On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 22:15:18 +0300, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
>On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 19:48:32 +0100, Tom Gardner
><spamjunk@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:
>
>>On 18/09/19 17:56, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
>>> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:43:31 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
>>> <trader4@optonline.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 12:15:33 PM UTC-4, jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:25:03 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
>>>>> <trader4@optonline.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 11:12:22 AM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
>>>>>>> jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 18 Sep 2019, Winfield Hill wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/egypts-massive-18gw-benban-solar-park-nears-completion
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Located in Egypt's "Western Desert", west of the
>>>>>>>>> Nile, but in the eastern Sahara. 1.8GW is a lot,
>>>>>>>>> amounting to 5% of Egypt's capacity, but they're
>>>>>>>>> also finishing three 4.8GW gas-fired combined-cycle
>>>>>>>>> plants (40% of capacity), to meet peak demands.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://press.siemens.com/global/en/feature/egypt-selects-siemens-operate-and-maintain-worlds-largest-combined-cycle-power-plants
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The almost 10 GW of new always-on gas plant will help
>>>>>>>> them a lot.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If it says it's for peak, that implies that it's not always on.
>>>>>
>>>>> People need electricity at night too.
>>>>
>>>> Sure, but again that doesn't mean that it's running full capacity at
>>>> night. Energy usage declines sharply at night.
>>>
>>> The consumption is typically 10-30 % lower during the night than
>>> during the day depending on country and season. Apparently it can fall
>>> by 50 % in some countries, if there are very little 24/7 industry.
>
>You failed to quote the heading of the chapter you are quoting
>
>> Fluctuations in household electricity consumption
>
>>In the UK it is 4:1 ...
>>
>>� Peak demand for electricity is about four
>>times greater than night-time demand
>>� Electricity consumption increases rapidly
>>in the morning as people wake up, shower
>>and begin to use appliances
>>� Many people are out during the day, which
>>keeps consumption steady
>>� Electricity consumption peaks in the
>>evening when most people are at home
>>cooking, using lights, and when TV viewing
>>is at its height
>>� Major national events, such as a
>>Wimbledon final, can cause sharp drops
>>and increases in demand
>
>With that heading that chapter makes sense and might even be accurate.
>
>However, from production point of view, those figures are quite
>irrelevant. More relevant is to include industry and infrastructure
>consumptions, such as street lights.
Electric heat?
Reply by George Herold●September 19, 20192019-09-19
On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 9:52:59 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote:
> Am 19.09.19 um 03:09 schrieb Winfield Hill:
> > Rick C wrote...
> >>
> >> One big advantage of renewables, other countries
> >> can't raise prices or cut them off.
> >
> > An issue Germany has faced with Russian gas.
>
> There have never been issues with Russian gas.
> Never ever. Not even during the cold war.
> The Russians keep their contracts.
> That's more than one can say about the US.
Boston (east coast US) gets Russian gas in the winter.
(mostly because we can't build new pipe lines now.)
George H.
>
> Well, the Ukrainians help themselves at the
> pipeline, now and then. Then they wonder why
> the second pipeline is under the sea now.
>
> Gerhard
Reply by Martin Brown●September 19, 20192019-09-19
On 19/09/2019 15:07, Rick C wrote:
> On Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 7:30:37 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown
> wrote:
>>
>>> • Electricity consumption increases rapidly in the morning as
>>> people wake up, shower and begin to use appliances • Many people
>>> are out during the day, which keeps consumption steady •
>>> Electricity consumption peaks in the evening when most people are
>>> at home cooking, using lights, and when TV viewing is at its
>>> height • Major national events, such as a Wimbledon final, can
>>> cause sharp drops and increases in demand
>>>
>>> Source: https://bbc.in/2UTHUC4 from BEIS (2016) Energy
>>> Consumption in the UK where BEIS is the UK "governments"
>>> Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
>>
>> Odd that they should make such a crass mistake on the first line.
>> You can check the annual peak figures for last year on gridwatch.
>>
>> Or here for previous more representative cold winter years:
>>
>> See for example:
>> https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/295225/Seasonal_variations_in_electricity_demand.pdf
>
>>
> I don't follow. Their description of the electricity usage seems
> spot on in describing the curve your reference provides. Are you
> saying people wake up in the morning and *don't* take showers???
