OT: not a merry Christmas

On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> 
> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> 
> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying. 

The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment. Do you fool people even  own a pulse oximeter and thermometer?  Oh well, never mind about any of that, just burn an incense stick.

> 
> -- 
> Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 7:08:50 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 24/12/2021 23:34, Rick C wrote: 
> > On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 8:51:17 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown 
> > wrote: 
> >> On 24/12/2021 13:19, Don Y wrote: 
> >>> On 12/24/2021 4:22 AM, Martin Brown wrote: 
> >>>> I have news from Japan where the number of Covid cases is 
> >>>> "high" for them at 500/day (mostly centred around and on US 
> >>>> bases) and my friends say it is fairly safe there but boring. 
> >>>> They envy the UK's apparent freedom and having life as "normal" 
> >>>> (that is how it is reported on TV). 
> >>> 
> >>> I'm not sure *anyone* has got the "messaging" correct. 
> >>> 
> >>> The northern part of the US is apparently seeing a surge -- 
> >>> attributed to moving indoors with the colder weather. If that's 
> >>> the case, then explaining our increase infection rate would need 
> >>> another cause as there's no need to be indoors (when it's 25+C 
> >>> outdoors). The influz of winter visitors is likely to blame as 
> >>> is the lack of masks (amusing to see couples in the stores: she 
> >>> masked, he without! Does she really think she's protected if she 
> >>> shares a home/bed with him?) 
> >> What choice does she have? Anyway for the most part simple masks as 
> >> worn by the public protect the environment from them being infected 
> >> not the other way around (although a small benefit has been 
> >> shown). 
> >> 
> >> What puzzles me about the US stats is that CDC are claiming Omicron 
> >> is now at 90% of all cases in some Eastern states and 70% overall. 
> >> 
> >> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html 
> >> 
> >> 
> >> 
> This seems impossibly high to me - UK is seeing about 70% of omicron 
> >> cases at present and close to 90% in London where it has really got 
> >> a hold and we should be in advance of you. How did the US spread 
> >> Omicron so fast or are they being sloppy in the testing and 
> >> confusing a high level of residual Alpha with Omega (both are 
> >> S-gene dropouts). 
> > 
> > I don't get what you don't understand. By all accounts the Omicron 
> > variant spreads VERY rapidly. While the initial detections came a 
> > bit later in the US, the virus has spread widely in the same time 
> > frame as in the UK. So I would expect the infection ratios to be 
> > about the same.
> But in the UK the Omicron variant has really only got hold of London, 
> Glasgow and Edinburgh (and the Scots are doing a much better job of 
> containing it). London hospital admissions have doubled in the past 3 
> weeks due to rampant Omicron ~3% of Londoners have active Covid at the 
> moment according to the latest ONS survey! 

Not sure what the "But" part of that is.  What point are you trying to make?  This sounds very much like what is  happening in the US.  


> Omicron spreading to the rest of the UK only really started a month 
> later when university students went home for Xmas. It still hasn't shown 
> up in the hospital admission statistics outside of London (unlike last 
> year when Alpha took off before Xmas in regions with pubs still open).

I think you connecting it to any particular events is baseless and of no value.  It's not like there aren't thousands of people aren't traveling from London EVERY DAY!  With exponential increases, such additional inoculations have little impact because the disease has already spread to much larger numbers than the inoculation. 


> >> Their sequencing data shows about 12% (of what?) truly Omicron. 
> >> The reporting of data over there is incredibly confusing. UK 
> >> sequences a fairly high proportion of suspected Omicron (or rather 
> >> they did). 
> > 
> > I don't understand what you are saying here. What is 12%??? What 
> > does "truly Omicron" mean??? I didn't know there was any way of 
> > detecting variants other than by sequencing the virus.
> The PCR test uses three loci. Wild strain and Delta give clear hits on 
> all three, but Alpha and Omicron fail on the S-gene. They use this as an 
> indicator that full sequencing is required to confirm Omicron in the UK. 
> (now that Omicron is totally dominant the sequencing is redundant apart 
> from random samples to look for any further mutations gaining ground) 
> 
> Sloppy analysis will incorrectly allocate Alpha to Omicron unless a 
> confirmatory sequencing test is done.

So what were you saying about 12%???


> >>> At 3K cases per day (in a state of just 6M souls), its not hard 
> >>> to see our 1.3M cases eventually cover all residents! 
> >> That isn't too bad really. UK has been twice that level since July 
> >> and we are now headed for 5x your level of infection (maybe higher 
> >> still). 
> > 
> > You are talking total daily infection rate? I think the two 
> > countries are within a factor of two. Both are headed up very 
> > steeply.
> London has insanely high levels of mostly Omicron infection. 

You mean 12%? 


> The rest of the country will likely end up in the same position but 
> delayed by about 3 weeks or so. The rise in number of cases is 
> frighteningly fast (some sampling effects too since people are 
> deliberately not getting tested to avoid isolating for Xmas). The case 
> doubling time where Omicron is most rampant is about 2-3 days. 

Actually, in the initial infection period in 2020 we saw doubling times of 3 days.  The difference was no one was vaccinated and no one was wearing masks.  The best we were doing was distancing... sometimes.  


> I just don't see how it could spread quite so fast in America even 
> allowing for the tendency of some to take no precautions at all. It is a 
> big place.

What does size have to do with it???  That just means it can achieve higher total numbers.  The exponential factor is the same.  We have lots of travel here.  No state is an island (well, except for Hawaii).  Once inoculated, it will spread across the country very quickly and the inoculation continues in each of the travel hubs. 


