OT: not a merry Christmas

On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 8:17:33 AM UTC-5, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 3:10:28 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote: 
> > On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 9:58:11 AM UTC-5, Fred Bloggs wrote: 
> > > On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote: 
> > > > After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> > > > 
> > > > One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> > > > 
> > > > Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying. 
> > > The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment. Do you fool people even own a pulse oximeter and thermometer? Oh well, never mind about any of that, just burn an incense stick. 
> > I think that's pretty much BS. Do you think my 95 yo friend is unlikely to die if he catches it? 
> > 
> > This variant seems like it is going to run the infection numbers up bigly. The US has a very steep spike starting and only a few states are showing it so far. Once all 50 kick in we are probably going to see well over 300k new infections per day. Heck, we already saw nearly 200,000 yesterday. We will see very small numbers because of the holiday weekend, then once we are past that the numbers will probably hit 300,000. After the new years we may see as high as 500,000 new infections per day. By that point you have to believe the prophylactic measures will be restored to (nearly) every state and the numbers will start a slow drop. That's the pattern in the US, a steep climb, a slow recognition of the severity of the situation, then finally a drop from the peak, but often not to the previous lower numbers. The only time we've managed to reach the low numbers of the summer of 2020 was in the summer of 2021 only to see the pattern repeat. Heck, even the global numbers are starting to take off. 
> > 
> > This will be a new peak like we haven't seen before and many, many people will die. We can hope I am wrong and the reports of lower severity are not exaggerated. At some point, I expect the larger infection numbers will overtake the lower severity and the death counts will rise significantly.
> I don't care what you think, you're an ignorant moron. 
> 
> Go take your park bench musings to some other NG.

Huh...  I guess I should have seen that coming.  

Why are people here so unwilling to actually discuss issues?  Instead they make decrees and expect everyone else to agree with them.  So Larkinesque.  

-- 

Rick C.

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On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 10:01:50 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 25/12/2021 17:38, Rick C wrote: 
> > On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 7:08:50 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown 
> > wrote: 
> >> On 24/12/2021 23:34, Rick C wrote: 
> >>> On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 8:51:17 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown
> >>>> What puzzles me about the US stats is that CDC are claiming 
> >>>> Omicron is now at 90% of all cases in some Eastern states and 
> >>>> 70% overall. 
> >>>> 
> >>>> https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/omicron-accounts-for-90percent-of-covid-cases-in-some-parts-of-the-us-cdc-director-says.html 
> >>>> 
> >> 
> >>>> 
> This seems impossibly high to me - UK is seeing about 70% of omicron 
> >>>> cases at present and close to 90% in London where it has really 
> >>>> got a hold and we should be in advance of you. How did the US 
> >>>> spread Omicron so fast or are they being sloppy in the testing 
> >>>> and confusing a high level of residual Alpha with Omega (both 
> >>>> are S-gene dropouts). 
> >>> 
> >>> I don't get what you don't understand. By all accounts the 
> >>> Omicron variant spreads VERY rapidly. While the initial 
> >>> detections came a bit later in the US, the virus has spread 
> >>> widely in the same time frame as in the UK. So I would expect the 
> >>> infection ratios to be about the same. 
> 
> >> But in the UK the Omicron variant has really only got hold of 
> >> London, Glasgow and Edinburgh (and the Scots are doing a much 
> >> better job of containing it). London hospital admissions have 
> >> doubled in the past 3 weeks due to rampant Omicron ~3% of Londoners 
> >> have active Covid at the moment according to the latest ONS 
> >> survey! 
> > 
> > Not sure what the "But" part of that is. What point are you trying 
> > to make? This sounds very much like what is happening in the US.
> Omicron's exponential growth has barely got started in the USA yet. 

That is very irrelevant and I'm not sure it's actually true.  I think what you are seeing is the fact that the US is very diverse with many areas much less exposed to this new strain and others taking off like a rocket.  So the less exposed areas dilute the rising numbers from the more exposed areas.  

The nature of an exponential infection is exponential from day one.  But we also have a rather large background of delta variant that masks the omicron numbers until they are well underway.  


