investors to choose China (over some other east asian host) to base their NEW product manufacturing, if he doesn't seem to have his shit together?> I guess they can show Japanese grand sumo without problems since everyone in > the audience there is still fully masked. The Japanese Emperor and his wife > wore masks to the QEII funeral in accordance with Japanese laws about wearing > masks in enclosed mass gatherings. >> >>>>> But they're in a pickle, now. Zero-Covid has been very effective at >>>>> limiting death toll but since they have been lackluster about pushing >>>>> vaccines (for a variety of reasons including that many Chinese citizens >>>>> are as uneducated and vaccine-hesitant as Americans..) they can't just >>>>> stop because there are so many particularly elderly virus-naive people >>>>> just waiting to get hit. >>>> >>>> Yet, in an society as authoritarian as to be able to "lock down" >>>> entire metropolitan areas "indefinitely" and mandate frequent >>>> testing of the populace for the privilege of being able to go about >>>> their daily lives, he can't *mandate* a vaccination? You can beat >>>> protesters but can't innoculate them? >>> >>> Partly a problem of scale in such a huge country. Chinese New Year travel >>> could spread the whole thing out of control if it goes ahead this year. >> >> And, of course, there won't be any viral spread from the protests... >> <rolls eyes> > > There will but they will be mostly between healthy young adults who are not > really at risk. Once you factor out the people with serious comorbidities the > risk of Covid to those under 45 is really very low. > (and an order of magnitude lower still once you are vaccinated)That's the *mortality* risk. If folks still get sick and can't work *or* act as carriers, then their age isn't innoculating the population against the effects of the disease.> More male teenagers were saved from dying in RTA's during our lockdowns than > were killed by Covid (including those with comorbidities). IOW life expectancy > of young males went up due to not being free to wrap their car round a lamp > post or in a head on crashISTR drug overdoses (here) becoming increasingly problematic -- perhaps as boredom/depression led to increases in abuse? And, acts of (gun) violence as people vented their frustration on others.
Reply by ●November 30, 20222022-11-30
On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 11:15:11 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:> On 11/29/2022 8:32 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > >>> There is such a thing as racial response to vaccination. Some groups > >>> don't respond as well as others. > >> In this case though it seems fairly clear now that the Sinovac has a 70% > >> effectiveness against serious hospitalising Covid infections and death > >> whereas any of the mRNA or AZ/J&J viral vector vaccines are 90% effective. > >> They also have a really bad demographics problem in China where people > >> over the age of 80 do not believe in modern medicine. > > > > 70% effectiveness is actually outstandingly good for a conventional whole > > virus vaccine. The original U.S. target for COVID-19 vaccine approval was > > just 50%. Then the mRNA vaccine has this unprecedented effectiveness which > > seems too good to be true. Actually it is too good to be true because it > > fades significantly by six months to no better than the whole virus vaccine. > > Whole virus vaccines have a track record of inducing immunity for life, the > That's not entirely true. There are many "childhood illnesses" that can come > back and bite you, later in life, despite vaccination. Pertussis and varicella > (and *then* "shingles") are notably resilient. Ditto mumps and meningococcal > disease. Smallpox and polio, if at risk of exposure, also wane. Flu vaccines > wane before the end of the flu *season*!True immunity never wanes. Beyond a certain age, like 50, your immune system begins to fail you. The immunity is still there but you can't do much with it. In addition to old age, other conditions commonly present in old age also work to compromise the immune system, conditions like diabetes and internal organ dysfunction, especially the liver, damaged from previous disease or alcohol or substance abuse or long term use of certain medications, immunosuppressants for old age related disease like arthritis- the list is endless. Do you see how grossly oversimplified and unrealistic your viewpoint is now?> > It's all a numbers game; how quickly and strongly can your body mount a defense > against how large of an infection.Not likely to be quick and strong in old age. BUT quicker and stronger than being unvaccinated.