EVs Will Soon Be Vastly Cheaper To Own Than Carbon Fuel Vehicles

Bret Cahill wrote on 12/5/2017 12:00 PM:
>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>>>>
>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>
>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>>>
>>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
>>
>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla.  I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
>> buy one the way I want it configured.
>
> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time.  Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.

Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that 
battery?  Two very different things.  Having a battery out in 10 years is 
not much different from saying it will be out in 100 years.


>> I need to look at the options a bit
>> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not.  I also want to get more info
>> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X.  With a range of
>> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
>> station even on long trips.  The 480 mile trip has five options for
>> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
>> mile range.
>
> An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.

Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip?  I 
typically stop to eat anyway.  Not only has Tesla built a large network of 
super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers. 
Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018. 
Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.

-- 

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998

default wrote on 12/5/2017 1:32 PM:
> On Tue, 5 Dec 2017 09:05:56 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
> <bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:
>
>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>
>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>
>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>
>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>>
>> Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.
>>
>>
> Or small gas turbine APU's that they could drop off with stranded
> motorists, that they just chuck in the trunk and return when they can.
>
> There's lots of ways to make this work.  It will be interesting to see
> how it all plays out.

WTF???  I can count on one hand how many times I've run out of gas in my 
life and all but one of those was when I was a dumb kid.  One time I ran out 
of gas because I had a shipping deadline to make and would have missed if I 
got gas *before* I dropped off the package and then didn't have quite enough 
gas to get to the gas station.  The EV is a very "smart" car which will 
allow you to keep in very close touch with your consumption and range and 
distance to public facilities, not to mention that you can put some minimal 
amount of charge on the batteries even from a 110 volt outlet.  It may be a 
while getting some charge, but being stranded is something that should 
happen less often with an EV than a gas powered car.  There are more 110 
outlets in a single city than all the gas stations in the entire USA.

-- 

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998

On Tue, 5 Dec 2017 09:05:56 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
<bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:

>> >Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>
>> >http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>
>> >https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>
>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>
>Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.
>
>

That's not what I meant.


-- 

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics 

John Larkin wrote on 12/6/2017 12:07 AM:
> On Tue, 5 Dec 2017 09:05:56 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
> <bretcahill@aol.com> wrote:
>
>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>
>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>
>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>
>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>>
>> Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.
>>
>>
>
> That's not what I meant.

No, he wasn't trying to make sense.

-- 

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998

> >>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >
> >>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >>>
> >>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
> >>
> >> I'm still considering getting a Tesla.  I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
> >> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
> >> buy one the way I want it configured.
> >
> > Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time.  Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
> 
> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that 
> battery?  Two very different things.  

If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?

How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion?  They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs.  Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries.  Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.

> Having a battery out in 10 years 

Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite.  Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.

As William Faulkner said people need to be encouraged.

> >> I need to look at the options a bit
> >> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not.  I also want to get more info
> >> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X.  With a range of
> >> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
> >> station even on long trips.  The 480 mile trip has five options for
> >> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
> >> mile range.
> >
> > An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.
> 
> Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip?  I 
> typically stop to eat anyway.  

Drivers shouldn't be on the I-5 or 99 for more than 8 hours w/o a break anyway.  Every time you drive to NorCal you regret not flying and every time you fly you regret not driving.  Low speed rail takes 24 hours.

> Not only has Tesla built a large network of 
> super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers. 

You can go anywhere in the Sonoran Desert by EV, at least North of the border.

> Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018. 
> Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.

Tesla tried the charming "build it and they will come" approach with EVs and it actually worked!

You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.


Bret Cahill

> >> >Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >
> >> >http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >
> >> >https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >
> >> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >
> >Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.
> >
> >
> 
> That's not what I meant.

Fire engines are another likely EV candidate.


Bret Cahill

Bret Cahill wrote on 12/7/2017 11:42 AM:
>>>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>>
>>>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>>>>>
>>>>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
>>>>
>>>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla.  I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
>>>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
>>>> buy one the way I want it configured.
>>>
>>> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time.  Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
>>
>> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
>> battery?  Two very different things.
>
> If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?
>
> How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion?  They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs.  Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries.  Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.

Cell phone have very little in common with cars.  Not sure what your point is.


>> Having a battery out in 10 years
>
> Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite.  Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.

