https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a billion dollars. We just don't need few-nm chips. -- Father Brown's figure remained quite dark and still; but in that instant he had lost his head. His head was always most valuable when he had lost it.
bit about transistor cost
Started by ●December 6, 2021
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On Monday, December 6, 2021 at 12:44:06 PM UTC-5, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor > > I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over > $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a > billion dollars. > > We just don't need few-nm chips."If they weren't so good, why would I buy so many?" Anyone remember that Volvo ad? -- Rick C. - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On 12/6/2021 19:42, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor > > I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over > $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a > billion dollars. > > We just don't need few-nm chips. > > >Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see that in full. Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost.
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 20:36:17 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <dp@tgi-sci.com> wrote:>On 12/6/2021 19:42, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor >> >> I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over >> $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a >> billion dollars. >> >> We just don't need few-nm chips. >> >> >> > >Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory >becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see >that in full. >Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion >engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance >to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost.Some things have got good enough. Hammers, spoons, beds, LED lights, microwave ovens. Moore's Law can't go on forever, and is probably at or in same cases past its practical limit. We don't need 3 nm chips to text and twitter. I can't imagine my cell phone needing to be better hardware. I need a dumb, last-gen FPGA that is less fancy inside but fast pin-to-pin. The trend is in the opposite directions. Maybe Moore's law is running on psychological momentum, fear of getting behind. I think I can see that happening. -- If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts, but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties. Francis Bacon
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On 12/6/2021 20:47, John Larkin wrote:> On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 20:36:17 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <dp@tgi-sci.com> > wrote: > >> On 12/6/2021 19:42, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor >>> >>> I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over >>> $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a >>> billion dollars. >>> >>> We just don't need few-nm chips. >>> >>> >>> >> >> Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory >> becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see >> that in full. >> Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion >> engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance >> to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost. > > Some things have got good enough. Hammers, spoons, beds, LED lights, > microwave ovens. Moore's Law can't go on forever, and is probably at > or in same cases past its practical limit. > > We don't need 3 nm chips to text and twitter. I can't imagine my cell > phone needing to be better hardware.Oh they have already bloated the software so the need for todays (and way back from today) hardware would be there. Just have faith, they'll manage it for 3 nm if say TSMC get there.> > I need a dumb, last-gen FPGA that is less fancy inside but fast > pin-to-pin. The trend is in the opposite directions.I get this obviously, I have similar needs (not yet your ps thing but for how long). But this is my point, so you can make what you want to make you will need access to a silicon factory... Clearly you can do better if you design your silicon instead of tweaking an fpga. However this is unlikely to become a viable alternative simply because of cost - and well, only the large ones will be allowed to design. Does not get much shittier than that (not just for the likes of us) but this is where the world is heading.> > Maybe Moore's law is running on psychological momentum, fear of > getting behind. I think I can see that happening. >I don't give that much thought, I think it is gone since the clock frequencies for processors etc. stopped getting higher but I am neither sure not interested in what exacltly that "law" means.
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
Dimiter_Popoff wrote:> On 12/6/2021 20:47, John Larkin wrote: >> On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 20:36:17 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <dp@tgi-sci.com> >> wrote: >> >>> On 12/6/2021 19:42, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>>> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor >>>> >>>> I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over >>>> $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a >>>> billion dollars. >>>> >>>> We just don't need few-nm chips. