"I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins. My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?" Bard: Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why: Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet. Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can keep doubling your money. Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So, statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip than lose it. -- Rich
O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice
Started by ●December 30, 2023
Reply by ●December 30, 20232023-12-30
The idiot RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll... -- RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> wrote:> X-Received: by 2002:a05:622a:1756:b0:428:12e6:99b2 with SMTP id l22-20020a05622a175600b0042812e699b2mr233158qtk.5.1703986452929; > Sat, 30 Dec 2023 17:34:12 -0800 (PST) > X-Received: by 2002:a05:690c:d1e:b0:5e8:f507:6f8a with SMTP id > cn30-20020a05690c0d1e00b005e8f5076f8amr7325843ywb.9.1703986452631; Sat, 30 > Dec 2023 17:34:12 -0800 (PST) > Path: not-for-mail > Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design > Date: Sat, 30 Dec 2023 17:34:12 -0800 (PST) > Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=199.33.32.40; posting-account=x2WXVAkAAACheXC-5ndnEdz_vL9CA75q > NNTP-Posting-Host: 199.33.32.40 > User-Agent: G2/1.0 > MIME-Version: 1.0 > Message-ID: <2ead918f-a6d1-4ca4-90d2-126ba5140373n@googlegroups.com> > Subject: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice > From: RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> > Injection-Date: Sun, 31 Dec 2023 01:34:12 +0000 > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" > X-Received-Bytes: 1846
Reply by ●December 31, 20232023-12-31
On Sat, 30 Dec 2023 17:34:12 -0800 (PST), RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> wrote:>"I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins. >My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I >get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?" > >Bard: >Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why: >Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning >one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet. > >Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are >unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can >keep doubling your money. > >Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance >of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So, >statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip >than lose it.I don't follow. Sounds like a non-sequitur.
Reply by ●January 1, 20242024-01-01
On Monday, January 1, 2024 at 4:37:31 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:> On Sat, 30 Dec 2023 17:34:12 -0800 (PST), RichD > <r_dela...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > >"I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins. > >My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I > >get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?" > > > >Bard: > >Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why: > >Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning > >one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet. > > > >Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are > >unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can > >keep doubling your money. > > > >Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance > >of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So, > >statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip > >than lose it. > > I don't follow. Sounds like a non-sequitur.It is. The point is that while your loss is limited to losing your initial bet, you do that half the time and while a prolonged winning streak is atheoretical possibility, is is very improbable, and if you sum over all possible games you still end up even. Since you can't live forever, you can sum over all possible games. Your opponent is going to run out of money long before you drop dead, so summing over "all possible games" isn't going require much computation. -- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by ●January 1, 20242024-01-01
The idiot Anthony William Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> persisting in being an Off-topic troll... -- Anthony William Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> wrote:> X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:4548:b0:781:2437:a9cc with SMTP id u8-20020a05620a454800b007812437a9ccmr372199qkp.0.1704125123266; > Mon, 01 Jan 2024 08:05:23 -0800 (PST) > X-Received: by 2002:a25:ab83:0:b0:dbd:efef:b6fd with SMTP id > v3-20020a25ab83000000b00dbdefefb6fdmr5486175ybi.5.1704125123010; Mon, 01 Jan > 2024 08:05:23 -0800 (PST) > Path: not-for-mail > Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design > Date: Mon, 1 Jan 2024 08:05:22 -0800 (PST) > In-Reply-To: <dl93pil4ueqsdm6p8d0v79jqtltvgdp61s@4ax.com> > Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=59.102.83.245; posting-account=SJ46pgoAAABuUDuHc5uDiXN30ATE-zi- > NNTP-Posting-Host: 59.102.83.245 > References: <2ead918f-a6d1-4ca4-90d2-126ba5140373n@googlegroups.com> <dl93pil4ueqsdm6p8d0v79jqtltvgdp61s@4ax.com> > User-Agent: G2/1.0 > MIME-Version: 1.0 > Message-ID: <daf17992-c466-45d9-8f69-e5c523f39c39n@googlegroups.com> > Subject: Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice > From: Anthony William Sloman <bill.sloman@ieee.org> > Injection-Date: Mon, 01 Jan 2024 16:05:23 +0000 > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" > Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > X-Received-Bytes: 2920
Reply by ●January 1, 20242024-01-01
The arsehole Cursitor Doom <cd@notformail.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll... -- Cursitor Doom <cd@notformail.com> wrote:> Path: not-for-mail > From: Cursitor Doom <cd@notformail.com> > Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design > Subject: Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice > Date: Sun, 31 Dec 2023 17:37:23 +0000 > Organization: A noiseless patient Spider > Lines: 22 > Message-ID: <dl93pil4ueqsdm6p8d0v79jqtltvgdp61s@4ax.com> > References: <2ead918f-a6d1-4ca4-90d2-126ba5140373n@googlegroups.com> > MIME-Version: 1.0 > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii > Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit > Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="a197234df316aef4d0767e87bf51287f"; > logging-data="1902809"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1+3Yb/ZFy7hid8aQEC/oBQguXvsZJJlkuE=" > User-Agent: ForteAgent/8.00.32.1272 > Cancel-Lock: sha1:h+VJPXr3LOZDaPDhrC90EdlzOUA= > X-Received-Bytes: 2009
Reply by ●January 6, 20242024-01-06
On December 31, Cursitor Doom wrote:>> "I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins. >> My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I >> get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?" >> Bard: >> Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why: >> Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning >> one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet. >> Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are >> unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can >> keep doubling your money. >> Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance >> of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So, >> statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip >> than lose it. > > I don't follow. Sounds like a non-sequitur.haha, exactly! Bard's answer is absurd, a non sequitur. Google's state of the art AI evidently can read, but understanding remains elusive - -- Rich
Reply by ●January 6, 20242024-01-06
The idiot RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> persisting in being an Off-topic troll... -- RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> wrote:> X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:4247:b0:781:5a49:af9e with SMTP id w7-20020a05620a424700b007815a49af9emr57658qko.7.1704567390783; > Sat, 06 Jan 2024 10:56:30 -0800 (PST) > X-Received: by 2002:a05:690c:689:b0:5f2:bc90:f1ed with SMTP id > bp9-20020a05690c068900b005f2bc90f1edmr642965ywb.4.1704567390324; Sat, 06 Jan > 2024 10:56:30 -0800 (PST) > Path: not-for-mail > Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design > Date: Sat, 6 Jan 2024 10:56:30 -0800 (PST) > In-Reply-To: <dl93pil4ueqsdm6p8d0v79jqtltvgdp61s@4ax.com> > Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=205.154.192.197; posting-account=x2WXVAkAAACheXC-5ndnEdz_vL9CA75q > NNTP-Posting-Host: 205.154.192.197 > References: <2ead918f-a6d1-4ca4-90d2-126ba5140373n@googlegroups.com> <dl93pil4ueqsdm6p8d0v79jqtltvgdp61s@4ax.com> > User-Agent: G2/1.0 > MIME-Version: 1.0 > Message-ID: <5f3b5b0b-23fd-4f84-9041-5436591c9646n@googlegroups.com> > Subject: Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice > From: RichD <r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> > Injection-Date: Sat, 06 Jan 2024 18:56:30 +0000 > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" > X-Received-Bytes: 2299