> Looking at the world in data graphs UK started to rise from 1 Dec, 
> France from 8 Dec and USA from 15 Dec. Look at how steep UK and France 
> are now - USA will be like that in another fortnight. The Netherlands 
> has already locked down and that seems to be working for them. 
> 
> <https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~NLD~FRA~USA> 

It looks to me like both the US and the UK started taking off in early November.  Why do you pick Dec 1 as your start date?  In fact, in your graph the only country that stands out is the Netherlands starting in early Oct.  

What would be interesting would be a similar graph of only the omicron variant numbers without the other variants masking the data. 


> Whatever baseline level of infection that Delta can support in your 
> environment it looks like Omicron can easily double or triple it. It is 
> still too early to know when the curve will flatten but you can be sure 
> the UK will be the first one to find this out (the hard way).

Uh, the Netherlands has already peaked and dropped to about half that value.  I assume they have acted with strong measures to reduce the spread.  That is encouraging.  I am worried that this variant is so much more infectious that our limited means of repressing the spread may not bring the R value below 1.0 no matter what we do... or I should say, are *willing* to do. 


> >> Omicron spreading to the rest of the UK only really started a 
> >> month later when university students went home for Xmas. It still 
> >> hasn't shown up in the hospital admission statistics outside of 
> >> London (unlike last year when Alpha took off before Xmas in regions 
> >> with pubs still open). 
> > 
> > I think you connecting it to any particular events is baseless and of 
> > no value. It's not like there aren't thousands of people aren't 
> > traveling from London EVERY DAY! With exponential increases, such 
> > additional inoculations have little impact because the disease has 
> > already spread to much larger numbers than the inoculation.
> It is one of the key mechanisms that spread the virus far and wide. Up 
> until the universities broke up there were just 3 very hot cities that 
> had endemic Omicron. Now almost everywhere is seeded with it.

From what I see you aren't very good at reading the numbers.  So I'll take that with a grain of salt.  You don't respond to the logic of what I said, you just give your interpretation of the numbers.  There is NO SHORTAGE OF PEOPLE SPREADING THIS VIRUS in the UK or elsewhere.  It is not needed to add universities discharging students to explain what happens.  Larger areas with more influx of people will get earlier and larger exposure.  Areas with less influx will take longer for the virus to get established, but each is exponential growth all the way from day 1.  


> >>>> Their sequencing data shows about 12% (of what?) truly 
> >>>> Omicron. The reporting of data over there is incredibly 
> >>>> confusing. UK sequences a fairly high proportion of suspected 
> >>>> Omicron (or rather they did). 
> >>> 
> >>> I don't understand what you are saying here. What is 12%??? What 
> >>> does "truly Omicron" mean??? I didn't know there was any way of 
> >>> detecting variants other than by sequencing the virus. 
> >> The PCR test uses three loci. Wild strain and Delta give clear hits 
> >> on all three, but Alpha and Omicron fail on the S-gene. They use 
> >> this as an indicator that full sequencing is required to confirm 
> >> Omicron in the UK. (now that Omicron is totally dominant the 
> >> sequencing is redundant apart from random samples to look for any 
> >> further mutations gaining ground) 
> >> 
> >> Sloppy analysis will incorrectly allocate Alpha to Omicron unless 
> >> a confirmatory sequencing test is done. 
> > 
> > So what were you saying about 12%???
> US sequencing appears to show only 12% of whatever subset of PCR tests 
> they are testing as being real Omicron. It is not possible to know from 
> the way they publish it whether those are random tests of the entire PCR 
> positives or selected tests of those where there is an S-gene fail.
> >>>>> At 3K cases per day (in a state of just 6M souls), its not 
> >>>>> hard to see our 1.3M cases eventually cover all residents! 
> >>>> That isn't too bad really. UK has been twice that level since 
> >>>> July and we are now headed for 5x your level of infection 
> >>>> (maybe higher still). 
> >>> 
> >>> You are talking total daily infection rate? I think the two 
> >>> countries are within a factor of two. Both are headed up very 
> >>> steeply. 
> >> London has insanely high levels of mostly Omicron infection. 
> > 
> > You mean 12%?
> Peak value at the moment is reckoned to be 5% or 1:20 with an active 
> Covid infection in some parts of London.