> > mRNA do not. People always point to the flu vaccine, another whole virus > > vaccine, but there the effectiveness goes out the window with extremely high > > mutation rate of the virus. > > > > An additional complication with the death rate statistic is the people in > > China aren't going to get anywhere near the same medical care as people in > > the advanced countries, so the death rate will be significantly higher even > > if they used the adavanced vaccine technology. > > > >> There was a piece on BBC News about the bind that China finds itself in. > >> About half of the most vulnerable Chinese are not vaccinated at all! > >> > >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63786072 > >> > >> Basically they prefer tigers balls and rhino horn potions as a "cure". > >> > >> The big problem for them now is that Omicron has become so infective that > >> no plausible measures will prevent it from spreading quickly in the > >> community. If anyone could have done it Japan would but even there they > >> are having similar issues to the UK with Omicron spreading irrespective of > >> any counter measures (they are still all masked when indoors). > >> > >> UK might be reaching a point where the baseline level of 1 million people > >> a week with Covid finally starts to fall a bit. I suspect we will see a > >> sharp rise in Covid rates when university students come home for Xmas in a > >> couple of weeks time (as happened in previous years). > >>>> It's a whole virus vaccine, and relatively minor mutations let the let > >>>> the virus change it's shape enough to evade the antibodies it evokes. > >>> > >>> That's can be an asset of the whole virus vaccine because it also > >>> invokes antibody response against other capsid proteins that are > >>> conserved with the variants. The whole virus vaccine is a scatter gun, > >>> the mRNA vaccine is a sniper rifle. > >> In fact it isn't a particularly good vaccine as is shown by the fact that > >> even with two doses of Sinovac death rates are 3x higher than with either > >> mRNA or AZ/J&J& style vaccines. The problem here is that China does not > >> want to lose face and import doses of a foreign vaccine. > > > > The modern vaccines are a huge expense. > And, as folks aren't clammoring for them, anymore, (I think only 10M doses of > the most recent booster have been "claimed" -- for no cost) it is likely that > the manufacturers will rethink the effort they put into developing boosters > for new strains. > > ISTR north of 60M flu shots so far, this year. OTOH, only 10M (?) of the > latest covid boosters. > > Western governments talk up how tragic the death rates are, but the truth of > > the matter is they know the death rates are almost all among the infirm and > > they're relieved to be rid of them and the excess overhead they bring to the > > operating costs of the government. China is probably thinking the same > > thing. > Those affected, in China, can't *vote*... > >>>>>> Dunno what they're thinking. Chinese know China better than we do, > >>>>>> let them run the place. > >>>>> > >>>>> I suspect foreign investors will take heed of the inadequacy of > >>>>> their approach and "reward" them, justly. > >>>> Lock-downs don't help production. Neither do a lot of Covid-19 > >>>> infections. > >> The point is though that in the under 45's unless you have some serious > >> comorbidity you would be very unlucky to be killed by Covid whether you > >> are vaccinated or not. The breakdown in the UK shows that individuals > >> under 45 killed by Covid is about a hundred out of 11000 (1% of all Covid > >> deaths). See Deaths Involving Covid by Age graph here: > >> > >> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 > >> > >> The heat map of where has been hit hardest is also nearly perfectly > >> correlated with those areas which are the poorest, overcrowded and most > >> disadvantaged. IOW places where their health was already compromised. > > > > Their health was compromised because they don't care about taking care of > > themselves. There are people out there who make complete wrecks of > > themselves by the time they reach 30. > There are also a good many who don't have practical options to *do* > take care of themselves. There are many places where access to affordable > *good* food is scarce -- as is access to healthcare. And, you have to have > "spare time" to really take care of yourself -- even the "30 minutes of > exercise" needs 30 *free* minutes.
