On Thu, 7 Dec 2017 08:44:04 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill <bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:>> >> >Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider: >> > >> >> >http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 >> > >> >> >https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study >> > >> >> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business. >> > >> >Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far. >> > >> > >> >> That's not what I meant. > >Fire engines are another likely EV candidate. > > >Bret CahillTo put out the battery fires? -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
EVs Will Soon Be Vastly Cheaper To Own Than Carbon Fuel Vehicles
Started by ●December 3, 2017
Reply by ●December 8, 20172017-12-08
Reply by ●December 10, 20172017-12-10
On 03/12/17 18:06, Bret Cahill wrote:> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider: > > http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 > > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study > > > Bret CahillIt's an interesting idea, but is it viable? The weak point is Scandium. According to the Wikipedia Scandium entry, current world production is around only 10 tonnes! That wouldn't go very far, if you consider that the magnesium-scandium-selenide spinel contains around 22% scandium if you look at a typical formula - MgSc2Se4 - from the original Nature article (<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01772-1>) . So, currently, if all the world's Scandium was turned into batteries, it would probably make enough for a few hundred cars at most. And then you have consider where the Scandium would come from. Again, from the Wiki, commercial production is at present from only three sources - Ukraine, Russia, and China. Looks like we'd need a lot more sources for production and price stability if it's to be used in a mainstream battery. More info here: <https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf> -- Jeff
Reply by ●December 11, 20172017-12-11
> > Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider: > > > > http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 > > > > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study > > > > > > Bret Cahill > > It's an interesting idea, but is it viable? The weak point is Scandium. > According to the Wikipedia Scandium entry, current world production is > around only 10 tonnes! That wouldn't go very far, if you consider that > the magnesium-scandium-selenide spinel contains around 22% scandium if > you look at a typical formula - MgSc2Se4 - from the original Nature > article (<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01772-1>) . So, > currently, if all the world's Scandium was turned into batteries, it > would probably make enough for a few hundred cars at most.From your link: "Resources of scandium are abundant in relation to demand. Scandium is rarely concentrated in nature because of its lack of affinity for the common ore- forming anions. It is widely dispersed in the lithosphere and forms solid solutions in more than 100 minerals." <https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf> It seems like 1 cent/kW-hr power could really lower the cost of a lot of concentration processes. For some reason this fact is never in the media.> And then you have consider where the Scandium would come from. Again, > from the Wiki, commercial production is at present from only three > sources - Ukraine, Russia, and China."There are identified scandium resources in Australia, Canada, China, Kazakhstan, Madagascar, Norway, the Philippines, Russia, and Ukraine." <https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf>
Reply by ●December 13, 20172017-12-13
John Larkin wrote on 12/8/2017 8:48 PM:> On Thu, 7 Dec 2017 08:44:04 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill > <bretcahill@aol.com> wrote: > >>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider: >>>> >>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 >>>> >>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study >>>> >>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business. >>>> >>>> Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far. >>>> >>>> >>> >>> That's not what I meant. >> >> Fire engines are another likely EV candidate. >> >> >> Bret Cahill > > To put out the battery fires?At least they can be doused with water. Gasoline fires are much harder to fight. There was an accident on the DC beltway some years back where a car cut off a gasoline tanker at the 270 split and the truck ended up straddling the guard rail. Its momentum rammed it into the overpass abutment and it came apart all over the highway. A number of people were maimed and killed. The car that caused the accident was never found. They closed the overpass until they could be sure the heat didn't weaken the steel. Of course traffic was a total disaster. At least car batteries won't release all the energy of a tanker filled with gasoline! This happened some time ago so to be sure of the details I googled the accident. It was not so easy to find amongst all the many other gasoline tanker accidents on the highways. -- Rick C Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms, on the centerline of totality since 1998
Reply by ●December 15, 20172017-12-15
Bret Cahill wrote:> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which > Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a > better battery will appear, however. They have good information on > it and it isn't all that insider: > > http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 > > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study > > > Bret Cahill"electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study" That's good news. Then we don't have to subsidize it.