> >> It is the nature of pandemics to burn out on a timescale of 3-5 
> >> years - by then most people have either had it and recovered or are 
> >> dead. 
> > 
> > We will see. The vaccine has the potential for ending it much 
> > sooner, but we need to get it to the rest of the world. New 
> > variants
> It has already been demonstrated that the Pfizer booster is waning to 
> 75% efficacy on a timescale of 3 months. We are all going to have to 
> catch it and recover on not within the next couple of years.

I think that is a false assumption.  Unfortunately the US is not homogeneous, so we have regions with vaccination rates of only 30%.  Those will end up as Omicron hotbeds.  The more highly vaccinated regions appear to be relaxing their restrictions allowing rapid growth of Omicron as well.  I really have no idea of what goes through people's minds that they think we can keep ramping up and down the restrictions according to our comfort level.  Hell, the CDC even recommended we not require masks!!!  WTF is wrong with those idiots???


> >>> There is an emphasis on at-home test kits (our libraries are 
> >>> giving them out, free of charge). But, no one stressing that the 
> >>> kit just gives you your *approximate* status -- at a single point 
> >>> in time! And, says nothing about "tomorrow", etc. 
> >> Problem with the quick home test lateral flow tests is that they 
> >> give false negatives too often to be helpful if used on people 
> >> without symptoms as a permission to do something risky. 
> >> 
> >> They were designed to test people with plausible symptoms where 
> >> they stand a much better chance of working but even then the gold 
> >> standard test can fail up to 20% of the time! Positive means danger 
> >> but a negative result does not mean safe - that is a big problem 
> >> with how they are now being used by the public (encouraged by the 
> >> politicians). 
> >>> It seems akin to publishing detailed pans for building in-home 
> >>> bomb shelters (cold war) and totally glossing over the fact that 
> >>> the effort expended will amount to naught! 
> >> Being seen to be doing something is part of it. 
> > 
> > Not really. Masking is far from perfect, but has real impact.
> Mostly in preventing people with the infection from spreading it.

Is that what you intended to say?  It sure comes up as obvious.  


> > Distancing is even more effective if properly done. Standing 6 feet 
> > apart in the skyway leading to an airplane is pointless really, 
> > especially when you consider you will end up on the plane surrounded 
> > by up to 8 people all just two feet away for some hours! Yet that's 
> > a situation where you will end up being arrested if you don't follow 
> > the rules.
> Omicron is so effective at airborne transmission I'm not convinced. 
> I can smell a vaper or smoker from 10m so I am pretty sure that any 
> virus they exhale would be there too.

I don't know why you think that.  Viruses are in droplets while smoke particles exist in sizes not too different from the virus, but not in droplets.  So the smoke will hang in the air for very long times while the droplets containing the coronavirus settle to the ground relatively quickly.  


> >> UK has different policies in England (crazy free for all), with 
> >> Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all being more sensible. 
> >> 
> >> It remains to be seen who if anyone has called it right. 
> > 
> > The main issue is this new variant seems to be so much more 
> > infectious. Australia was doing very well until the Delta variant 
> > hit. Now Omicron is really running away. I suppose it spreads so 
> > easily that track and trace may not be able to keep up with it. This 
> > really may not stop until each country actually reaches herd 
> > immunity! In the US that's probably is only another 50 million 
> > infections among the unvaccinated. So maybe half a million more 
> > deaths.
> Omicron appears to be a factor of two less dangerous than Delta which 
> puts it roughly on a par with the original wild strain and Alpha. 

That is not nearly as important as how rapidly it spreads.  Delta was proving difficult to prevent spreading.  Omicron appears much more difficult.  People who are not infected won't  show up in hospitals or death counts.  We could have stopped Delta.  Omicron is looking to be more difficult.  The good news is that at least in the US, the vaccination numbers are high enough that if we have another 20% or 30% infected, we may achieve herd immunity.  The bad news is that may result in another half a million deaths.  

It might also not work since the vaccines don't actually prevent you from getting infected, not completely.  Rather it reduces the severity of infection.  So the vaccinated may turn out to be a super-spreader population.  That's why we still need to impose restrictions and get this under control. 