Reply by ●November 30, 20222022-11-30
On 11/30/2022 5:03 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:> On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 11:15:11 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >> On 11/29/2022 8:32 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>>> There is such a thing as racial response to vaccination. Some >>>>> groups don't respond as well as others. >>>> In this case though it seems fairly clear now that the Sinovac has a >>>> 70% effectiveness against serious hospitalising Covid infections and >>>> death whereas any of the mRNA or AZ/J&J viral vector vaccines are 90% >>>> effective. They also have a really bad demographics problem in China >>>> where people over the age of 80 do not believe in modern medicine. >>> >>> 70% effectiveness is actually outstandingly good for a conventional >>> whole virus vaccine. The original U.S. target for COVID-19 vaccine >>> approval was just 50%. Then the mRNA vaccine has this unprecedented >>> effectiveness which seems too good to be true. Actually it is too good >>> to be true because it fades significantly by six months to no better >>> than the whole virus vaccine. Whole virus vaccines have a track record >>> of inducing immunity for life, the >> That's not entirely true. There are many "childhood illnesses" that can >> come back and bite you, later in life, despite vaccination. Pertussis and >> varicella (and *then* "shingles") are notably resilient. Ditto mumps and >> meningococcal disease. Smallpox and polio, if at risk of exposure, also >> wane. Flu vaccines wane before the end of the flu *season*! > > True immunity never wanes. Beyond a certain age, like 50, your immune system > begins to fail you. The immunity is still there but you can't do much with > it. In addition to old age, other conditions commonly present in old age > also work to compromise the immune system, conditions like diabetes and > internal organ dysfunction, especially the liver, damaged from previous > disease or alcohol or substance abuse or long term use of certain > medications, immunosuppressants for old age related disease like arthritis- > the list is endless. Do you see how grossly oversimplified and unrealistic > your viewpoint is now?From <https://www.science.org/content/article/how-long-do-vaccines-last-surprising-answers-may-help-protect-people-longer>: "It's not just flu. Recent studies show vaccines for mumps, pertussis, meningococcal disease, and yellow fever also lose their effectiveness faster than official immunization recommendations suggest. Vaccines have ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ been a crucial public health tool for decades, so it may seem strange that their durability isn't well understood. But vaccines are approved and come to market years before it's clear how long protection lasts. Later, fading protection can go unnoticed because a vaccine in wide use has largely ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ eliminated transmission of the microbes it protects against, making "breakthrough" infections rare. Even if viruses or bacteria are still in circulation, people vaccinated against them will sometimes receive natural boosting of their immunity. And declining vaccine immunity is not an all-or-nothing phenomenon: A breakthrough infection often leads to much less severe symptoms of the disease." Do you see how ignorant/dated your understanding is?>> It's all a numbers game; how quickly and strongly can your body mount a >> defense against how large of an infection. > > Not likely to be quick and strong in old age. BUT quicker and stronger than > being unvaccinated. > > >>> mRNA do not. People always point to the flu vaccine, another whole >>> virus vaccine, but there the effectiveness goes out the window with >>> extremely high mutation rate of the virus. >>> >>> An additional complication with the death rate statistic is the people >>> in China aren't going to get anywhere near the same medical care as >>> people in the advanced countries, so the death rate will be >>> significantly higher even if they used the adavanced vaccine >>> technology. >>> >>>> There was a piece on BBC News about the bind that China finds itself >>>> in. About half of the most vulnerable Chinese are not vaccinated at >>>> all! >>>> >>>> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63786072 >>>> >>>> Basically they prefer tigers balls and rhino horn potions as a >>>> "cure". >>>> >>>> The big problem for them now is that Omicron has become so infective >>>> that no plausible measures will prevent it from spreading quickly in >>>> the community. If anyone could have done it Japan would but even there >>>> they are having similar issues to the UK with Omicron spreading >>>> irrespective of any counter measures (they are still all masked when >>>> indoors). >>>> >>>> UK might be reaching a point where the baseline level of 1 million >>>> people a week with Covid finally starts to fall a bit. I suspect we >>>> will see a sharp rise in Covid rates when university students come >>>> home for Xmas in a couple of weeks time (as happened in previous >>>> years). >>>>>> It's a whole virus vaccine, and relatively minor mutations let the >>>>>> let the virus change it's shape enough to evade the antibodies it >>>>>> evokes. >>>>> >>>>> That's can be an asset of the whole virus vaccine because it also >>>>> invokes antibody response against other capsid proteins that are >>>>> conserved with the variants. The whole virus vaccine is a scatter >>>>> gun, the mRNA vaccine is a sniper rifle. >>>> In fact it isn't a particularly good vaccine as is shown by the fact >>>> that even with two doses of Sinovac death rates are 3x higher than >>>> with either mRNA or AZ/J&J& style vaccines. The problem here is that >>>> China does not want to lose face and import doses of a foreign >>>> vaccine. >>> >>> The modern vaccines are a huge expense. >> And, as folks aren't clammoring for them, anymore, (I think only 10M doses >> of the most recent booster have been "claimed" -- for no cost) it is >> likely that the manufacturers will rethink the effort they put into >> developing boosters for new strains. >> >> ISTR north of 60M flu shots so far, this year. OTOH, only 10M (?) of the >> latest covid boosters. >>> Western governments talk up how tragic the death rates are, but the >>> truth of the matter is they know the death rates are almost all among >>> the infirm and they're relieved to be rid of them and the excess >>> overhead they bring to the operating costs of the government. China is >>> probably thinking the same thing. >> Those affected, in China, can't *vote*... >>>>>>>> Dunno what they're thinking. Chinese know China better than we >>>>>>>> do, let them run the place. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> I suspect foreign investors will take heed of the inadequacy of >>>>>>> their approach and "reward" them, justly. >>>>>> Lock-downs don't help production. Neither do a lot of Covid-19 >>>>>> infections. >>>> The point is though that in the under 45's unless you have some >>>> serious comorbidity you would be very unlucky to be killed by Covid >>>> whether you are vaccinated or not. The breakdown in the UK shows that >>>> individuals under 45 killed by Covid is about a hundred out of 11000 >>>> (1% of all Covid deaths). See Deaths Involving Covid by Age graph >>>> here: >>>> >>>> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643 >>>> >>>> The heat map of where has been hit hardest is also nearly perfectly >>>> correlated with those areas which are the poorest, overcrowded and >>>> most disadvantaged. IOW places where their health was already >>>> compromised. >>> >>> Their health was compromised because they don't care about taking care >>> of themselves. There are people out there who make complete wrecks of >>> themselves by the time they reach 30. >> There are also a good many who don't have practical options to *do* take >> care of themselves. There are many places where access to affordable >> *good* food is scarce -- as is access to healthcare. And, you have to >> have "spare time" to really take care of yourself -- even the "30 minutes >> of exercise" needs 30 *free* minutes.
Reply by ●November 30, 20222022-11-30
On Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:39:38 +0000, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote:>On 29/11/2022 13:13, Don Y wrote: >> On 11/29/2022 4:46 AM, Martin Brown wrote: >>> On 29/11/2022 06:45, Don Y wrote: >>>> On 11/28/2022 7:35 PM, bitrex wrote: >>>>> On 11/26/2022 4:05 PM, Don Y wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>> But he must see there is a (huge) cost to that approach. >>>>>> Even if no one can OPENLY criticize his policies, he has >>>>>> to know that they will *look* stupid to anyone who cares... >>>>>> including foreign investors. >>>>> >>>>> Conversely the Chinese leadership figures there was a huge cost in >>>>> lives to America's more ad hoc approach to pandemic control. A >>>>> million excess deaths over the past 2.5 years might have translated >>>>> to 25 million there, _also_ would have probably not been good optics >>>>> for a nation with the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward not >>>>> too far in the rearview.. >>>> >>>> Yes, but the death rate, in The West, has fallen -- vaccinations, >>>> viral mutations, etc. >>>> >>>> So, does he fear that the Chinese *won't* see a reduction in >>>> death rate?� Shitty vaccine?� Poor uptake?� Different mutations? >>> >>> A combination of a mediocre vaccine that is 3x less effective at >>> preventing deaths than any of the Western vaccines, coupled with poor >>> uptake in the most vulnerable elderly groups and they are now seeing >>> much more infectious Omicron style variants that are vaccine escapees. >> >> I can understand the NIH wrt the vaccine sourcing; heaven forbid trading >> stuffed teddy bears for life saving medicines/treatments! > >ITYM iPhones and other high tech consumer gear made in China. > >> But, I still don't understand why EVERYONE hasn't been vaccinated. > >China is an incredibly big country and spans everything from full first >world quality healthcare and living standards in the major cities to >third world poverty and superstition in the remote rural areas. I doubt >if there is any other country except India with the same problems as >China. India of course is a major vaccine manufacturer and has ended up >with doses they had to throw away fro time expired. > >> I guess this reflects my lack of understanding of Chinese society >> and the role gummit plays in it.� I'd *assumed* Xi had (effectively) >> limitless power directly and indirectly.� I.e., if he could keep >> you locked in your house, hotel, factory, etc. for long periods, >> then he could force you to be vaccinated. >> >> And, if "forcing" isn't culturally acceptable, then he could ENTICE >> you to do so by, for example, allowing you to leave your home and >> go to work, buy supplies, etc. iff vaccinated.� E.g., to get a driver's >> license in CO, you have to be fingerprinted.� You can *avoid* the >> fingerprinting -- if you are willing to live without the legal >> authority to operate a motor vehicle.� That's a pretty big carrot/stick! > >I don't understand it either. His power comes from his ability to >dominate the huge committee of subordinates that he heads up. If that >dominance should fail then he is toast (possibly quite literally). > >> The fact that he *hasn't* fallen back to such a policy suggests he >> either is 100.0% convinced he's "got the correct approach" (despite >> evidence to the contrary) *or* that he realizes that vaccination isn't >> the answer, given their population density/working conditions. >> >> Another option might be his fear that if "big (bad) numbers" materialize, >> then he'll look like a third-world country, in terms of mortality and >> healthcare response.