OT: not a merry Christmas

After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse.

One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning,  with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared.

 Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying.

-- 
Bill Sloman, Sydney

IEEE Bill strikes again :  bill....@ieee.org wrote:
===================================
>
> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my 
> brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot,
>  I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> 
> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, 
> then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, 
> and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother 
>- as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen 
> test at home. ife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> 
>
**   " Time wounds all heels.  " 

( How dare this narcissistic POS expect any sympathy here ) 



.....  Phil 

On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 2:41:26 PM UTC+11, palli...@gmail.com wrote:
> IEEE Bill strikes again : bill....@ieee.org wrote: 
> ===================================
> > 
> > After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my 
> > brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, 
> > I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> > 
> > One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, 
> > then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, 
> > and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother 
> >- as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen
> > test at home. My brother and his  wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> > 
> ** " Time wounds all heels. " 
> 
> ( How dare this narcissistic POS expect any sympathy here ) 

Why would I need sympathy? I've got out of a splendid opportunity to get infected by the other relatives. My brother and his wife do deserve sympathy, but Phil is looking at it from his own decidedly psychopathic point of view and this has escaped him.

It is an object lesson in just how infectious the Omicron variant is - if that is what the grand-niece has got, as seems likely.

-- 
Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> 
> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> 
> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying. 

I know what you mean.  I am flying every week and I don't feel I should be around anyone this season.  I have some work I need to take care of at some point, otherwise I'm hanging at home. 

It sucks... but better than killing off my friends.  One is 95 and he is happy to have no one come over.  I'm surprised they haven't closed the dining room again, but as soon as they get a few infections I'm sure they will.  For whatever reason, it always takes someone dying before people get the message, if then.  Ironically the Governor has tested positive for Covid, but being boosted he is asymptomatic at the moment.  Still, no mask mandates in Maryland or Virginia although DC and a few counties around it have reinstituted mandates. 

Wow!  I just looked at the numbers for the US and a couple of states.  This thing is going into orbit like nothing else so far!!!  Florida has gone from 7,000 to 27,000 in just one week!  That makes the doubling period... about 3.5 days!  Maybe I shouldn't use Florida numbers.  They have been very erratic lately.  I know the death numbers at worldometer are totally erratic reporting 1 for the most recent day with the previous numbers ramping up to the 20s.  Then the next day the same thing.  As the days go by 1 turns into 3, then 5, then 7, etc.  

It is insane that the people in charge can't see these numbers and understand them.  They so clearly tell us that we need to take serious precautions, yet we seem to be much quicker to open up when things improve a little, while we wait for things to get really bad before we do anything to help.  

-- 

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

Anthony William Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote in
news:07a705dc-6756-4d6d-81f0-188b1722f2e5n@googlegroups.com: 

> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled
> because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a
> Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year
> would be worse. 
> 
> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so
> ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and
> should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed
> to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning,  with
> symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother
> and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were
> prepared. 
> 
>  Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted,
>  but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying. 
> 

  I too am 2+1

  My young niece and her friend went from Texas up to Colorado for 
something.  I do not have the details yet, but she got sick and says 
it was while there.  I do not know if they drove or flew.

  I am trying to get her the new treatment pill that reduces 
infection severity in a patient.  She is/was likely not vaxed due to 
her age...  Not sure why.  I have to talk to my sister.  Still 
outside the activity list for pandemic supression if you ask me.

  If I send my sister and her a Merry Christmas Card along with a get 
well card, they would recieve it long after Christmas and hopefully 
after she has already recovered.

  Hey...  I know!  There are "electronic" 'greeting cards' one can 
send.  Likely not free, but instant and can include video snips or 
photos and audio.  Hmmm...  I am sure I could construct my own.

  I sure hope she recovers quickly.  Most likely Omicron.

Phil Allison <pallison49@gmail.com> wrote in
news:9a5dd1fa-5ea0-4dae-9c23-d7cf8efb196an@googlegroups.com: 

snip

Looky!  Phil Allison is talking about himself again!

He says...

> **   " Time wounds all heels.  " 

  Nope.  Can't fix the stupid level heel that is Phil Allison.

> ( How dare this narcissistic POS expect any sympathy here )

  The narcissistic total piece of shit Phil Allison would never 'get' 
anything, much less sympathy from anyone in this group.  You would not 
even get coal and newspaper.