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory >>> becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see >>> that in full. >>> Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion >>> engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance >>> to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost. >> >> Some things have got good enough. Hammers, spoons, beds, LED lights, >> microwave ovens. Moore's Law can't go on forever, and is probably at >> or in same cases past its practical limit. >> >> We don't need 3 nm chips to text and twitter. I can't imagine my cell >> phone needing to be better hardware. > > Oh they have already bloated the software so the need for todays > (and way back from today) hardware would be there. Just have faith, > they'll manage it for 3 nm if say TSMC get there. > >> >> I need a dumb, last-gen FPGA that is less fancy inside but fast >> pin-to-pin. The trend is in the opposite directions. > > I get this obviously, I have similar needs (not yet your ps thing > but for how long). > But this is my point, so you can make what you want to make you > will need access to a silicon factory... Clearly you can do better > if you design your silicon instead of tweaking an fpga.Depends. There are very few applications that will support the sheer NRE cost of a full custom chip down at single-nanometer nodes. Cheers Phil Hobbs -- Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics Briarcliff Manor NY 10510 http://electrooptical.net http://hobbs-eo.com
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 14:21:23 -0500, Phil Hobbs <pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote:>Dimiter_Popoff wrote: >> On 12/6/2021 20:47, John Larkin wrote: >>> On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 20:36:17 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <dp@tgi-sci.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> On 12/6/2021 19:42, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>>>> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor >>>>> >>>>> I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over >>>>> $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a >>>>> billion dollars. >>>>> >>>>> We just don't need few-nm chips. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory >>>> becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see >>>> that in full. >>>> Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion >>>> engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance >>>> to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost. >>> >>> Some things have got good enough. Hammers, spoons, beds, LED lights, >>> microwave ovens. Moore's Law can't go on forever, and is probably at >>> or in same cases past its practical limit. >>> >>> We don't need 3 nm chips to text and twitter. I can't imagine my cell >>> phone needing to be better hardware. >> >> Oh they have already bloated the software so the need for todays >> (and way back from today) hardware would be there. Just have faith, >> they'll manage it for 3 nm if say TSMC get there. >> >>> >>> I need a dumb, last-gen FPGA that is less fancy inside but fast >>> pin-to-pin. The trend is in the opposite directions. >> >> I get this obviously, I have similar needs (not yet your ps thing >> but for how long). >> But this is my point, so you can make what you want to make you >> will need access to a silicon factory... Clearly you can do better >> if you design your silicon instead of tweaking an fpga. > >Depends. There are very few applications that will support the sheer >NRE cost of a full custom chip down at single-nanometer nodes. > >Cheers > >Phil HobbsI can imagine some serious head slapping when someone finds a fatal flaw in this mask set. -- If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts, but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties. Francis Bacon
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On 12/6/2021 21:48, John Larkin wrote:> On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 14:21:23 -0500, Phil Hobbs > <pcdhSpamMeSenseless@electrooptical.net> wrote: > >> Dimiter_Popoff wrote: >>> On 12/6/2021 20:47, John Larkin wrote: >>>> On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 20:36:17 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <dp@tgi-sci.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> On 12/6/2021 19:42, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>>>>> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor >>>>>> >>>>>> I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over >>>>>> $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a >>>>>> billion dollars. >>>>>> >>>>>> We just don't need few-nm chips. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory >>>>> becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see >>>>> that in full. >>>>> Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion >>>>> engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance >>>>> to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost. >>>> >>>> Some things have got good enough. Hammers, spoons, beds, LED lights, >>>> microwave ovens. Moore's Law can't go on forever, and is probably at >>>> or in same cases past its practical limit. >>>> >>>> We don't need 3 nm chips to text and twitter. I can't imagine my cell >>>> phone needing to be better hardware. >>> >>> Oh they have already bloated the software so the need for todays >>> (and way back from today) hardware would be there. Just have faith, >>> they'll manage it for 3 nm if say TSMC get there. >>> >>>> >>>> I need a dumb, last-gen FPGA that is less fancy inside but fast >>>> pin-to-pin. The trend is in the opposite directions. >>> >>> I get this obviously, I have similar needs (not yet your ps thing >>> but for how long). >>> But this is my point, so you can make what you want to make you >>> will need access to a silicon factory... Clearly you can do better >>> if you design your silicon instead of tweaking an fpga. >> >> Depends. There are very few applications that will support the sheer >> NRE cost of a full custom chip down at single-nanometer nodes. >> >> Cheers >> >> Phil Hobbs > > I can imagine some serious head slapping when someone finds a fatal > flaw in this mask set. > > >Welcome to the future :). Like I said before, I just hope I don't live long enough to be part of it.