� As if people judging him wouldn't be smart >> enough to factor their specific conditions into the assessment. > >One way he could be brought down is if the Chinese people start to see >the sort of suffering that happened in Italy at the outset of the >original pandemic. They seem pretty close to boiling point now. The >extent and severity of Chinese lockdowns has been extraordinary. >> >>> The vaccines now can only really stop you getting very sick it offers >>> only limited protection against catching it. It remains to be seen if >>> the bimodal vaccine (which I have recently had) >> >> Good luck with that.� I'm delaying my next "booster" in the hope of >> extending its efficacy "on the tail end" (as I suspect there won't >> be any/many more, after this) > >I have already had Covid and so I figure that this booster will see me >through the peak winter season with enough antibodies to resist it. I >could be unlucky - some medics I know have had it 3 times now. > >>> will make any difference against the next wave of Covid which I reckon >>> will peak in the UK in February (if previous cycles here are anything >>> to go by). >> >> We are seeing a slight uptick, here, as the "winter visitors" arrive. >> They're focused on *activities* -- eating out, socializing, etc.� So, >> stir the viral pot.� Of course, our (large, local) healthcare industry >> is always delighted to see more beds in service...� dollars are dollars, >> regardless of whether they were sourced locally or "imported" from other >> parts of the country! > >What will make it rocket up in the UK is when the students all return >home from university and spend time a Xmas parties in local pubs. > >>>> When will he expect to achieve "close (enough) to zero"?� How >>>> much social unrest and economic upheaval is he willing to >>>> incur for "a little CLOSER to zero"? >>> >>> Apparently a great deal. They may even end up killing people on the >>> streets "to save their lives" much like with Tiananmen square. >>> >>> Their police have already beaten up a BBC cameraman "to protect him >>> from catching Covid" (sic). >> >> But he can't innoculate them, "with force"? > >Apparently not. I suspect they can in the major cities by making it >incredibly difficult to do anything unless vaccinated - but in the rural >backwaters where nobody important ever goes then it is another story. > >>>>>> If foreign companies pull out of China (as a manufacturing >>>>>> center), is that going to be A Good Thing for him?� And, the >>>>>> folks who support him? >>>>>> >>>>>> I suspect he is committed to this approach because there are >>>>>> no other effective alternatives available.� My understanding >>>>>> is that vaccination rates (regardless of how effective the >>>>>> vaccine is) are low, there.� Why hasn't he mandated universal >>>>>> vaccination?� etc.� (supply/distribution problems?) >>>>> >>>>> I recall one Chinese finance wonk opining that long Covid is going >>>>> to be a serious long problem for Western economies. It's perhaps an >>>>> overblown fear but seems to be one the Chinese leadership deeply >>>>> harbors, also. >>>> >>>> The opposite now seems to be the case; The West is moving on and >>>> China is still stuck in 2019 -- with no *end* in sight! >>> >>> It is weird but it is a bind of their own making. What worked to keep >>> Covid under control and almost eliminate it at the outset doesn't work >>> at all now against the far more infective Omicron strains. >>> Unfortunately they refuse to alter their stated "Zero Covid" strategy. >> >> Which brings back the initial question.� Is it hubris?� Or, are there other >> issues that will possibly/likely manifest that would be/look far worse? >> >> (What can look worse than beating up your own citizenry??) > >I think their citizens are habituated to it and their news is censored. >They have even had to censor world cup crowd footage to avoid showing >the football loving Chinese people mass gatherings with no masks on! > >I guess they can show Japanese grand sumo without problems since >everyone in the audience there is still fully masked. The Japanese >Emperor and his wife wore masks to the QEII funeral in accordance with >Japanese laws about wearing masks in enclosed mass gatherings. >> >>>>> But they're in a pickle, now. Zero-Covid has been very effective at >>>>> limiting death toll but since they have been lackluster about >>>>> pushing vaccines (for a variety of reasons including that many >>>>> Chinese citizens are as uneducated and vaccine-hesitant as >>>>> Americans..) they can't just stop because there are so many >>>>> particularly elderly virus-naive people just waiting to get hit. >>>> >>>> Yet, in an society as authoritarian as to be able to "lock down" >>>> entire metropolitan areas "indefinitely" and mandate frequent >>>> testing of the populace for the privilege of being able to go about >>>> their daily lives, he can't *mandate* a vaccination?� You can beat >>>> protesters but can't innoculate them? >>> >>> Partly a problem of scale in such a huge country. Chinese New Year >>> travel could spread the whole thing out of control if it goes ahead >>> this year. >> >> And, of course, there won't be any viral spread from the protests... >> <rolls eyes> > >There will but they will be mostly between healthy young adults who are >not really at risk. Once you factor out the people with serious >comorbidities the risk of Covid to those under 45 is really very low. >(and an order of magnitude lower still once you are vaccinated) > >More male teenagers were saved from dying in RTA's during our lockdowns >than were killed by Covid (including those with comorbidities). IOW life >expectancy of young males went up due to not being free to wrap their >car round a lamp post or in a head on crashThe age effect of viruses is bizarre. The 1918 flu, covid, the baby thing going around now.