Sorry, I'm not following what you are trying to say.  I don't know what the 1 is or what the 20 is.  What exactly is this ratio? 


> >> The rest of the country will likely end up in the same position 
> >> but delayed by about 3 weeks or so. The rise in number of cases is 
> >> frighteningly fast (some sampling effects too since people are 
> >> deliberately not getting tested to avoid isolating for Xmas). The 
> >> case doubling time where Omicron is most rampant is about 2-3 
> >> days. 
> > 
> > Actually, in the initial infection period in 2020 we saw doubling 
> > times of 3 days. The difference was no one was vaccinated and no one 
> > was wearing masks. The best we were doing was distancing... 
> > sometimes.
> This variant is way more infectious than anything that went before. It 
> might just possibly be a little less harmful but I'm not convinced that 
> isn't the vaccine preventing serious illness in the majority who are now 
> vaccinated.

I agree.


> >> I just don't see how it could spread quite so fast in America even 
> >> allowing for the tendency of some to take no precautions at all. It 
> >> is a big place. 
> > 
> > What does size have to do with it??? That just means it can achieve 
> > higher total numbers. The exponential factor is the same. We have 
> > lots of travel here. No state is an island (well, except for 
> > Hawaii). Once inoculated, it will spread across the country very 
> > quickly and the inoculation continues in each of the travel hubs.
> The shape of the curve tells you all you need to know. It has not been 
> active for long enough in the USA to really be as high as is claimed.

I suspect you have not paid close attention to the "claims".  Omicron is only a sizable proportion of Covid infections in select areas.  Much of the US is not yet seeing strong growth.  Florida was below 2,000 per day and in two weeks has risen to over 30,000 on the holiday (which means was probably not fully reported).  Meanwhile there is no indication of rapid rise in infection rates in Vermont and Kentucky for example.   

The areas with less omicron infection dilute the overall numbers masking the state of the infection.  The starting point is not so different from the UK.  You just need to look at the point where the numbers turn up, not where they get extremely steep.  


> >>>> It is the nature of pandemics to burn out on a timescale of 
> >>>> 3-5 years - by then most people have either had it and 
> >>>> recovered or are dead. 
> >>> 
> >>> We will see. The vaccine has the potential for ending it much 
> >>> sooner, but we need to get it to the rest of the world. New 
> >>> variants 
> >> It has already been demonstrated that the Pfizer booster is waning 
> >> to 75% efficacy on a timescale of 3 months. We are all going to 
> >> have to catch it and recover on not within the next couple of 
> >> years. 
> > 
> > I think that is a false assumption. Unfortunately the US is not 
> > homogeneous, so we have regions with vaccination rates of only 30%. 
> > Those will end up as Omicron hotbeds. The more highly vaccinated 
> > regions appear to be relaxing their restrictions allowing rapid 
> > growth of Omicron as well. I really have no idea of what goes 
> > through people's minds that they think we can keep ramping up and 
> > down the restrictions according to our comfort level. Hell, the CDC 
> > even recommended we not require masks!!! WTF is wrong with those 
> > idiots???
> Double vaccination does nothing at all to prevent you from catching the 
> Omicron variant. The booster jab Pfizer/Moderna is reckoned to cut the 
> risk of catching it by a factor of 4 for around 3 months but then wanes 
> away just like all immunity to coronaviruses tends to do.

What is your point???