On 24/12/2021 04:24, Rick C wrote:
> On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse.
>>
>> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared.
>>
>> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying.
> 
> I know what you mean.  I am flying every week and I don't feel I should be around anyone this season.  I have some work I need to take care of at some point, otherwise I'm hanging at home.
> 
> It sucks... but better than killing off my friends.  One is 95 and he is happy to have no one come over.  I'm surprised they haven't closed the dining room again, but as soon as they get a few infections I'm sure they will.  For whatever reason, it always takes someone dying before people get the message, if then.  Ironically the Governor has tested positive for Covid, but being boosted he is asymptomatic at the moment.  Still, no mask mandates in Maryland or Virginia although DC and a few counties around it have reinstituted mandates.

On TV here in the UK yesterday the reporters visited some hospital wards 
where they were filled with very ill Covid patients, almost without 
exception they were in the 30 - 40 age range and were unvaccinated.

> Wow!  I just looked at the numbers for the US and a couple of states.  This thing is going into orbit like nothing else so far!!!  Florida has gone from 7,000 to 27,000 in just one week!  That makes the doubling period... about 3.5 days!  Maybe I shouldn't use Florida numbers.  They have been very erratic lately.  I know the death numbers at worldometer are totally erratic reporting 1 for the most recent day with the previous numbers ramping up to the 20s.  Then the next day the same thing.  As the days go by 1 turns into 3, then 5, then 7, etc.

27000 in a week? Yesterday we got to a new record of just under 120000 
new cases in a *day*! However, the "good" news was that a new study 
appeared to confirm that those getting Omicron were 50 - 70% less likely 
to end up in hospital*. In fact, hospital numbers and daily deaths are 
pretty steady at present. The "bad" news was that studies show the 
effect of the booster starts waning after only 10- 12 weeks. I think 
there have been reports of a further booster being required 3 - 4 months 
after the third.

* % figures vary in how they are presented, eg 
<https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-omicron-is-dangerous-despite-lower-hospitalisation-risk/>

> It is insane that the people in charge can't see these numbers and understand them.  They so clearly tell us that we need to take serious precautions, yet we seem to be much quicker to open up when things improve a little, while we wait for things to get really bad before we do anything to help.

it's interesting that some (I'm not sure who...) are praising Boris 
Johnson for not locking down before Christmas because the results of the 
study mentioned above showed Omicron to be milder in its effects. It 
appears, though, that further restrictive measures will start soon after 
Christmas. Which, of course, agrees with your comment of things being 
done too late. By the end of the next week, the social gatherings on the 
25th will have exposed far more to Omicron. I would not be surprised to 
see us hitting 200k - 250k+ in daily new cases by then, with around a 
million in total in that week. It won't help if you're 50 - 70% less 
likely to end up in hospital if there's 3 or 4 times as many as Delta 
getting ill. The hospitals will be swamped.

-- 

Jeff

On Friday, December 24, 2021 at 3:33:29 AM UTC-5, Jeff Layman wrote:
> On 24/12/2021 04:24, Rick C wrote: 
> > On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org wrote: 
> >> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year would be worse. 
> >> 
> >> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared. 
> >> 
> >> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying. 
> > 
> > I know what you mean. I am flying every week and I don't feel I should be around anyone this season. I have some work I need to take care of at some point, otherwise I'm hanging at home. 
> > 
> > It sucks... but better than killing off my friends. One is 95 and he is happy to have no one come over. I'm surprised they haven't closed the dining room again, but as soon as they get a few infections I'm sure they will. For whatever reason, it always takes someone dying before people get the message, if then. Ironically the Governor has tested positive for Covid, but being boosted he is asymptomatic at the moment. Still, no mask mandates in Maryland or Virginia although DC and a few counties around it have reinstituted mandates.
> On TV here in the UK yesterday the reporters visited some hospital wards 
> where they were filled with very ill Covid patients, almost without 
> exception they were in the 30 - 40 age range and were unvaccinated.

Remember that factoid. 


> > Wow! I just looked at the numbers for the US and a couple of states. This thing is going into orbit like nothing else so far!!! Florida has gone from 7,000 to 27,000 in just one week! That makes the doubling period... about 3.5 days! Maybe I shouldn't use Florida numbers. They have been very erratic lately. I know the death numbers at worldometer are totally erratic reporting 1 for the most recent day with the previous numbers ramping up to the 20s. Then the next day the same thing. As the days go by 1 turns into 3, then 5, then 7, etc.
> 27000 in a week? 

No, it went from 7,000 per day to 27,000 per day in one week.  I'm talking about the growth rate.  Actually, I think the original initial curve had a doubling period of 3 days and about 10 days for a 10 fold increase, so this is not that fast, however, the beginning of the infection people had no masks and no vaccines. 