Reply by ●December 15, 20172017-12-15
On Fri, 15 Dec 2017 17:20:34 -0500, "Tom Del Rosso" <fizzbintuesday@that-google-mail-domain.com> wrote:>Bret Cahill wrote: >> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which >> Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a >> better battery will appear, however. They have good information on >> it and it isn't all that insider: >> >> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 >> >> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study >> >> >> Bret Cahill > >"electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study" > >That's good news. Then we don't have to subsidize it. > >Hurray!! Good news! ...Jim Thompson -- | James E.Thompson | mens | | Analog Innovations | et | | Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus | | STV, Queen Creek, AZ 85142 Skype: skypeanalog | | | Voice:(480)460-2350 Fax: Available upon request | Brass Rat | | E-mail Icon at http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 | It's what you learn, after you know it all, that counts.
Reply by ●December 16, 20172017-12-16
> >>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which=Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better = battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn'= t all that insider:> >>>> > >>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-t=o-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12> >>>> > >>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-=already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study> >>>> > >>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business. > >>>> > >>>> Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense=right now as they generally don't go far.> >>>> > >>>> > >>> > >>> That's not what I meant. > >> > >> Fire engines are another likely EV candidate. > >> > >> > >> Bret Cahill > > > > To put out the battery fires? >=20 > At least they can be doused with water. Gasoline fires are much harder t=o=20> fight. There was an accident on the DC beltway some years back where a c=ar=20> cut off a gasoline tanker at the 270 split and the truck ended up straddl=ing=20> the guard rail. Its momentum rammed it into the overpass abutment and it==20> came apart all over the highway. A number of people were maimed and kill=ed.=20> The car that caused the accident was never found. They closed the=20 > overpass until they could be sure the heat didn't weaken the steel. Of==20> course traffic was a total disaster. >=20 > At least car batteries won't release all the energy of a tanker filled wi=th=20> gasoline! >=20 > This happened some time ago so to be sure of the details I googled the=20 > accident. It was not so easy to find amongst all the many other gasoline==20> tanker accidents on the highways.One must-do if not entirely formal study would be to compare the stats on t= he number of lives lost developing and using fossil carbon technology, i.e.= , black lung, mine, boiler, drill rig and other explosions & fires, to numb= er of deaths from non fossil tech, i.e., dams, Solar City, wind turbines, G= alaxy cell phones, etc. The basis would be life-years / joule. Researchers could even include Dutchmen falling off old timey windmills, da= re devil swimmers sucked through the turbines swimming across Lake Mead, wh= atever. You could easily get 2 sig fig accuracy. Hyping such a study would hamstring snow trollers because they must at leas= t pretend in their talking points no process can involve more than one step= or involve more than one effect ("8 feet of Gore Bull wammin' just fell on= Buffalo! BWAHAHAHAHA!").=20 Once you force them to open the door to consider multiple factors like the = advances in safety regulations, tort law as well as the technology, it star= ts to drain the fun out of their "it's simple" shtick. Bret Cahill
Reply by ●December 18, 20172017-12-18
On Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 10:06:22 AM UTC-8, Bret Cahill wrote:> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider: > > http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 > > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study > > > Bret CahillWe used to have driverless cars, which could bring you home when you were asleep or drunk. Then they got rid of the horse. Bring back the Horse and Buggy! Horses are solar-powered! They eat grass, which grows from sunlight! 4 hp Horse and Buggy! Now with steel ball bearings! Charge your cell phones with the onboard brushless motor alternator! Michael
Reply by ●December 19, 20172017-12-19
On Mon, 18 Dec 2017 15:11:30 -0800 (PST), mrdarrett@gmail.com wrote:>On Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 10:06:22 AM UTC-8, Bret Cahill wrote: >> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider: >> >> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12 >> >> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study >> >> >> Bret Cahill > > >We used to have driverless cars, which could bring you home when you were asleep or drunk. Then they got rid of the horse. > >Bring back the Horse and Buggy! Horses are solar-powered! They eat grass, which grows from sunlight! > >4 hp Horse and Buggy! Now with steel ball bearings! Charge your cell phones with the onboard brushless motor alternator! > >MichaelHow much insurance does a horse need? -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
Reply by ●January 19, 20182018-01-19
> > I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers. > > > > He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look. No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings. > > > > Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM. > > Read the book, "The Reckoning" by David Halberstam. If you think GM is bad, > I bet Ford is worse.Ford might not be quite as "hidebound" now as in the past. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-ford-motor/ford-plans-11-billion-investment-40-electrified-vehicles-by-2022-idUSKBN1F30YZ I wish I had a < 5 week response time planning letters to politicians. We're living in a philosopher-engineer's paradise. Just daydream out loud and it becomes reality in real time. Bret Cahill