Reply by ●December 1, 20222022-12-01
On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 5:21:23 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:> On Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:39:38 +0000, Martin Brown <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > >On 29/11/2022 13:13, Don Y wrote: > >> On 11/29/2022 4:46 AM, Martin Brown wrote: > >>> On 29/11/2022 06:45, Don Y wrote: > >>>> On 11/28/2022 7:35 PM, bitrex wrote: > >>>>> On 11/26/2022 4:05 PM, Don Y wrote:<snip>> >More male teenagers were saved from dying in RTA's during our lockdowns > >than were killed by Covid (including those with comorbidities). IOW life > >expectancy of young males went up due to not being free to wrap their > >car round a lamp post or in a head on crash. > > The age effect of viruses is bizarre. The 1918 flu, covid, the baby thing going around now.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734171/ The age specific mortality for the 1918 Spanish flu did peak at a age 28, but this article blames this on "prior exposure to the Russian influenza pandemic in 1889–90." This is indeed bizarre, but these kinds of effects have shown up with other infectious diseases. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●December 1, 20222022-12-01
On 30/11/2022 18:21, John Larkin wrote:> On Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:39:38 +0000, Martin Brown > <'''newspam'''@nonad.co.uk> wrote: > >> On 29/11/2022 13:13, Don Y wrote:>>> And, of course, there won't be any viral spread from the protests... >>> <rolls eyes> >> >> There will but they will be mostly between healthy young adults who are >> not really at risk. Once you factor out the people with serious >> comorbidities the risk of Covid to those under 45 is really very low. >> (and an order of magnitude lower still once you are vaccinated) >> >> More male teenagers were saved from dying in RTA's during our lockdowns >> than were killed by Covid (including those with comorbidities). IOW life >> expectancy of young males went up due to not being free to wrap their >> car round a lamp post or in a head on crash > > The age effect of viruses is bizarre. The 1918 flu, covid, the baby > thing going around now.Not really. You only pay attention viral infections if they are serious enough to cause problems and hospitalisation. A high proportion of childhood sniffles like diseases are ancient coronaviruses or rhino viruses (aka the common cold). The 1918 flu was inadvertently selected for the most vicious and virulent strain by only sending people back from the front lines (on crowded troop trains) if they were far too sick to hold a rifle and shoot. That selection pressure ensured that the variants most effective at infecting men (and women) of fighting age got amplified rapidly. Covid is fairly classical as viral diseases go. It is to a remarkably good approximation equivalent to taking your annual risk of dying in any given year in a fortnight. Speigelhalter of Oxford university who is a risk specialist was the first to point this out. https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-19-represent/ Our vaccination strategy (and its defects in some regions) have selected Covid for the most infectious strain(s) possible - presently Omicron. It remains to be seen how it pans out. Previous pandemic strains have burnt out on a timescale of about 5 years so you might hope this one will end a bit sooner with all the modern firepower brought to bear against it. The baby thing going around now is exploiting a gap in the market created as a side effect of lockdown. Children not previously exposed to the viruses causing trouble due to the lockdowns are now catching it a bit later when their innate immune system isn't quite so good. There seems to be quite a narrow time window where catching some of the most common childhood diseases is merely annoying as opposed to dangerous. It is an interesting paradox that Covid can barely get a foothold on infecting children under 7 unless they are very unlucky. Plenty of evidence that they can remain uninfected or asymptomatic even in households where adults have got it. There is a lot of debate as to why... https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02423-8 Of course there are still a few unlucky ones who catch it and die. -- Regards, Martin Brown