> Yesterday we got to a new record of just under 120000 
> new cases in a *day*! However, the "good" news was that a new study 
> appeared to confirm that those getting Omicron were 50 - 70% less likely 
> to end up in hospital*. 

Remember your factoid indicating it may be a younger age group getting infected?  It has always been the virus impacts the older age groups preferentially.  But if it is moving down the age ladder, it only makes sense the rate of hospitalization would drop.  


> In fact, hospital numbers and daily deaths are 
> pretty steady at present. The "bad" news was that studies show the 
> effect of the booster starts waning after only 10- 12 weeks. I think 
> there have been reports of a further booster being required 3 - 4 months 
> after the third. 

In the US several areas are being hit hard and hospitals are filling up. 


> * % figures vary in how they are presented, eg 
> <https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-omicron-is-dangerous-despite-lower-hospitalisation-risk/>
> > It is insane that the people in charge can't see these numbers and understand them. They so clearly tell us that we need to take serious precautions, yet we seem to be much quicker to open up when things improve a little, while we wait for things to get really bad before we do anything to help.
> it's interesting that some (I'm not sure who...) are praising Boris 
> Johnson for not locking down before Christmas because the results of the 
> study mentioned above showed Omicron to be milder in its effects. It 
> appears, though, that further restrictive measures will start soon after 
> Christmas. Which, of course, agrees with your comment of things being 
> done too late. By the end of the next week, the social gatherings on the 
> 25th will have exposed far more to Omicron. I would not be surprised to 
> see us hitting 200k - 250k+ in daily new cases by then, with around a 
> million in total in that week. It won't help if you're 50 - 70% less 
> likely to end up in hospital if there's 3 or 4 times as many as Delta 
> getting ill. The hospitals will be swamped. 

Indeed! 

-- 

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

On 24/12/2021 08:33, Jeff Layman wrote:
> On 24/12/2021 04:24, Rick C wrote:
>> On Thursday, December 23, 2021 at 10:36:34 PM UTC-5, bill....@ieee.org 
>> wrote:
>>> After last's years family Christmas get-together got cancelled 
>>> because my brother's house was just inside the southern edge of a 
>>> Covid-19 hot-spot, I suppose I should have expected that this year 
>>> would be worse.
>>>
>>> One of my grand-nieces showed up at my brother's house day or so ago, 
>>> then went home to find that she was a Covid-19 contact and should get 
>>> tested, and proved to have been infected. She'd managed to infect her 
>>> grandmother - as demonstrated this morning, with symptoms that 
>>> prompted a rapid antigen test at home. My brother and his wife have 
>>> about a dozen grand-children so they were prepared.
>>>
>>> Both my brother and his wife are double-vaccinated and boosted, but 
>>> they are in their seventies, so it is a bit worrying.
>>
>> I know what you mean.  I am flying every week and I don't feel I 
>> should be around anyone this season.  I have some work I need to take 
>> care of at some point, otherwise I'm hanging at home.
>>
>> It sucks... but better than killing off my friends.  One is 95 and he 
>> is happy to have no one come over.  I'm surprised they haven't closed 
>> the dining room again, but as soon as they get a few infections I'm 
>> sure they will.  For whatever reason, it always takes someone dying 
>> before people get the message, if then.  Ironically the Governor has 
>> tested positive for Covid, but being boosted he is asymptomatic at the 
>> moment.  Still, no mask mandates in Maryland or Virginia although DC 
>> and a few counties around it have reinstituted mandates.
> 
> On TV here in the UK yesterday the reporters visited some hospital wards 
> where they were filled with very ill Covid patients, almost without 
> exception they were in the 30 - 40 age range and were unvaccinated.

It is pretty much the Facebook generation that believe the antiscience 
so effectively promulgated on that platform by ignorant anti-vaxxers.

>> Wow!  I just looked at the numbers for the US and a couple of states.  
>> This thing is going into orbit like nothing else so far!!!  Florida 
>> has gone from 7,000 to 27,000 in just one week!  That makes the 
>> doubling period... about 3.5 days!  Maybe I shouldn't use Florida 
>> numbers.  They have been very erratic lately.  I know the death 
>> numbers at worldometer are totally erratic reporting 1 for the most 
>> recent day with the previous numbers ramping up to the 20s.  Then the 
>> next day the same thing.  As the days go by 1 turns into 3, then 5, 
>> then 7, etc.
> 
> 27000 in a week? Yesterday we got to a new record of just under 120000 
> new cases in a *day*! However, the "good" news was that a new study 
> appeared to confirm that those getting Omicron were 50 - 70% less likely 
> to end up in hospital*. In fact, hospital numbers and daily deaths are 
> pretty steady at present. The "bad" news was that studies show the 
> effect of the booster starts waning after only 10- 12 weeks. I think 
> there have been reports of a further booster being required 3 - 4 months 
> after the third.
> 
> * % figures vary in how they are presented, eg 
> <https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-omicron-is-dangerous-despite-lower-hospitalisation-risk/> 

I find this news comparing Omicron as being 50-70% less dangerous than 
Delta as somewhat misleading (possibly wilfully so) since Delta was 100% 
more dangerous than either Alpha or the wild form of the virus. The 
originals were both bad enough to be very serious indeed last year.