I'm not clear on what Toyota is claiming, hence my question.


> As William Faulkner said people need to be encouraged.
>
>>>> I need to look at the options a bit
>>>> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not.  I also want to get more info
>>>> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X.  With a range of
>>>> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
>>>> station even on long trips.  The 480 mile trip has five options for
>>>> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
>>>> mile range.
>>>
>>> An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.
>>
>> Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip?  I
>> typically stop to eat anyway.
>
> Drivers shouldn't be on the I-5 or 99 for more than 8 hours w/o a break anyway.  Every time you drive to NorCal you regret not flying and every time you fly you regret not driving.  Low speed rail takes 24 hours.

None of this makes much sense to anyone who isn't from your area.  Are you 
in the US?


>> Not only has Tesla built a large network of
>> super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers.
>
> You can go anywhere in the Sonoran Desert by EV, at least North of the border.
>
>> Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018.
>> Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.
>
> Tesla tried the charming "build it and they will come" approach with EVs and it actually worked!

Yeah, they are in the final stage of having a high volume, mass production 
EV on the market unlike GM or any of the other companies.  GM's approach is 
amazing.  "Build part of it and don't market much and see if it will fail". 
I won't buy a Bolt because GM is only selling a car and not a solution. 
They are depending on others to take care of the issues of getting the cars 
charged.


> You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.

Who's "they"?  Tesla is doing it all.  Tesla is the only car company that 
understands the market in my opinion.  Everyone else is working on building 
and selling EVs exactly the same way they sell gas cars.  That won't work.

-- 

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998

> >>>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist.  Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however.  They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >>>
> >>>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
> >>>>
> >>>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla.  I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
> >>>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
> >>>> buy one the way I want it configured.
> >>>
> >>> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time.  Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
> >>
> >> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
> >> battery?  Two very different things.
> >
> > If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?
> >
> > How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion?  They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs.  Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries.  Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.

> Cell phone have very little in common with cars.  Not sure what your point is.

> >> Having a battery out in 10 years
> >
> > Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite.  Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.
> 
> I'm not clear on what Toyota is claiming, hence my question.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-tokyo-toyota-battery/toyota-scrambles-to-ready-game-changer-ev-battery-for-mass-market-idUSKBN1CW27Y

> > As William Faulkner said people need to be encouraged.
> >
> >>>> I need to look at the options a bit
> >>>> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not.  I also want to get more info
> >>>> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X.  With a range of
> >>>> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
> >>>> station even on long trips.  The 480 mile trip has five options for
> >>>> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
> >>>> mile range.
> >>>
> >>> An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.
> >>
> >> Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip?  I
> >> typically stop to eat anyway.
> >
> > Drivers shouldn't be on the I-5 or 99 for more than 8 hours w/o a break anyway.  Every time you drive to NorCal you regret not flying and every time you fly you regret not driving.  Low speed rail takes 24 hours.
> 
> None of this makes much sense to anyone who isn't from your area.  Are you 
> in the US?
> 
> 
> >> Not only has Tesla built a large network of
> >> super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers.
> >
> > You can go anywhere in the Sonoran Desert by EV, at least North of the border.
> >
> >> Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018.
> >> Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.
> >
> > Tesla tried the charming "build it and they will come" approach with EVs and it actually worked!
> 
> Yeah, they are in the final stage of having a high volume, mass production 
> EV on the market unlike GM or any of the other companies.  GM's approach is 
> amazing.  "Build part of it and don't market much and see if it will fail". 
> I won't buy a Bolt because GM is only selling a car and not a solution. 

I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers.

He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look.  No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings.

Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM.

> They are depending on others to take care of the issues of getting the cars 
> charged.

> > You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.
> 
> Who's "they"?  Tesla is doing it all.  Tesla is the only car company that 
> understands the market in my opinion.  Everyone else is working on building 
> and selling EVs exactly the same way they sell gas cars.  That won't work.

The others either figger it out or go tits up.  Battery + solar is already cheaper than diesel.

The e semi makes even more sense than passenger EV.

You don't take side trips on a lark in a heavy truck.  Everything is planned so there's no such thing as range anxiety.  Since a commercial vehicle spends so much time on the road the payback is much faster, financing easier.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/anheuser-busch-preorders-40-tesla-semis.html

A heavy truck gets 100 ton miles/gallon or with an e semi 8 ton miles/ kW-hr.