Reply by ●December 1, 20222022-12-01
On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 7:36:56 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote:> On 11/30/2022 5:03 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > > On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 11:15:11 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: > >> On 11/29/2022 8:32 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > >>>>> There is such a thing as racial response to vaccination. Some > >>>>> groups don't respond as well as others. > >>>> In this case though it seems fairly clear now that the Sinovac has a > >>>> 70% effectiveness against serious hospitalising Covid infections and > >>>> death whereas any of the mRNA or AZ/J&J viral vector vaccines are 90% > >>>> effective. They also have a really bad demographics problem in China > >>>> where people over the age of 80 do not believe in modern medicine. > >>> > >>> 70% effectiveness is actually outstandingly good for a conventional > >>> whole virus vaccine. The original U.S. target for COVID-19 vaccine > >>> approval was just 50%. Then the mRNA vaccine has this unprecedented > >>> effectiveness which seems too good to be true. Actually it is too good > >>> to be true because it fades significantly by six months to no better > >>> than the whole virus vaccine. Whole virus vaccines have a track record > >>> of inducing immunity for life, the > >> That's not entirely true. There are many "childhood illnesses" that can > >> come back and bite you, later in life, despite vaccination. Pertussis and > >> varicella (and *then* "shingles") are notably resilient. Ditto mumps and > >> meningococcal disease. Smallpox and polio, if at risk of exposure, also > >> wane. Flu vaccines wane before the end of the flu *season*! > > > > True immunity never wanes. Beyond a certain age, like 50, your immune system > > begins to fail you. The immunity is still there but you can't do much with > > it. In addition to old age, other conditions commonly present in old age > > also work to compromise the immune system, conditions like diabetes and > > internal organ dysfunction, especially the liver, damaged from previous > > disease or alcohol or substance abuse or long term use of certain > > medications, immunosuppressants for old age related disease like arthritis- > > the list is endless. Do you see how grossly oversimplified and unrealistic > > your viewpoint is now? > From > <https://www.science.org/content/article/how-long-do-vaccines-last-surprising-answers-may-help-protect-people-longer>: > > "It's not just flu. Recent studies show vaccines for mumps, pertussis, > meningococcal disease, and yellow fever also lose their effectiveness > faster than official immunization recommendations suggest. Vaccines have > ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ > been a crucial public health tool for decades, so it may seem strange that > their durability isn't well understood. But vaccines are approved and > come to market years before it's clear how long protection lasts. Later, > fading protection can go unnoticed because a vaccine in wide use has largely > ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ > eliminated transmission of the microbes it protects against, making > "breakthrough" infections rare. Even if viruses or bacteria are still in > circulation, people vaccinated against them will sometimes receive natural > boosting of their immunity. And declining vaccine immunity is not an > all-or-nothing phenomenon: A breakthrough infection often leads to much less > severe symptoms of the disease." > > Do you see how ignorant/dated your understanding is?Author is a professional content provider. Did you miss the: "A breakthrough infection often leads to much less severe symptoms of the disease." That's not a coincidence, it's because of residual immunity from the original vaccination. "much less severe" means most people don't even know they have it. You can't immunize a fence post. If people allow their health to decline, develop chronic illness, abuse substances, or a bunch of other things ( even settling into an ultra sedentary existence is very damaging ), then don't expect your immunity to come through for you.