> >>>>> There is an emphasis on at-home test kits (our libraries are 
> >>>>> giving them out, free of charge). But, no one stressing that 
> >>>>> the kit just gives you your *approximate* status -- at a 
> >>>>> single point in time! And, says nothing about "tomorrow", 
> >>>>> etc. 
> >>>> Problem with the quick home test lateral flow tests is that 
> >>>> they give false negatives too often to be helpful if used on 
> >>>> people without symptoms as a permission to do something risky. 
> >>>> 
> >>>> They were designed to test people with plausible symptoms 
> >>>> where they stand a much better chance of working but even then 
> >>>> the gold standard test can fail up to 20% of the time! Positive 
> >>>> means danger but a negative result does not mean safe - that is 
> >>>> a big problem with how they are now being used by the public 
> >>>> (encouraged by the politicians). 
> >>>>> It seems akin to publishing detailed pans for building 
> >>>>> in-home bomb shelters (cold war) and totally glossing over 
> >>>>> the fact that the effort expended will amount to naught! 
> >>>> Being seen to be doing something is part of it. 
> >>> 
> >>> Not really. Masking is far from perfect, but has real impact. 
> 
> >> Mostly in preventing people with the infection from spreading it. 
> > 
> > Is that what you intended to say? It sure comes up as obvious.
> Most people think that the mask is protecting them. Unless it is a 
> properly fitted airtight seal filtered system it doesn't do much. It 
> might be worth a factor of two or so on a good day.

That is not correct.  Masks are no different from a bullet proof vest.  It helps a great deal, but isn't perfect.  An airtight seal is not required to trap virus particles.  Getting infected is a matter of probability.  The more viruses that enter your body, the more likely you will be infected.  Fewer viruses means less likely.  The mask has been shown to help a great deal.  


> >>> Distancing is even more effective if properly done. Standing 6 
> >>> feet apart in the skyway leading to an airplane is pointless 
> >>> really, especially when you consider you will end up on the plane 
> >>> surrounded by up to 8 people all just two feet away for some 
> >>> hours! Yet that's a situation where you will end up being 
> >>> arrested if you don't follow the rules. 
> >> Omicron is so effective at airborne transmission I'm not 
> >> convinced. I can smell a vaper or smoker from 10m so I am pretty 
> >> sure that any virus they exhale would be there too. 
> > 
> > I don't know why you think that. Viruses are in droplets while smoke 
> > particles exist in sizes not too different from the virus, but not in 
> > droplets. So the smoke will hang in the air for very long times 
> > while the droplets containing the coronavirus settle to the ground 
> > relatively quickly.
> The aerosol particles causing all the trouble stay airborne for plenty 
> of time. 
> That is a big problem in recirculating air-conditioned buildings. 

"Plenty of time"???  Is that your esteemed opinion?  What sort of clock is used to measure "plenty of time"? 


> Aircraft have pretty good in flight air filtration so it might not be so 
> bad there. More of a problem are your nearest neighbours on the flight.

Exactly, the eight people I'm sitting next to for four hours are my biggest risk.  But I'm also exposed to everyone who walked down the jetway ahead of me and the several I'm standing next to for minutes while boarding the plane and while waiting for the flight.  It would seem very few know what 6 feet is.  


> >>>> UK has different policies in England (crazy free for all), 
> >>>> with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all being more 
> >>>> sensible. 
> >>>> 
> >>>> It remains to be seen who if anyone has called it right. 
> >>> 
> >>> The main issue is this new variant seems to be so much more 
> >>> infectious. Australia was doing very well until the Delta 
> >>> variant hit. Now Omicron is really running away. I suppose it 
> >>> spreads so easily that track and trace may not be able to keep up 
> >>> with it. This really may not stop until each country actually 
> >>> reaches herd immunity! In the US that's probably is only another 
> >>> 50 million infections among the unvaccinated. So maybe half a 
> >>> million more deaths. 
> >> Omicron appears to be a factor of two less dangerous than Delta 
> >> which puts it roughly on a par with the original wild strain and 
> >> Alpha. 
> > 
> > That is not nearly as important as how rapidly it spreads. Delta was 
> > proving difficult to prevent spreading. Omicron appears much more 
> > difficult. People who are not infected won't show up in hospitals 
> > or death counts. We could have stopped Delta. Omicron is looking to 
> > be more difficult. The good news is that at least in the US, the 
> > vaccination numbers are high enough that if we have another 20% or 
> > 30% infected, we may achieve herd immunity. The bad news is that may 
> > result in another half a million deaths.
> I'm not convinced either of Delta or Omicron could have been stopped in 
> a western democracy. The Netherlands is making the best fist of it so 
> far but it remains unclear whether their strategy or the UK's is best.

UK numbers are still rising exponentially.  Netherland's numbers are dropping.  I think that's pretty clear.  No? 

What is the difference in approach? 