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On Monday, December 6, 2021 at 1:47:47 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:> On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 20:36:17 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <d...@tgi-sci.com> > wrote: > >On 12/6/2021 19:42, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: > >> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor > >> > >> I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over > >> $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a > >> billion dollars. > >> > >> We just don't need few-nm chips. > >> > >> > >> > > > >Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory > >becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see > >that in full. > >Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion > >engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance > >to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost. > Some things have got good enough. Hammers, spoons, beds, LED lights, > microwave ovens. Moore's Law can't go on forever, and is probably at > or in same cases past its practical limit. > > We don't need 3 nm chips to text and twitter. I can't imagine my cell > phone needing to be better hardware.Your imagination is very limited. I'd like my phone to be a LOT faster and use less power. Both of those things are what drives semiconductor advances. I'd like my laptop to run as fast as now or faster, but using less power so the battery lasts longer.> I need a dumb, last-gen FPGA that is less fancy inside but fast > pin-to-pin. The trend is in the opposite directions.??? FPGAs, like most semiconductors, run faster as they shrink the feature sizes. There are companies that address the low end. Try Gowin and I believe Renesas, who bought Dialog is offering small FPGAs although I don't know how fast. Like with many devices, if you aren't going to buy millions, you are invisible to the companies providing the product.> Maybe Moore's law is running on psychological momentum, fear of > getting behind. I think I can see that happening.LOL! You are so funny sometimes. I guess the companies that are slower to adopt new technology actually make more profit. Then they get the money to play catch up and make less money again. Yeah, that's a thing. I suppose that fits with your philosophy that everyone who doesn't think like you is an idiot no matter how successful they are. -- Rick C. + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging + Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●December 6, 20212021-12-06
On 06/12/2021 19:04, Dimiter_Popoff wrote:> On 12/6/2021 20:47, John Larkin wrote: >> On Mon, 6 Dec 2021 20:36:17 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <dp@tgi-sci.com> >> wrote: >> >>> On 12/6/2021 19:42, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>>> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/the-rising-tide-of-semiconductor >>>> >>>> I've also heard that the cost of one next-gen euv scanner is well over >>>> $200M, and that the design and mask set for a high-end chip costs a >>>> billion dollars. >>>> >>>> We just don't need few-nm chips. >>> >>> Gradually electronics design without having access to a silicon factory >>> becomes useless, hopefully the process is slow enough so we don't see >>> that in full. >>> Sort of like nowadays you can somehow master an internal combustion >>> engine if you have a lathe and a milling machine but you have no chance >>> to make it comparable to those car makers make, not to speak about cost. >> >> Some things have got good enough. Hammers, spoons, beds, LED lights, >> microwave ovens. Moore's Law can't go on forever, and is probably at >> or in same cases past its practical limit. >> >> We don't need 3 nm chips to text and twitter. I can't imagine my cell >> phone needing to be better hardware.I would like a *lot* more battery life - the speed is more than adequate for my needs. I'd trade slower when idle for longer life. Likewise with PC's. I'm in the market for a new one right now but I'm not convinced that any of them offer single threaded performance that is 3x better than the ancient i7-3770 I have now. That has always been my upgrade heuristic (used to be every 3 years). Clock speeds have maxed out and now they are adding more cores (many of which are idle most of the time). Performance cores and efficient cores is the new selling point. It looks on paper like the i5-12600K might just pass this test.> Oh they have already bloated the software so the need for todays > (and way back from today) hardware would be there. Just have faith, > they'll manage it for 3 nm if say TSMC get there.Software will always grow to use the memory and speed available. CPU cycles are cheap and getting cheaper and humans are expensive. IBM claim to have 2nm chip fab technology as of this year. https://newsroom.ibm.com/2021-05-06-IBM-Unveils-Worlds-First-2-Nanometer-Chip-Technology,-Opening-a-New-Frontier-for-Semiconductors#assets_all>> I need a dumb, last-gen FPGA that is less fancy inside but fast >> pin-to-pin. The trend is in the opposite directions. > > I get this obviously, I have similar needs (not yet your ps thing > but for how long). > But this is my point, so you can make what you want to make you > will need access to a silicon factory... Clearly you can do better > if you design your silicon instead of tweaking an fpga. However > this is unlikely to become a viable alternative simply because of > cost - and well, only the large ones will be allowed to design. > Does not get much shittier than that (not just for the likes of us) > but this is where the world is heading.It may yet swing the other way when simulations are so good that the conversion to masks is essentially error free. Where it gets tricky is when the AI is designing new chips for us that no-one understands. This years BBC Rieth lectures are about the rise of AI and the future by Stuart Russell of Berkley (starts this Wednesday). https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/1N0w5NcK27Tt041LPVLZ51k/reith-lectures-2021-living-with-artificial-intelligence>> Maybe Moore's law is running on psychological momentum, fear of >> getting behind. I think I can see that happening.It is still at least partially holding for number density of transistors if not for actual computing performance. We must be very close to the limits where quantum effects mess things up (but 3D stacks allow some alternative ways of gaining number density on a chip).> I don't give that much thought, I think it is gone since the clock > frequencies for processors etc. stopped getting higher but I am > neither sure not interested in what exacltly that "law" means.It was originally specified in terms of transistors per chip. -- Regards, Martin Brown