That's about $1.80 for 15 cents/kW-hr grid electricity + $1.20 for the battery for 100 ton miles.

Solar PV is only a few cents/kW-hr. so the total there is already cheaper than $2.50/gallon diesel and battery costs are still going down.

Supposedly Mexico will soon have the cheapest electricity on the planet:

1 cent/kW-hr.


Bret Cahill

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-s-12-000-job-cuts-highlight-uneasy-shift-to-renewable-energy

Bret Cahill wrote on 12/7/2017 8:29 PM:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla.  I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
>>>>>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
>>>>>> buy one the way I want it configured.
>>>>>
>>>>> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time.  Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
>>>>
>>>> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
>>>> battery?  Two very different things.
>>>
>>> If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?
>>>
>>> How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion?  They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs.  Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries.  Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.
>
>> Cell phone have very little in common with cars.  Not sure what your point is.
>
>>>> Having a battery out in 10 years
>>>
>>> Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite.  Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.
>>
>> I'm not clear on what Toyota is claiming, hence my question.
>
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-tokyo-toyota-battery/toyota-scrambles-to-ready-game-changer-ev-battery-for-mass-market-idUSKBN1CW27Y

"The new batteries, which have more than twice the energy density of lithium 
ion units, could power electric vehicles more than 300 miles on a single 
charge and enter production in the early 2020s, top engineers at the company 
said.

Since 2012, Toyota has managed a fivefold increase in the power output of 
its experimental solid-state batteries, Senior Managing Officer Soichiro 
Okudaira told a conference here.

The current coin-sized cell is still in the laboratory stage. But Toyota 
expects the technology to be ready for cars in the early 2020s, Hideki Iba, 
general manager for the Japanese carmaker's battery research division, said 
separately. "

So this new battery won't be in cars for some five or more years.

"Looking further ahead, Toyota is working on so-called lithium air 
batteries, which have energy densities around 1,000 watt-hours per liter. 
Their power output is on par with solid-state units.

In lithium air batteries, the lithium cathode used in lithium ion batteries 
is replaced with one that interacts with oxygen. This requires less material 
and allows for lighter packaging.

Toyota projected those would be ready after 2030."

This is even worse, with such a long lead time it might end up not being 
practical for auto use.


> I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers.
>
> He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look.  No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings.
>
> Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM.

Read the book, "The Reckoning" by David Halberstam.  If you think GM is bad, 
I bet Ford is worse.


>> They are depending on others to take care of the issues of getting the cars
>> charged.
>
>>> You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.
>>
>> Who's "they"?  Tesla is doing it all.  Tesla is the only car company that
>> understands the market in my opinion.  Everyone else is working on building
>> and selling EVs exactly the same way they sell gas cars.  That won't work.
>
> The others either figger it out or go tits up.  Battery + solar is already cheaper than diesel.

Huge, mega-companies like GM don't have to do everything right.  Look at all 
the many, many screwups by Intel which they just toss on the trash heap. 
Heck, at one point they sold their ARM license to one of the companies who 
is now eating their lunch!

GM will sell the Bolt and possibly improve it and come out with another 
model or two while everyone else (hopefully everyone) learns the nature of 
the market and adapts.  GM won't go "tits up", they will just loose money on 
it for many years ahead before they end up buying cars from someone else and 
rebranding them.


> The e semi makes even more sense than passenger EV.
>
> You don't take side trips on a lark in a heavy truck.  Everything is planned so there's no such thing as range anxiety.  Since a commercial vehicle spends so much time on the road the payback is much faster, financing easier.
>
> https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/anheuser-busch-preorders-40-tesla-semis.html
>
> A heavy truck gets 100 ton miles/gallon or with an e semi 8 ton miles/ kW-hr.
>
> That's about $1.80 for 15 cents/kW-hr grid electricity + $1.20 for the battery for 100 ton miles.
>
> Solar PV is only a few cents/kW-hr. so the total there is already cheaper than $2.50/gallon diesel and battery costs are still going down.
>
> Supposedly Mexico will soon have the cheapest electricity on the planet:
>
> 1 cent/kW-hr.



-- 

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998