> > It might also not work since the vaccines don't actually prevent you 
> > from getting infected, not completely. Rather it reduces the 
> > severity of infection. So the vaccinated may turn out to be a 
> > super-spreader population. That's why we still need to impose 
> > restrictions and get this under control.
> Don't think that I don't agree with you that we need additional 
> restrictions to try and slow omicron down - that is what almost all 
> scientists are saying (and have been for nearly a month). However, 
> scientists advise, ministers decide and then scientists get the blame. 
> 
> It is possible the UK will lock down eventually but The Boris is so 
> enfeebled by his rebellious swivel eyed loons on the back benches that 
> it could cost him his job as Prime Minister. They view everything as an 
> infringement on our civil liberties to spread infection far and wide. 
> 
> Until very very recently the Tories all refused to wear masks in 
> parliament whereas the opposition and government employees did. 

It seems even the progressive politicians are hobbled by those who resist the idea of infringing "rights" to infect who you wish.  I don't see anything in the US Constitution that says this. 

-- 

Rick C.

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On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 10:28:40 AM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote:
> yeh afaiu airplane are pretty safe, air enters at the ceiling and is sucked 
> out near the floor so there a constant downward flow. ~40% air is recycled 
> through hepa filters, the rest is from outside so all air is replaced every ~3 minutes

I don't see where that is so good.  A web page mentions that the air moves "from the ceiling" at 3 feet per second.  But they are talking about the rate it exits the tiny overhead nozzles.  Meanwhile it is turbulently mixing with all the air around the stream bringing particles from every seat around you.  

In chemistry we worked with hoods and laminar flow hoods.  Big difference.  

Exchanging the air every 3 minutes is not so good.  Bottom line is sitting in an airplane is like stewing in a Covid soup with air stirrers.  If any one person on the plane has Covid, it would most likely expose a significant number of people to the virus and result in several infections.  But at least it would likely not be the entire plane. 

Meanwhile many flights are being canceled because of Covid infections among the crews.  I'm worried about being able to travel back and forth in January.  I may have to stay in Virginia until this thing blows over.  It will suck to spend winters up north and summers down south! 

-- 

Rick C.

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--+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

søndag den 26. december 2021 kl. 19.41.25 UTC+1 skrev gnuarm.del...@gmail.com:
> On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 10:28:40 AM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote: 
> > yeh afaiu airplane are pretty safe, air enters at the ceiling and is sucked 
> > out near the floor so there a constant downward flow. ~40% air is recycled 
> > through hepa filters, the rest is from outside so all air is replaced every ~3 minutes
> I don't see where that is so good. A web page mentions that the air moves "from the ceiling" at 3 feet per second. But they are talking about the rate it exits the tiny overhead nozzles. Meanwhile it is turbulently mixing with all the air around the stream bringing particles from every seat around you. 
> 
> In chemistry we worked with hoods and laminar flow hoods. Big difference. 
> 
> Exchanging the air every 3 minutes is not so good. Bottom line is sitting in an airplane is like stewing in a Covid soup with air stirrers. If any one person on the plane has Covid, it would most likely expose a significant number of people to the virus and result in several infections. But at least it would likely not be the entire plane. 
> 

it's like a cleanroom, air flow is towards the floor and a the air is hepa filtered and replaced

On 26/12/2021 16:01, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 9:11:29 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown wrote:
>> On 25/12/2021 14:58, Fred Bloggs wrote:
>>> On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5,
>>> bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>>>> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled
>>>> because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a
>>>> Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year
>>>> would be worse.
>>>>
>>>> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so
>>>> ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and
>>>> should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed
>>>> to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with
>>>> symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and
>>>> his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared.
>>>>
>>>> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but
>>>> they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying.
>>>
>>> The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the
>>> infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment. Do
 >>
>> Not true. A small proportion of individuals seem predisposed to have
>> nasty complications with Covid. They are closing in on several genes
>> that seem to be implicated in the most extreme immune over reaction.
> 
> Don't contradict me, idiot.

Why not? When you are so clearly such a clueless fuckwit!

