https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. -- I yam what I yam - Popeye
bang-bang control loop
Started by ●January 25, 2022
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On Tuesday, January 25, 2022 at 1:33:13 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html > > We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much > damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary.Really? You think this is Bang-Bang control? Perhaps you don't know what the term means? Or much more likely you have such little understanding of economics you don't know what the Fed does or how it does it? What do you think the Fed should do? -- Rick C. - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 20:36:57 -0000 (UTC), Jasen Betts <usenet@revmaps.no-ip.org> wrote:>On 2022-01-25, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com <jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com> wrote: >> >> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html >> >> We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much >> damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. > >many think this is intentional.Probably is. -- If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts, but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties. Francis Bacon
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On 1/25/2022 12:33 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> > https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html > > We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much > damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary.Ever done if voltage too high: duty cycle = 20%, if voltage too low: duty cycle = 80% on a boost topology? If the load is like a Nixie tube or something seems to work alright. Stand by for my economy = Nixie tube formal presentation
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On 1/25/2022 12:33 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:> > https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html > > We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much > damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. > > >Speaking of control theory ever seen the optimized minimum-time-to-climb path for e.g. a jet fighter aircraft using the minumum-energy-state optimization methods? It's friggin' weird like go straight up. Go sideways. Dive for a while at 45 degrees down. Pull up 45 degrees. Pull straight up again. Invert the aircraft and fly at 45 degrees inverted to the first dive. How the pilot keeps their lunch in the process is the other control-theory problem
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 16:19:04 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:>On 1/25/2022 12:33 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> >> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html >> >> We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much >> damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. > > >Ever done if voltage too high: duty cycle = 20%, if voltage too low: >duty cycle = 80% on a boost topology?I've done something like that, a boost converter where the control element is a schmitt trigger gate. Hysteretic boost. Maybe I can find the schematic.> >If the load is like a Nixie tube or something seems to work alright. >Stand by for my economy = Nixie tube formal presentation > >It would show on the nixie if the voltage jumped around erratically about 2:1. I wonder if economists have something like Spice to play with. When I took economics there was no mention of time-domain effects, leads and lags and loops, or of nonlinearities. But those were undergrad courses. -- If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end with doubts, but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties. Francis Bacon
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 13:44:54 -0800, John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:>On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 16:19:04 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote: > >>On 1/25/2022 12:33 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>> >>> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html >>> >>> We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much >>> damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. >> >> >>Ever done if voltage too high: duty cycle = 20%, if voltage too low: >>duty cycle = 80% on a boost topology? > >I've done something like that, a boost converter where the control >element is a schmitt trigger gate. Hysteretic boost. Maybe I can find >the schematic. > > >> >>If the load is like a Nixie tube or something seems to work alright. >>Stand by for my economy = Nixie tube formal presentation >> >> > >It would show on the nixie if the voltage jumped around erratically >about 2:1. > >I wonder if economists have something like Spice to play with. When I >took economics there was no mention of time-domain effects, leads and >lags and loops, or of nonlinearities. But those were undergrad >courses.Me too. Econ does use systems of ODEs, but solve for steady-state. The key in Econ is to find a mathematically simple way to plausibly capture human behavior. It kinda works, so long as one does not push one's luck. A key assumption is that the various economic actors being modeled are statistically independent, which is true until it isn't - like in a bubble and/or crash, when everybody tries to do the same thing. In the Financial world, Economists are not listened to. Joe Gwinn
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On 1/25/2022 5:09 PM, Joe Gwinn wrote:> On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 13:44:54 -0800, John Larkin > <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote: > >> On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 16:19:04 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote: >> >>> On 1/25/2022 12:33 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>>> >>>> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html >>>> >>>> We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much >>>> damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. >>> >>> >>> Ever done if voltage too high: duty cycle = 20%, if voltage too low: >>> duty cycle = 80% on a boost topology? >> >> I've done something like that, a boost converter where the control >> element is a schmitt trigger gate. Hysteretic boost. Maybe I can find >> the schematic. >> >> >>> >>> If the load is like a Nixie tube or something seems to work alright. >>> Stand by for my economy = Nixie tube formal presentation >>> >>> >> >> It would show on the nixie if the voltage jumped around erratically >> about 2:1. >> >> I wonder if economists have something like Spice to play with. When I >> took economics there was no mention of time-domain effects, leads and >> lags and loops, or of nonlinearities. But those were undergrad >> courses. > > Me too. Econ does use systems of ODEs, but solve for steady-state. > The key in Econ is to find a mathematically simple way to plausibly > capture human behavior. It kinda works, so long as one does not push > one's luck. > > A key assumption is that the various economic actors being modeled are > statistically independent, which is true until it isn't - like in a > bubble and/or crash, when everybody tries to do the same thing. > > In the Financial world, Economists are not listened to. > > Joe GwinnTrue facts, I have an acquaintance who's a PhD academic macroeconomist. He doesn't try to model entire economies, more like small subsets say a particular industry like textile manufacturing, and its interactions with its host country's commodities market. Often the thrust being that the particular industry could make more profit with the resources they already have by doing something non-intuitive. But industry is often very stodgy.
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
On 1/25/2022 4:44 PM, John Larkin wrote:> On Tue, 25 Jan 2022 16:19:04 -0500, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote: > >> On 1/25/2022 12:33 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >>> >>> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-signal-a-march-rate-hike.html >>> >>> We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds much >>> damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. >> >> >> Ever done if voltage too high: duty cycle = 20%, if voltage too low: >> duty cycle = 80% on a boost topology? > > I've done something like that, a boost converter where the control > element is a schmitt trigger gate. Hysteretic boost. Maybe I can find > the schematic. > > >> >> If the load is like a Nixie tube or something seems to work alright. >> Stand by for my economy = Nixie tube formal presentation >> >> > > It would show on the nixie if the voltage jumped around erratically > about 2:1.You can build a hysteric buck converter that can line and load-regulate fairly well but AFAIK a naive hysteric boost will always wander without more advanced tactics, even with a constant load. But for an approximately resistive or constant current load I think you can make the wandering arbitrarily small and the good news is that type of loop can never go into severe oscillations, it's already unstable by its nature.> I wonder if economists have something like Spice to play with. When I > took economics there was no mention of time-domain effects, leads and > lags and loops, or of nonlinearities. But those were undergrad > courses.The programmers who built the first massively multiplayer online games like Ultima Online were very optimistic they could build a world with its own "real" economy and virtual ecosystem of e.g. forests and oceans and mines and monsters with their own life-cycle, that would run itself without having to resort to dumb hacks to keep the game interesting. This was impossible, the virtual worlds were too small, like your little player-guy could travel across the whole of the world at a fast jog in a half hour of real time. A few hundred players together in that virtual environment left to their own devices could strip the whole world bare of resources in days.
Reply by ●January 25, 20222022-01-25
jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote in news:8uc0vg5tpgr83ao6rjbum39d0bp8dv4u1u@4ax.com:> > https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/the-federal-reserve-is-likely-to-si > gnal-a-march-rate-hike.html > > We've seen this pattern for hundreds of years, but nobody adds > much damping or lead comp to the loop. Quite the contrary. >We will see perturbations from Nixon's devaluing the Gold Standard for decades to come.