Reply by ●December 1, 20222022-12-01
On 12/1/2022 11:24 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:> On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 7:36:56 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >> On 11/30/2022 5:03 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>> On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 11:15:11 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: >>>> On 11/29/2022 8:32 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: >>>>>>> There is such a thing as racial response to vaccination. Some >>>>>>> groups don't respond as well as others. >>>>>> In this case though it seems fairly clear now that the Sinovac has >>>>>> a 70% effectiveness against serious hospitalising Covid infections >>>>>> and death whereas any of the mRNA or AZ/J&J viral vector vaccines >>>>>> are 90% effective. They also have a really bad demographics >>>>>> problem in China where people over the age of 80 do not believe in >>>>>> modern medicine. >>>>> >>>>> 70% effectiveness is actually outstandingly good for a conventional >>>>> whole virus vaccine. The original U.S. target for COVID-19 vaccine >>>>> approval was just 50%. Then the mRNA vaccine has this unprecedented >>>>> effectiveness which seems too good to be true. Actually it is too >>>>> good to be true because it fades significantly by six months to no >>>>> better than the whole virus vaccine. Whole virus vaccines have a >>>>> track record of inducing immunity for life, the >>>> That's not entirely true. There are many "childhood illnesses" that >>>> can come back and bite you, later in life, despite vaccination. >>>> Pertussis and varicella (and *then* "shingles") are notably resilient. >>>> Ditto mumps and meningococcal disease. Smallpox and polio, if at risk >>>> of exposure, also wane. Flu vaccines wane before the end of the flu >>>> *season*! >>> >>> True immunity never wanes. Beyond a certain age, like 50, your immune >>> system begins to fail you. The immunity is still there but you can't do >>> much with it. In addition to old age, other conditions commonly present >>> in old age also work to compromise the immune system, conditions like >>> diabetes and internal organ dysfunction, especially the liver, damaged >>> from previous disease or alcohol or substance abuse or long term use of >>> certain medications, immunosuppressants for old age related disease like >>> arthritis- the list is endless. Do you see how grossly oversimplified >>> and unrealistic your viewpoint is now? >> From >> <https://www.science.org/content/article/how-long-do-vaccines-last-surprising-answers-may-help-protect-people-longer>: >> >> >>"It's not just flu. Recent studies show vaccines for mumps, pertussis,>> meningococcal disease, and yellow fever also lose their effectiveness >> faster than official immunization recommendations suggest. Vaccines have >> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ been a crucial >> public health tool for decades, so it may seem strange that their >> durability isn't well understood. But vaccines are approved and come to >> market years before it's clear how long protection lasts. Later, fading >> protection can go unnoticed because a vaccine in wide use has largely >> ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ eliminated transmission of the >> microbes it protects against, making "breakthrough" infections rare. Even >> if viruses or bacteria are still in circulation, people vaccinated against >> them will sometimes receive natural boosting of their immunity. And >> declining vaccine immunity is not an all-or-nothing phenomenon: A >> breakthrough infection often leads to much less severe symptoms of the >> disease." >> >> Do you see how ignorant/dated your understanding is? > > Author is a professional content provider.Yes, so obviously everything he is REPORTING ON is false. Sort of like anonymous posters in electronics newsgroups with nothing to say about electronics?> Did you miss the: > > "A breakthrough infection often leads to much less severe symptoms of the > disease." > > That's not a coincidence, it's because of residual immunity from the > original vaccination.BECAUSE THE IMMUNITY *WANES*. Otherwise, you would expect the same sort of response as shortly after innoculation!> "much less severe" means most people don't even know they have it.And where did you come up with THAT definition?> You can't immunize a fence post. If people allow their health to decline, > develop chronic illness, abuse substances, or a bunch of other things ( even > settling into an ultra sedentary existence is very damaging ), then don't > expect your immunity to come through for you.Wow, you must really be pissed that the World is as imperfect as it is! I'm sure you never expect a doctor -- YOUR doctor -- to give less than 100% and NEVER BE WRONG. And, police to never beat suspects (innocent until proven guilty). And, spouses to be unfaithful. And, countries to wage wars... Not everything is the fault of the individual. I wonder how your attitude would change had you been born a black female? Obviously, you would blame yourself for your plight in life...
Reply by ●December 1, 20222022-12-01
On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:17:41 PM UTC+11, Don Y wrote:> On 12/1/2022 11:24 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > > On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 7:36:56 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: > >> On 11/30/2022 5:03 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote: > >>> On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 11:15:11 AM UTC-5, Don Y wrote: > >>>> On 11/29/2022 8:32 AM, Fred Bloggs wrote:<snip>> > That's not a coincidence, it's because of residual immunity from the > > original vaccination. > > BECAUSE THE IMMUNITY *WANES*. Otherwise, you would expect the same sort of response as shortly after innoculation!Antibody levels do fall. The immune system has a whole range of protective responses and other wane more slowly. Some don't wane at all. Some bugs evolve fast enough to get around existing immunities.> > "much less severe" means most people don't even know they have it. > > And where did you come up with THAT definition?About 30% of Covid-19 infections were asymptomatic - which is about as non-severe as you can get - even before there were any vaccines against it. <snip> -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