-- 
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 1:51:35 PM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote:
> søndag den 26. december 2021 kl. 19.41.25 UTC+1 skrev gnuarm.del...@gmail.com: 
> > On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 10:28:40 AM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote: 
> > > yeh afaiu airplane are pretty safe, air enters at the ceiling and is sucked 
> > > out near the floor so there a constant downward flow. ~40% air is recycled 
> > > through hepa filters, the rest is from outside so all air is replaced every ~3 minutes 
> > I don't see where that is so good. A web page mentions that the air moves "from the ceiling" at 3 feet per second. But they are talking about the rate it exits the tiny overhead nozzles. Meanwhile it is turbulently mixing with all the air around the stream bringing particles from every seat around you. 
> > 
> > In chemistry we worked with hoods and laminar flow hoods. Big difference. 
> > 
> > Exchanging the air every 3 minutes is not so good. Bottom line is sitting in an airplane is like stewing in a Covid soup with air stirrers. If any one person on the plane has Covid, it would most likely expose a significant number of people to the virus and result in several infections. But at least it would likely not be the entire plane. 
> >
> it's like a cleanroom, air flow is towards the floor and a the air is hepa filtered and replaced

Except that a cleanroom is... "clean".  Sitting next to an infected person is hugely not clean.  That's why people are not in contact with any of the critical parts of a clean room, they spew particles that can't be kept out of the machinery.  

In the airplane the air is only clean until it spews with huge turbulence from the *nozzle* right next to the other passenger's *nozzle*.  The combination drags significant air from him to you and vice versa.  

Maybe we need more protection between passengers.  A barrier of some kind? 

https://youtu.be/HWtPPWi6OMQ?t=30

-- 

Rick C.

-+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
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søndag den 26. december 2021 kl. 20.41.11 UTC+1 skrev gnuarm.del...@gmail.com:
> On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 1:51:35 PM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote: 
> > søndag den 26. december 2021 kl. 19.41.25 UTC+1 skrev gnuarm.del...@gmail.com: 
> > > On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 10:28:40 AM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote: 
> > > > yeh afaiu airplane are pretty safe, air enters at the ceiling and is sucked 
> > > > out near the floor so there a constant downward flow. ~40% air is recycled 
> > > > through hepa filters, the rest is from outside so all air is replaced every ~3 minutes 
> > > I don't see where that is so good. A web page mentions that the air moves "from the ceiling" at 3 feet per second. But they are talking about the rate it exits the tiny overhead nozzles. Meanwhile it is turbulently mixing with all the air around the stream bringing particles from every seat around you. 
> > > 
> > > In chemistry we worked with hoods and laminar flow hoods. Big difference. 
> > > 
> > > Exchanging the air every 3 minutes is not so good. Bottom line is sitting in an airplane is like stewing in a Covid soup with air stirrers. If any one person on the plane has Covid, it would most likely expose a significant number of people to the virus and result in several infections. But at least it would likely not be the entire plane. 
> > > 
> > it's like a cleanroom, air flow is towards the floor and a the air is hepa filtered and replaced
> Except that a cleanroom is... "clean". Sitting next to an infected person is hugely not clean. That's why people are not in contact with any of the critical parts of a clean room, they spew particles that can't be kept out of the machinery. 
> 

and whatever particles they do spew is forced towards the floor where it is sucked out and filtered

> In the airplane the air is only clean until it spews with huge turbulence from the *nozzle* right next to the other passenger's *nozzle*. The combination drags significant air from him to you and vice versa. 
> 

most of air the comes from vents in the ceiling not the nozzles, you can close those