The big difference is that now the virus is going up against a heavily 
vaccinated UK population so it might be *that* rather than the virus 
being more benign that is making the difference. We are walking a 
tightrope with acid eating through one end at the moment.

It is impossible to tell how it will play out for sure but if London 
which is well ahead of all the rest of the UK is any guide then we will 
see 2x as many people in hospital with Covid in 3 weeks time. That much 
growth is probably already baked in by now. Even more if people are 
cavalier at Xmas and New Year and less if they remain cautious.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59776415

Titled "Glimmer of Christmas hope on Omicron..."

The figure titled "Patients in hospital rising in many areas" about 4 
pages down uses a definition of "many" that I am not familiar with. The 
only place really screwed up so far is London where it has doubled in 21 
days - everywhere else is steady to within baseline noise or falling.
(that will not persist - universities breaking up seeded the nation)

One puzzle is that the hospitalisations in Scotland are not rising 
anything like as fast as London despite the fact that their two major 
cities were seeded with Omicron at the same time as London by COP26. The 
difference is that they have a credible leader doing sensible things.

>> It is insane that the people in charge can't see these numbers and 
>> understand them.&nbsp; They so clearly tell us that we need to take serious 
>> precautions, yet we seem to be much quicker to open up when things 
>> improve a little, while we wait for things to get really bad before we 
>> do anything to help.
> 
> it's interesting that some (I'm not sure who...) are praising Boris 
> Johnson for not locking down before Christmas because the results of the 
> study mentioned above showed Omicron to be milder in its effects. It 

Milder than Delta by the stated amount but about the same as Alpha or 
perhaps maybe a few percentage points less harmful (for a population 
consisting mostly of double or triple vaccinated people).

> appears, though, that further restrictive measures will start soon after 
> Christmas. Which, of course, agrees with your comment of things being 
> done too late. By the end of the next week, the social gatherings on the 
> 25th will have exposed far more to Omicron. I would not be surprised to 
> see us hitting 200k - 250k+ in daily new cases by then, with around a 
> million in total in that week. It won't help if you're 50 - 70% less 
> likely to end up in hospital if there's 3 or 4 times as many as Delta 
> getting ill. The hospitals will be swamped.

That is the problem with a linear protection factor it cannot save you 
from an exponential growth in number of cases. It merely delays the 
inevitable. I half expect Boris the procrastinating prevaricator to 
announce a total lockdown from 2nd January (or maybe like last year 
allow the schools to go back for one day and then total lockdown). It is 
like Groundhog Day here - same PM, same stupid mistakes again and again!

I have news from Japan where the number of Covid cases is "high" for 
them at 500/day (mostly centred around and on US bases) and my friends 
say it is fairly safe there but boring. They envy the UK's apparent 
freedom and having life as "normal" (that is how it is reported on TV).

-- 
Regards,
Martin Brown

On 12/24/2021 4:22 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> I have news from Japan where the number of Covid cases is "high" for them at 
> 500/day (mostly centred around and on US bases) and my friends say it is fairly 
> safe there but boring. They envy the UK's apparent freedom and having life as 
> "normal" (that is how it is reported on TV).

I'm not sure *anyone* has got the "messaging" correct.

The northern part of the US is apparently seeing a surge -- attributed
to moving indoors with the colder weather.  If that's the case, then
explaining our increase infection rate would need another cause
as there's no need to be indoors (when it's 25+C outdoors).  The
influz of winter visitors is likely to blame as is the lack of
masks (amusing to see couples in the stores:  she masked, he without!
Does she really think she's protected if she shares a home/bed with
him?)

At 3K cases per day (in a state of just 6M souls), its not hard
to see our 1.3M cases eventually cover all residents!

There is an emphasis on at-home test kits (our libraries are
giving them out, free of charge).  But, no one stressing that
the kit just gives you your *approximate* status -- at a
single point in time!  And, says nothing about "tomorrow",
etc.

It seems akin to publishing detailed pans for building in-home
bomb shelters (cold war) and totally glossing over the fact that
the effort expended will amount to naught!