-- 

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
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On Saturday, 25 December 2021 at 12:23:20 UTC, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 24/12/2021 20:35, Don Y wrote: 
> > On 12/24/2021 6:51 AM, Martin Brown wrote: 
> >> On 24/12/2021 13:19, Don Y wrote: 
> 
> >>> At 3K cases per day (in a state of just 6M souls), its not hard 
> >>> to see our 1.3M cases eventually cover all residents! 
> >> 
> >> That isn't too bad really. UK has been twice that level since July and 
> >> we are now headed for 5x your level of infection (maybe higher still). 
> > 
> > England has 10X the population.  Or, have you normalized per 
> > unit-population?
> Yes. We are at 120+k/day on a 60M population. It is likely even more 
> than that since some selfish people are deliberately not getting tested. 
> Many have deleted the contact tracing app from their phone.
> >> Problem with the quick home test lateral flow tests is that they give 
> >> false negatives too often to be helpful if used on people without 
> >> symptoms as a permission to do something risky. 
> > 
> > Test kits contain two tests -- suggested "per individual".  So, you 
> > could, theoretically, test yourself earlier and then later (closer to 
> > your scheduled event).  But, it still tells you very little about 
> > your risk to others (and practically NOTHING about others' risks 
> > to *you*!) 
> > 
> > As the approach was hastily thrown together, there is no systematic 
> > data collection involved.  Fill out a form, get a test kit.  No 
> > check as to the validity (or uniqueness) of your information.  And, 
> > if it is suspect, then how can the gummit drive the collection from 
> > THEIR end (you are expected to self-report your results).
> UK ones have a unique QR code and you are supposed to register the 
> result of any free tests done with the NHS central database. A fair 
> proportion of people do not bother, but if you want a Covid pass to 
> attend some mass event or nightclub then you need to do it. 
> 
> This may be helping a bit in the cities. The swivel eyed loons in the 
> Tory party tried to vote this measure down last week (and failed).
> >> They were designed to test people with plausible symptoms where they 
> >> stand a much better chance of working but even then the gold standard 
> >> test can fail up to 20% of the time! Positive means danger but a 
> >> negative result does not mean safe - that is a big problem with how 
> >> they are now being used by the public (encouraged by the politicians). 
> > 
> > In our case, we put the test kits on a shelf as a hook to clue us 
> > in on any *suspected* exposure.  Having to engage with the healthcare 
> > system when you *think* you may have been exposed/develop symptoms 
> > is likely too late for any low cost/risk remedy.
> Almost everyone I know who has had it recovered OK after 2-3 weeks. 
> Apart from one unlucky individual who has permanent lung scarring and 
> other organ damage and is still struggling a 18 months on.
> > We've chatted with our providers as to our own states of health 
> > and risk factors and have put in place mechanisms to, hopefully, 
> > jumpstart a response to a possible infection before it takes 
> > hold (e.g., laying in medications in anticipation of needing 
> > them) -- and before you can get an appointment to SEE the provider! 
> 
> >>> It seems akin to publishing detailed pans for building in-home 
> >>> bomb shelters (cold war) and totally glossing over the fact that 
> >>> the effort expended will amount to naught! 
> >> 
> >> Being seen to be doing something is part of it. 
> > 
> > Of course!  By the same token, folks queuing to get tested 
> > gives them some peace of mind that they've "done something"... 
> > even if what they've done is effectively meaningless.
> One of the queues for being mass tested actually spread the disease in 
> Liverpool earlier in the pandemic. Two medic friends got it that way!
> > E.g., the bomb shelter analogy. 
> > 
> >> UK has different policies in England (crazy free for all), with 
> >> Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all being more sensible. 
> >> 
> >> It remains to be seen who if anyone has called it right. 
> > 
> > Reporting, here, downplays the extent of the problem.  If 
> > you simply look at the numbers (and talk to hospital staff), 
> > you'd have far more cause for concern.
> Where I am the hospitals are fine but in London they really are losing 
> it as demonstrated by various A list celebrities who should be fronting 
> TV shows today having to self isolate with Covid.
> > 
> > [SWMBO worked for a VP at one of the larger local hospitals so 
> > has many friends/contacts with The Inside Dope.  Add to that, 
> > friends and neighbors who are part of that industry and 
> > what you hear is considerably more alarming than how it 
> > is being reported -- likely because advertisers don't 
> > want to spook potential customers!  :-/ ] 
> > 
> > My concern isn't the immediacy of the problem (though I 
> > worry about having to be hospitalized for some OTHER 
> > need and finding beds full of covidiots).  Rather, I 
> > am concerned with what we'll discover years down the road 
> > regarding long-term damage to vital organs... and possible 
> > health/quality of life consequences (evident only after 
> > you've been deprived of a chance to DO something about it!)
> It seems to be pot luck whether you have complications or not. Being 
> poor and malnourished seems quite strongly correlated with bad Covid 
> outcomes in the UK but that could be due to social factors. They tend to 
> be in jobs where there is no prospect of working from home.
> > Or, we'll discover that folks are reluctant to enter that field 
> > having seen/heard horror stories of the conditions those 
> > providers faced.  What do you do when there aren't enough doctors 
> > and nurses to address the population?  (Import more Pakistani doctors?)
> UK may reach that stage soon in central London but for the moment they 
> can export their sickest patients to other cities medical facilities. 
> Where it gets very problematic is when too many medics have also caught 
> the disease and the disease is widespread across the country. 
> 
> We might get away with it if London has largely recovered again before 
> the other major cities suffer catastrophic health service collapse. 
> 
> -- 
> Regards, 
> Martin Brown

The time course in different areas can be followed here:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases
In some parts of London the infection rate is astonishingly high.
For example in "Acre Lane" 5.6% of the population caught covid in the 
7-day period ending 6 days ago.  The numbers will almost certainly
be even higher now.
It really does feel as if it is just a matter of time before everyone gets
infected, regardless of how much care is taken.  It is everywhere.
John

On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 9:58:11 AM UTC-5, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> > After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> > 
> > One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> > 
> > Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying.
> The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment. Do you fool people even own a pulse oximeter and thermometer? Oh well, never mind about any of that, just burn an incense stick. 

I think that's pretty much BS.  Do you think my 95 yo friend is unlikely to die if he catches it?  

This variant seems like it is going to run the infection numbers up bigly.  The US has a very steep spike starting and only a few states are showing it so far.  Once all 50 kick in we are probably going to see well over 300k new infections per day.  Heck, we already saw nearly 200,000 yesterday.  We will see very small numbers because of the holiday weekend, then once we are past that the numbers will probably hit 300,000.  After the new years we may see as high as 500,000 new infections per day.  By that point you have to believe the prophylactic measures will be restored to (nearly) every state and the numbers will start a slow drop.  That's the pattern in the US, a steep climb, a slow recognition of the severity of the situation, then finally a drop from the peak, but often not to the previous lower numbers.  The only time we've managed to reach the low numbers of the summer of 2020 was in the summer of 2021 only to see the pattern repeat.  Heck, even the global numbers are starting to take off. 