On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 4:07:49 PM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote:
> søndag den 26. december 2021 kl. 20.41.11 UTC+1 skrev gnuarm.del...@gmail.com: 
> > On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 1:51:35 PM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote: 
> > > søndag den 26. december 2021 kl. 19.41.25 UTC+1 skrev gnuarm.del...@gmail.com: 
> > > > On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 10:28:40 AM UTC-5, lang...@fonz.dk wrote: 
> > > > > yeh afaiu airplane are pretty safe, air enters at the ceiling and is sucked 
> > > > > out near the floor so there a constant downward flow. ~40% air is recycled 
> > > > > through hepa filters, the rest is from outside so all air is replaced every ~3 minutes 
> > > > I don't see where that is so good. A web page mentions that the air moves "from the ceiling" at 3 feet per second. But they are talking about the rate it exits the tiny overhead nozzles. Meanwhile it is turbulently mixing with all the air around the stream bringing particles from every seat around you. 
> > > > 
> > > > In chemistry we worked with hoods and laminar flow hoods. Big difference. 
> > > > 
> > > > Exchanging the air every 3 minutes is not so good. Bottom line is sitting in an airplane is like stewing in a Covid soup with air stirrers. If any one person on the plane has Covid, it would most likely expose a significant number of people to the virus and result in several infections. But at least it would likely not be the entire plane. 
> > > > 
> > > it's like a cleanroom, air flow is towards the floor and a the air is hepa filtered and replaced 
> > Except that a cleanroom is... "clean". Sitting next to an infected person is hugely not clean. That's why people are not in contact with any of the critical parts of a clean room, they spew particles that can't be kept out of the machinery. 
> >
> and whatever particles they do spew is forced towards the floor where it is sucked out and filtered

You seem to be in denial that there is mixing in the air between passengers on airliners.  That is why I referred previously to hoods and laminar flow hoods.  The airflow in an air plane is very slow really and you end up breathing a lot of air that your fellow passengers have breathed.  It is not a clean room, it is not a laminar flow hood.   The airflow on planes was designed a long time ago when the goal was simply to provide fresh air.  Because the vents are all along the outside wall of the aircraft, it is impossible to maintain airflow downward without crossing multiple passengers.  

This reminds me of discussing nuclear energy with someone who retired from the nuclear industry.  He talked about getting more radiation on an airplane flying to a facility than he would in the facility.  That has never been in dispute and is largely irrelevant to today's concerns rather than the PR issues that arose when nuclear power was first being introduced. 


> > In the airplane the air is only clean until it spews with huge turbulence from the *nozzle* right next to the other passenger's *nozzle*. The combination drags significant air from him to you and vice versa. 
> >
> most of air the comes from vents in the ceiling not the nozzles, you can close those

I can't close the nozzles the people around me are using.  For that air to reach the passengers it has to cut right through the much slower airflow from the vents totally disrupting the "ideal" airflow which wasn't very good to begin with. 

Take a look at the cross section of an airplane and show me how the air does not mix between passengers flowing from outlet to inlet. 

-- 

Rick C.

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On Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 1:58:11 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> > After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> > 
> > One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> > 
> > Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying.
>
> The only people who end up dying these days are the ones who let the infection get away from them before seeking competent treatment.

I wonder why Fred thinks that? He's probably trying to persuade himself that he isn't likely to die of Covid-19

> Do you fool people even own a pulse oximeter and thermometer? Oh well, never mind about any of that, just burn an incense stick. 

Everybody owns a thermometer. The local chemist doesn't seem to stock blood oximeters. Amazon has them for about $A30.00, so it could be a sensible investment, for anybody who  knew enough about blood oxygen levels to react sensibly to the output - I don't (though I could probably find out). Incense sticks don't do anything useful, which is presumably Fred's point.

-- 
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Monday, December 27, 2021 at 12:17:33 AM UTC+11, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 3:10:28 PM UTC-5, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote: 
> > On Saturday, December 25, 2021 at 9:58:11 AM UTC-5, Fred Bloggs wrote: 
> > > On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote: 

<snip>

> > This will be a new peak like we haven't seen before and many, many people will die. We can hope I am wrong and the reports of lower severity are not exaggerated. At some point, I expect the larger infection numbers will overtake the lower severity and the death counts will rise significantly.
>
> I don't care what you think, you're an ignorant moron. 

Fred does like to post that about other people. It save him from the effort of explaining why he disagrees with their opinions which is frequently because he has got something  wrong and lacks the capacity to work out why.
 
> Go take your park bench musings to some other NG.

If only Fred would take his own advice. He still seems to think that "a highly conserved domain " means "a domain that doesn't mutate" when it actually means "a domain where most mutations are lethal so we never get to see them".

-- 
Bill Sloman, Sydney