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mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Started by legg March 22, 2020

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote:

> > >https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 > >RL
Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of infections. That's exponential growth for ya. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet. "Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 > > RL
This guy does a great web page. Pity government leaders don't read it. -- Rick C. - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
On 3/22/2020 2:57 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
> On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote: > >> >> >> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 >> >> RL > > Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of > infections. That's exponential growth for ya. > > >
I've been looking over the patents for the Bird ventilator in my spare time, by Forrest Bird who was born not far from me in Stoughton, MA. Don't know if he was related to the other Bird family in this area which has been an asphalt roofing shingle manufacturer since the late 18th century. It's a fascinating device and very clever in its relative simplicity using two chambers of differential pressure and a sensitive magnetically-clutched valve and venturi-system to sense back-pressure as the lungs fill and regulate inhalation volume accordingly, and continue to deliver pressure even if a leak develops in the system. No electronics, runs on 50 psi source air pressure, almost no springs or contacting moving parts to wear out.
On 3/22/2020 4:18 PM, bitrex wrote:
> On 3/22/2020 2:57 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 >>> >>> >>> RL >> >> Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of >> infections. That's exponential growth for ya. >> >> >> > > I've been looking over the patents for the Bird ventilator in my spare > time, by Forrest Bird who was born not far from me in Stoughton, MA. > Don't know if he was related to the other Bird family in this area which > has been an asphalt roofing shingle manufacturer since the late 18th > century. > > It's a fascinating device and very clever in its relative simplicity > using two chambers of differential pressure and a sensitive > magnetically-clutched valve and venturi-system to sense back-pressure as > the lungs fill and regulate inhalation volume accordingly, and continue > to deliver pressure even if a leak develops in the system. No > electronics, runs on 50 psi source air pressure, almost no springs or > contacting moving parts to wear out.
It's sort of like one of those supercharger fuel-management gizmos, in the patent it says a similar valve design could be used for fuel-management to supercharged aircraft engines.
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 > > RL
That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.
On 3/22/2020 4:43 PM, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
> On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote: >> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 >> >> RL > > That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction. >
The max theoretical mutation rate of a propagating RNA virus is about proportional to the inverse of its genome size; it doesn't have error-correction ability so any faster than that and the number of sequence alterations that are rapidly lethal quickly goes up and it doesn't live long enough to spread.
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 16:18:24 -0400, bitrex <user@example.net> wrote:

>On 3/22/2020 2:57 PM, jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: >> On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:50:49 -0400, legg <legg@nospam.magma.ca> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 >>> >>> RL >> >> Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of >> infections. That's exponential growth for ya. >> >> >> > >I've been looking over the patents for the Bird ventilator in my spare >time, by Forrest Bird who was born not far from me in Stoughton, MA. >Don't know if he was related to the other Bird family in this area which >has been an asphalt roofing shingle manufacturer since the late 18th >century. > >It's a fascinating device and very clever in its relative simplicity >using two chambers of differential pressure and a sensitive >magnetically-clutched valve and venturi-system to sense back-pressure as >the lungs fill and regulate inhalation volume accordingly, and continue >to deliver pressure even if a leak develops in the system. No >electronics, runs on 50 psi source air pressure, almost no springs or >contacting moving parts to wear out.
Nowadays, a small uP could do a better job. It could be interfaced, too. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet. "Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"
On 3/22/2020 4:43 PM, bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:
> On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote: >> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 >> >> RL > > That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction. >
I don't follow his argument that mitigation/social distancing would make novel infectious mutations more likely to cause problems down the road, genetic drift happens from random sampling as the virus moves from person to person. social distancing would be expected to increase pressure from genetic drift I'd think, genetic drift tends to decrease population diversity not increase it.
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 13:43:08 -0700 (PDT),
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com wrote:

>On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote: >> https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 >> >> RL > >That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunology. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible population size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication presents an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are dated. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease, he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, therefore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business, he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a waste of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.
Sure, you can have all sorts of fun with a math model. Or a spreadsheet. But the chloroquine might help, seems to help. Flu viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal. It's not in their interest to quickly kill the hosts that spread them. But what impresses me is that an entire planet worth of viruses mutate together. No one virus mutates and passes the less-lethal trend to its offspring. -- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet. "Bunter", he said, "I give you a toast. The triumph of Instinct over Reason"