This will be a new peak like we haven't seen before and many, many people will die.  We can hope I am wrong and the reports of lower severity are not exaggerated.  At some point, I expect the larger infection numbers will overtake the lower severity and the death counts will rise significantly. 

-- 

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 3:10:28 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 9:58:11 AM UTC-5, Fred Bloggs wrote: 
> > On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote: 
> > > After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> > > 
> > > One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> > > 
> > > Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying. 
> > The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment. Do you fool people even own a pulse oximeter and thermometer? Oh well, never mind about any of that, just burn an incense stick.
> I think that's pretty much BS. Do you think my 95 yo friend is unlikely to die if he catches it? 
> 
> This variant seems like it is going to run the infection numbers up bigly. The US has a very steep spike starting and only a few states are showing it so far. Once all 50 kick in we are probably going to see well over 300k new infections per day. Heck, we already saw nearly 200,000 yesterday. We will see very small numbers because of the holiday weekend, then once we are past that the numbers will probably hit 300,000. After the new years we may see as high as 500,000 new infections per day. By that point you have to believe the prophylactic measures will be restored to (nearly) every state and the numbers will start a slow drop. That's the pattern in the US, a steep climb, a slow recognition of the severity of the situation, then finally a drop from the peak, but often not to the previous lower numbers. The only time we've managed to reach the low numbers of the summer of 2020 was in the summer of 2021 only to see the pattern repeat. Heck, even the global numbers are starting to take off. 
> 
> This will be a new peak like we haven't seen before and many, many people will die. We can hope I am wrong and the reports of lower severity are not exaggerated. At some point, I expect the larger infection numbers will overtake the lower severity and the death counts will rise significantly. 

I don't care what you think, you're an ignorant moron.

Go take your park bench musings to some other NG.

> 
> -- 
> 
> Rick C. 
> 
> +- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
> +- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On 25/12/2021 14:58, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5,
> bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled
>> because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a
>> Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year
>> would be worse.
>> 
>> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so
>> ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and
>> should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed
>> to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with
>> symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and
>> his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared.
>> 
>> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but
>> they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying.
> 
> The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the
> infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment. Do

Not true. A small proportion of individuals seem predisposed to have 
nasty complications with Covid. They are closing in on several genes 
that seem to be implicated in the most extreme immune over reaction.

Risk doubles with every 8 years older you are.

It remains a useful heuristic that catching Covid is approximately like 
taking your entire annual risk of dying from any cause in a fortnight. 
That was before the vaccines though and now it is scaled back a bit.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

> you fool people even  own a pulse oximeter and thermometer?  Oh well,
> never mind about any of that, just burn an incense stick.

The thing you have to be aware of is that if you are going into hypoxia 
for whatever reason you are blissfully unaware that there is a problem. 
Someone else has to notice for you. Silent hypoxia is a real problem 
with Covid with some people presenting at A&E too late to be helped.

And worse initial hospital triage by doing a quick pulse oximeter test 
and sending some people home with instructions to take paracetamol when 
they should really have been admitted immediately.

A pulse oximeter might work provided there is someone else to read it 
for you *and* you are fair skinned. One of the reasons for poorer 
outcomes for people of colour is that medical pulse oximeters misread 
their blood oxygenation levels as higher than they really are. They were 
insufficiently tested on other than fair skin. BMJ article on the bias:

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4926/rr-0

-- 
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 25/12/2021 17:38, Rick C wrote:
> On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 7:08:50 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown
> wrote:
>> On 24/12/2021 23:34, Rick C wrote:
>>> On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 8:51:17 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown

>>>> What puzzles me about the US stats is that CDC are claiming
>>>> Omicron is now at 90% of all cases in some Eastern states and
>>>> 70% overall.
>>>> 
>>>> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html
>>>>
>>
>>>> 
This seems impossibly high to me - UK is seeing about 70% of omicron
>>>> cases at present and close to 90% in London where it has really
>>>> got a hold and we should be in advance of you. How did the US
>>>> spread Omicron so fast or are they being sloppy in the testing
>>>> and confusing a high level of residual Alpha with Omega (both
>>>> are S-gene dropouts).
>>> 
>>> I don't get what you don't understand. By all accounts the
>>> Omicron variant spreads VERY rapidly. While the initial
>>> detections came a bit later in the US, the virus has spread
>>> widely in the same time frame as in the UK. So I would expect the
>>> infection ratios to be about the same.

>> But in the UK the Omicron variant has really only got hold of
>> London, Glasgow and Edinburgh (and the Scots are doing a much
>> better job of containing it). London hospital admissions have
>> doubled in the past 3 weeks due to rampant Omicron ~3% of Londoners
>> have active Covid at the moment according to the latest ONS
>> survey!
> 
> Not sure what the "But" part of that is.  What point are you trying
> to make?  This sounds very much like what is  happening in the US.

Omicron's exponential growth has barely got started in the USA yet.

Looking at the world in data graphs UK started to rise from 1 Dec,
France from 8 Dec and USA from 15 Dec. Look at how steep UK and France
are now - USA will be like that in another fortnight. The Netherlands
has already locked down and that seems to be working for them.

<https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~NLD~FRA~USA>

Whatever baseline level of infection that Delta can support in your 
environment it looks like Omicron can easily double or triple it. It is 
still too early to know when the curve will flatten but you can be sure 
the UK will be the first one to find this out (the hard way).
> 
>> Omicron spreading to the rest of the UK only really started a
>> month later when university students went home for Xmas. It still
>> hasn't shown up in the hospital admission statistics outside of
>> London (unlike last year when Alpha took off before Xmas in regions
>> with pubs still open).
> 
> I think you connecting it to any particular events is baseless and of
> no value.  It's not like there aren't thousands of people aren't
> traveling from London EVERY DAY!  With exponential increases, such
> additional inoculations have little impact because the disease has
> already spread to much larger numbers than the inoculation.

It is one of the key mechanisms that spread the virus far and wide. Up 
until the universities broke up there were just 3 very hot cities that 
had endemic Omicron. Now almost everywhere is seeded with it.

>>>> Their sequencing data shows about 12% (of what?) truly
>>>> Omicron. The reporting of data over there is incredibly
>>>> confusing. UK sequences a fairly high proportion of suspected
>>>> Omicron (or rather they did).
>>> 
>>> I don't understand what you are saying here. What is 12%??? What 
>>> does "truly Omicron" mean??? I didn't know there was any way of 
>>> detecting variants other than by sequencing the virus.
>> The PCR test uses three loci. Wild strain and Delta give clear hits
>> on all three, but Alpha and Omicron fail on the S-gene. They use
>> this as an indicator that full sequencing is required to confirm
>> Omicron in the UK. (now that Omicron is totally dominant the
>> sequencing is redundant apart from random samples to look for any
>> further mutations gaining ground)
>> 
>> Sloppy analysis will incorrectly allocate Alpha to Omicron unless
>> a confirmatory sequencing test is done.
> 
> So what were you saying about 12%???

US sequencing appears to show only 12% of whatever subset of PCR tests 
they are testing as being real Omicron. It is not possible to know from 
the way they publish it whether those are random tests of the entire PCR 
positives or selected tests of those where there is an S-gene fail.

>>>>> At 3K cases per day (in a state of just 6M souls), its not
>>>>> hard to see our 1.3M cases eventually cover all residents!
>>>> That isn't too bad really. UK has been twice that level since
>>>> July and we are now headed for 5x your level of infection
>>>> (maybe higher still).
>>> 
>>> You are talking total daily infection rate? I think the two 
>>> countries are within a factor of two. Both are headed up very 
>>> steeply.
>> London has insanely high levels of mostly Omicron infection.
> 
> You mean 12%?

Peak value at the moment is reckoned to be 5% or 1:20 with an active 
Covid infection in some parts of London.
>> The rest of the country will likely end up in the same position
>> but delayed by about 3 weeks or so. The rise in number of cases is 
>> frighteningly fast (some sampling effects too since people are 
>> deliberately not getting tested to avoid isolating for Xmas). The
>> case doubling time where Omicron is most rampant is about 2-3
>> days.
> 
> Actually, in the initial infection period in 2020 we saw doubling
> times of 3 days.  The difference was no one was vaccinated and no one
> was wearing masks.  The best we were doing was distancing...
> sometimes.

This variant is way more infectious than anything that went before. It 
might just possibly be a little less harmful but I'm not convinced that 
isn't the vaccine preventing serious illness in the majority who are now 
vaccinated.

>> I just don't see how it could spread quite so fast in America even 
>> allowing for the tendency of some to take no precautions at all. It
>> is a big place.
> 
> What does size have to do with it???  That just means it can achieve
> higher total numbers.  The exponential factor is the same.  We have
> lots of travel here.  No state is an island (well, except for
> Hawaii).  Once inoculated, it will spread across the country very
> quickly and the inoculation continues in each of the travel hubs.

The shape of the curve tells you all you need to know. It has not been 
active for long enough in the USA to really be as high as is claimed.

>>>> It is the nature of pandemics to burn out on a timescale of
>>>> 3-5 years - by then most people have either had it and
>>>> recovered or are dead.
>>> 
>>> We will see. The vaccine has the potential for ending it much 
>>> sooner, but we need to get it to the rest of the world. New 
>>> variants
>> It has already been demonstrated that the Pfizer booster is waning
>> to 75% efficacy on a timescale of 3 months. We are all going to
>> have to catch it and recover on not within the next couple of
>> years.
> 
> I think that is a false assumption.  Unfortunately the US is not
> homogeneous, so we have regions with vaccination rates of only 30%.
> Those will end up as Omicron hotbeds.  The more highly vaccinated
> regions appear to be relaxing their restrictions allowing rapid
> growth of Omicron as well.  I really have no idea of what goes
> through people's minds that they think we can keep ramping up and
> down the restrictions according to our comfort level.  Hell, the CDC
> even recommended we not require masks!!!  WTF is wrong with those
> idiots???

Double vaccination does nothing at all to prevent you from catching the 
Omicron variant. The booster jab Pfizer/Moderna is reckoned to cut the 
risk of catching it by a factor of 4 for around 3 months but then wanes 
away just like all immunity to coronaviruses tends to do.
> 
> 
>>>>> There is an emphasis on at-home test kits (our libraries are 
>>>>> giving them out, free of charge). But, no one stressing that
>>>>> the kit just gives you your *approximate* status -- at a
>>>>> single point in time! And, says nothing about "tomorrow",
>>>>> etc.
>>>> Problem with the quick home test lateral flow tests is that
>>>> they give false negatives too often to be helpful if used on
>>>> people without symptoms as a permission to do something risky.
>>>> 
>>>> They were designed to test people with plausible symptoms
>>>> where they stand a much better chance of working but even then
>>>> the gold standard test can fail up to 20% of the time! Positive
>>>> means danger but a negative result does not mean safe - that is
>>>> a big problem with how they are now being used by the public
>>>> (encouraged by the politicians).
>>>>> It seems akin to publishing detailed pans for building
>>>>> in-home bomb shelters (cold war) and totally glossing over
>>>>> the fact that the effort expended will amount to naught!
>>>> Being seen to be doing something is part of it.
>>> 
>>> Not really. Masking is far from perfect, but has real impact.

>> Mostly in preventing people with the infection from spreading it.
> 
> Is that what you intended to say?  It sure comes up as obvious.

Most people think that the mask is protecting them. Unless it is a 
properly fitted airtight seal filtered system it doesn't do much. It 
might be worth a factor of two or so on a good day.

>>> Distancing is even more effective if properly done. Standing 6
>>> feet apart in the skyway leading to an airplane is pointless
>>> really, especially when you consider you will end up on the plane
>>> surrounded by up to 8 people all just two feet away for some
>>> hours! Yet that's a situation where you will end up being
>>> arrested if you don't follow the rules.
>> Omicron is so effective at airborne transmission I'm not
>> convinced. I can smell a vaper or smoker from 10m so I am pretty
>> sure that any virus they exhale would be there too.
> 
> I don't know why you think that.  Viruses are in droplets while smoke
> particles exist in sizes not too different from the virus, but not in
> droplets.  So the smoke will hang in the air for very long times
> while the droplets containing the coronavirus settle to the ground
> relatively quickly.

The aerosol particles causing all the trouble stay airborne for plenty 
of time.
That is a big problem in recirculating air-conditioned buildings.

Aircraft have pretty good in flight air filtration so it might not be so 
bad there. More of a problem are your nearest neighbours on the flight.

>>>> UK has different policies in England (crazy free for all),
>>>> with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all being more
>>>> sensible.
>>>> 
>>>> It remains to be seen who if anyone has called it right.
>>> 
>>> The main issue is this new variant seems to be so much more 
>>> infectious. Australia was doing very well until the Delta
>>> variant hit. Now Omicron is really running away. I suppose it
>>> spreads so easily that track and trace may not be able to keep up
>>> with it. This really may not stop until each country actually
>>> reaches herd immunity! In the US that's probably is only another
>>> 50 million infections among the unvaccinated. So maybe half a
>>> million more deaths.
>> Omicron appears to be a factor of two less dangerous than Delta
>> which puts it roughly on a par with the original wild strain and
>> Alpha.
> 
> That is not nearly as important as how rapidly it spreads.  Delta was
> proving difficult to prevent spreading.  Omicron appears much more
> difficult.  People who are not infected won't  show up in hospitals
> or death counts.  We could have stopped Delta.  Omicron is looking to
> be more difficult.  The good news is that at least in the US, the
> vaccination numbers are high enough that if we have another 20% or
> 30% infected, we may achieve herd immunity.  The bad news is that may
> result in another half a million deaths.

I'm not convinced either of Delta or Omicron could have been stopped in 
a western democracy. The Netherlands is making the best fist of it so 
far but it remains unclear whether their strategy or the UK's is best.
> 
> It might also not work since the vaccines don't actually prevent you
> from getting infected, not completely.  Rather it reduces the
> severity of infection.  So the vaccinated may turn out to be a
> super-spreader population.  That's why we still need to impose
> restrictions and get this under control.

Don't think that I don't agree with you that we need additional 
restrictions to try and slow omicron down - that is what almost all 
scientists are saying (and have been for nearly a month). However, 
scientists advise, ministers decide and then scientists get the blame.

It is possible the UK will lock down eventually but The Boris is so 
enfeebled by his rebellious swivel eyed loons on the back benches that 
it could cost him his job as Prime Minister. They view everything as an 
infringement on our civil liberties to spread infection far and wide.

Until very very recently the Tories all refused to wear masks in 
parliament whereas the opposition and government employees did.

-- 
Regards,
Martin Brown

søndag den 26. december 2021 kl. 16.01.50 UTC+1 skrev Martin Brown:
> On 25/12/2021 17:38, Rick C wrote: 
> > On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 7:08:50 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown 
> > wrote: 
> >> On 24/12/2021 23:34, Rick C wrote: 
> >>> On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 8:51:17 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown
> >>>> What puzzles me about the US stats is that CDC are claiming 
> >>>> Omicron is now at 90% of all cases in some Eastern states and 
> >>>> 70% overall. 
> >>>> 
> >>>> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html 
> >>>> 
> >> 
> >>>> 
> This seems impossibly high to me - UK is seeing about 70% of omicron 
> >>>> cases at present and close to 90% in London where it has really 
> >>>> got a hold and we should be in advance of you. How did the US 
> >>>> spread Omicron so fast or are they being sloppy in the testing 
> >>>> and confusing a high level of residual Alpha with Omega (both 
> >>>> are S-gene dropouts). 
> >>> 
> >>> I don't get what you don't understand. By all accounts the 
> >>> Omicron variant spreads VERY rapidly. While the initial 
> >>> detections came a bit later in the US, the virus has spread 
> >>> widely in the same time frame as in the UK. So I would expect the 
> >>> infection ratios to be about the same. 
> 
> >> But in the UK the Omicron variant has really only got hold of 
> >> London, Glasgow and Edinburgh (and the Scots are doing a much 
> >> better job of containing it). London hospital admissions have 
> >> doubled in the past 3 weeks due to rampant Omicron ~3% of Londoners 
> >> have active Covid at the moment according to the latest ONS 
> >> survey! 
> > 
> > Not sure what the "But" part of that is. What point are you trying 
> > to make? This sounds very much like what is happening in the US.
> Omicron's exponential growth has barely got started in the USA yet. 
> 
> Looking at the world in data graphs UK started to rise from 1 Dec, 
> France from 8 Dec and USA from 15 Dec. Look at how steep UK and France 
> are now - USA will be like that in another fortnight. The Netherlands 
> has already locked down and that seems to be working for them. 
> 
> <https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~NLD~FRA~USA> 
> 
> Whatever baseline level of infection that Delta can support in your 
> environment it looks like Omicron can easily double or triple it. It is 
> still too early to know when the curve will flatten but you can be sure 
> the UK will be the first one to find this out (the hard way).
> > 
> >> Omicron spreading to the rest of the UK only really started a 
> >> month later when university students went home for Xmas. It still 
> >> hasn't shown up in the hospital admission statistics outside of 
> >> London (unlike last year when Alpha took off before Xmas in regions 
> >> with pubs still open). 
> > 
> > I think you connecting it to any particular events is baseless and of 
> > no value. It's not like there aren't thousands of people aren't 
> > traveling from London EVERY DAY! With exponential increases, such 
> > additional inoculations have little impact because the disease has 
> > already spread to much larger numbers than the inoculation.
> It is one of the key mechanisms that spread the virus far and wide. Up 
> until the universities broke up there were just 3 very hot cities that 
> had endemic Omicron. Now almost everywhere is seeded with it.
> >>>> Their sequencing data shows about 12% (of what?) truly 
> >>>> Omicron. The reporting of data over there is incredibly 
> >>>> confusing. UK sequences a fairly high proportion of suspected 
> >>>> Omicron (or rather they did). 
> >>> 
> >>> I don't understand what you are saying here. What is 12%??? What 
> >>> does "truly Omicron" mean??? I didn't know there was any way of 
> >>> detecting variants other than by sequencing the virus. 
> >> The PCR test uses three loci. Wild strain and Delta give clear hits 
> >> on all three, but Alpha and Omicron fail on the S-gene. They use 
> >> this as an indicator that full sequencing is required to confirm 
> >> Omicron in the UK. (now that Omicron is totally dominant the 
> >> sequencing is redundant apart from random samples to look for any 
> >> further mutations gaining ground) 
> >> 
> >> Sloppy analysis will incorrectly allocate Alpha to Omicron unless 
> >> a confirmatory sequencing test is done. 
> > 
> > So what were you saying about 12%???
> US sequencing appears to show only 12% of whatever subset of PCR tests 
> they are testing as being real Omicron. It is not possible to know from 
> the way they publish it whether those are random tests of the entire PCR 
> positives or selected tests of those where there is an S-gene fail.
> >>>>> At 3K cases per day (in a state of just 6M souls), its not 
> >>>>> hard to see our 1.3M cases eventually cover all residents! 
> >>>> That isn't too bad really. UK has been twice that level since 
> >>>> July and we are now headed for 5x your level of infection 
> >>>> (maybe higher still). 
> >>> 
> >>> You are talking total daily infection rate? I think the two 
> >>> countries are within a factor of two. Both are headed up very 
> >>> steeply. 
> >> London has insanely high levels of mostly Omicron infection. 
> > 
> > You mean 12%?
> Peak value at the moment is reckoned to be 5% or 1:20 with an active 
> Covid infection in some parts of London.
> >> The rest of the country will likely end up in the same position 
> >> but delayed by about 3 weeks or so. The rise in number of cases is 
> >> frighteningly fast (some sampling effects too since people are 
> >> deliberately not getting tested to avoid isolating for Xmas). The 
> >> case doubling time where Omicron is most rampant is about 2-3 
> >> days. 
> > 
> > Actually, in the initial infection period in 2020 we saw doubling 
> > times of 3 days. The difference was no one was vaccinated and no one 
> > was wearing masks. The best we were doing was distancing... 
> > sometimes.
> This variant is way more infectious than anything that went before. It 
> might just possibly be a little less harmful but I'm not convinced that 
> isn't the vaccine preventing serious illness in the majority who are now 
> vaccinated.
> >> I just don't see how it could spread quite so fast in America even 
> >> allowing for the tendency of some to take no precautions at all. It 
> >> is a big place. 
> > 
> > What does size have to do with it??? That just means it can achieve 
> > higher total numbers. The exponential factor is the same. We have 
> > lots of travel here. No state is an island (well, except for 
> > Hawaii). Once inoculated, it will spread across the country very 
> > quickly and the inoculation continues in each of the travel hubs.
> The shape of the curve tells you all you need to know. It has not been 
> active for long enough in the USA to really be as high as is claimed.
> >>>> It is the nature of pandemics to burn out on a timescale of 
> >>>> 3-5 years - by then most people have either had it and 
> >>>> recovered or are dead. 
> >>> 
> >>> We will see. The vaccine has the potential for ending it much 
> >>> sooner, but we need to get it to the rest of the world. New 
> >>> variants 
> >> It has already been demonstrated that the Pfizer booster is waning 
> >> to 75% efficacy on a timescale of 3 months. We are all going to 
> >> have to catch it and recover on not within the next couple of 
> >> years. 
> > 
> > I think that is a false assumption. Unfortunately the US is not 
> > homogeneous, so we have regions with vaccination rates of only 30%. 
> > Those will end up as Omicron hotbeds. The more highly vaccinated 
> > regions appear to be relaxing their restrictions allowing rapid 
> > growth of Omicron as well. I really have no idea of what goes 
> > through people's minds that they think we can keep ramping up and 
> > down the restrictions according to our comfort level. Hell, the CDC 
> > even recommended we not require masks!!! WTF is wrong with those 
> > idiots???
> Double vaccination does nothing at all to prevent you from catching the 
> Omicron variant. The booster jab Pfizer/Moderna is reckoned to cut the 
> risk of catching it by a factor of 4 for around 3 months but then wanes 
> away just like all immunity to coronaviruses tends to do.
> > 
> > 
> >>>>> There is an emphasis on at-home test kits (our libraries are 
> >>>>> giving them out, free of charge). But, no one stressing that 
> >>>>> the kit just gives you your *approximate* status -- at a 
> >>>>> single point in time! And, says nothing about "tomorrow", 
> >>>>> etc. 
> >>>> Problem with the quick home test lateral flow tests is that 
> >>>> they give false negatives too often to be helpful if used on 
> >>>> people without symptoms as a permission to do something risky. 
> >>>> 
> >>>> They were designed to test people with plausible symptoms 
> >>>> where they stand a much better chance of working but even then 
> >>>> the gold standard test can fail up to 20% of the time! Positive 
> >>>> means danger but a negative result does not mean safe - that is 
> >>>> a big problem with how they are now being used by the public 
> >>>> (encouraged by the politicians). 
> >>>>> It seems akin to publishing detailed pans for building 
> >>>>> in-home bomb shelters (cold war) and totally glossing over 
> >>>>> the fact that the effort expended will amount to naught! 
> >>>> Being seen to be doing something is part of it. 
> >>> 
> >>> Not really. Masking is far from perfect, but has real impact. 
> 
> >> Mostly in preventing people with the infection from spreading it. 
> > 
> > Is that what you intended to say? It sure comes up as obvious.
> Most people think that the mask is protecting them. Unless it is a 
> properly fitted airtight seal filtered system it doesn't do much. It 
> might be worth a factor of two or so on a good day.
> >>> Distancing is even more effective if properly done. Standing 6 
> >>> feet apart in the skyway leading to an airplane is pointless 
> >>> really, especially when you consider you will end up on the plane 
> >>> surrounded by up to 8 people all just two feet away for some 
> >>> hours! Yet that's a situation where you will end up being 
> >>> arrested if you don't follow the rules. 
> >> Omicron is so effective at airborne transmission I'm not 
> >> convinced. I can smell a vaper or smoker from 10m so I am pretty 
> >> sure that any virus they exhale would be there too. 
> > 
> > I don't know why you think that. Viruses are in droplets while smoke 
> > particles exist in sizes not too different from the virus, but not in 
> > droplets. So the smoke will hang in the air for very long times 
> > while the droplets containing the coronavirus settle to the ground 
> > relatively quickly.
> The aerosol particles causing all the trouble stay airborne for plenty 
> of time. 
> That is a big problem in recirculating air-conditioned buildings. 
> 
> Aircraft have pretty good in flight air filtration so it might not be so 
> bad there. More of a problem are your nearest neighbours on the flight.

yeh afaiu airplane are pretty safe, air enters at the ceiling and is sucked 
out near the floor so there a constant downward flow. ~40% air is recycled 
through hepa filters, the rest is from outside so all air is replaced every ~3 minutes

> US sequencing appears to show only 12% of whatever subset of PCR tests 
> they are testing as being real Omicron. It is not possible to know from 
> the way they publish it whether those are random tests of the entire PCR 
> positives or selected tests of those where there is an S-gene fail.

CDC appearancely have their own set of data.  From published set of NCBI data, it's neither Omicron or Delta, but Xi (credit to its creator).  The Xi virus contains E484Q and D614G mutations.

On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 9:11:29 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 25/12/2021 14:58, Fred Bloggs wrote: 
> > On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, 
> > bill....@ieee.org wrote: 
> >> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled 
> >> because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a 
> >> Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year 
> >> would be worse. 
> >> 
> >> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so 
> >> ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and 
> >> should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed 
> >> to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with 
> >> symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and 
> >> his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> >> 
> >> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but 
> >> they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying. 
> > 
> > The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the 
> > infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment. Do
> Not true. A small proportion of individuals seem predisposed to have 
> nasty complications with Covid. They are closing in on several genes 
> that seem to be implicated in the most extreme immune over reaction. 

Don't contradict me, idiot.


> 
> Risk doubles with every 8 years older you are. 
> 
r is that medical pulse oximeters misread 
> their blood oxygenation levels as higher than they really are. They were 
> insufficiently tested on other than fair skin. BMJ article on the bias: 
> 
> https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4926/rr-0 

Did you stumble across so some minutia on the subject? It it reports more exygen than is actually present.
There's no hysteria about misreadings in non-black people.

The industry isn't about to crack wide open on some minor reading errors when the standard acceptable error has been 6% forever. You don't know anything about the practice so your ignorant of the measurements that don't involve absolutes,
 
?
> 
> -- 
> Regards, 
> Martin Brown