Hot water (and space heating) in the UK is typically provided by the
gas/oil central heating or a gas flash boiler so it makes no difference
to *electricity* usage. A few people have electric showers but not many.
And to your other point not everybody in the UK showers every morning.
My point was that the 4:1 ratio claimed in the first paragraph was well
wide of the mark. The entire grid nearly collapsed in March last year
because although the installed generation capacity is ~80GW you can in
very cold weather only reliably generate about 60GW of electricity
without bringing down the network that supplies mains gas to consumers.
The dash to gas for electricity has some unwelcome side effects.
They had to pay heavy industry to drop off just to keep the lights on.
An even weirder paradox is because the distribution network and the
generators are separate privatised businesses and France uses a lot more
electric heating the Beast from the East event in March 2018 saw UK
generators selling their electricity into France where it got premium
prices! (up to the full capacity of the cross channel interlinks)
Electricity de Francaise owns quite a lot of UK generating capacity (as
did Enron until it went bust). There is a derelict supergrid line not
far from me for connecting in a power station they never actually built.
--
Regards,
Martin Brown
Reply by Rick C●September 19, 20192019-09-19
On Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 8:26:39 AM UTC-4, Bill Sloman wrote:
Contrary to what some people would argue, companies working li-ion batteries for grid storage are designing different chemistries for this market from the currently larger market for EVs. I found a reference for this and posted in another discussion recently.
It only makes sense. Design goals are different for cars and grid storage. So the batteries will be optimized differently. In cars weight vs. capacity is vital, for grid storage not important so much, size vs. capacity is a factor, but not a critical one. Cost per kWh is important for both, but likely near the top of the list for grid storage while others are more important for cars. Grid storage can use space to provide isolation to minimize the spread of damage if a cell catches fire, a VERY important issue when you are storing MWh of energy. In cars they use active cooling and pray since there is no room for spacing cells apart.
Yep, there will be a whole industry for grid storage which will have limited overlap with EV and cell phone batteries.
--
Rick C.
--- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
--- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by Rick C●September 19, 20192019-09-19
On Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 7:30:37 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
>
> > • Electricity consumption increases rapidly
> > in the morning as people wake up, shower
> > and begin to use appliances
> > • Many people are out during the day, which
> > keeps consumption steady
> > • Electricity consumption peaks in the
> > evening when most people are at home
> > cooking, using lights, and when TV viewing
> > is at its height
> > • Major national events, such as a
> > Wimbledon final, can cause sharp drops
> > and increases in demand
> >
> > Source: https://bbc.in/2UTHUC4 from
> > BEIS (2016) Energy Consumption in the UK
> > where BEIS is the UK "governments" Department
> > for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
>
> Odd that they should make such a crass mistake on the first line.
> You can check the annual peak figures for last year on gridwatch.
>
> Or here for previous more representative cold winter years:
>
> See for example:
> https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/295225/Seasonal_variations_in_electricity_demand.pdf
I don't follow. Their description of the electricity usage seems spot on in describing the curve your reference provides. Are you saying people wake up in the morning and *don't* take showers???
--
Rick C.
++ Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by Tom Gardner●September 19, 20192019-09-19
On 19/09/19 12:30, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 18/09/2019 19:48, Tom Gardner wrote:
>> On 18/09/19 17:56, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
>>> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:43:31 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
>>> <trader4@optonline.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 12:15:33 PM UTC-4,
>>>> jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:25:03 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
>>>>> <trader4@optonline.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 11:12:22 AM UTC-4, Winfield Hill wrote:
>>>>>>> jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 18 Sep 2019, Winfield Hill wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/egypts-massive-18gw-benban-solar-park-nears-completion
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Located in Egypt's "Western Desert", west of the
>>>>>>>>> Nile, but in the eastern Sahara. 1.8GW is a lot,
>>>>>>>>> amounting to 5% of Egypt's capacity, but they're
>>>>>>>>> also finishing three 4.8GW gas-fired combined-cycle
>>>>>>>>> plants (40% of capacity), to meet peak demands.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://press.siemens.com/global/en/feature/egypt-selects-siemens-operate-and-maintain-worlds-largest-combined-cycle-power-plants
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The almost 10 GW of new always-on gas plant will help
>>>>>>>> them a lot.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If it says it's for peak, that implies that it's not always on.
>>>>>
>>>>> People need electricity at night too.
>>>>
>>>> Sure, but again that doesn't mean that it's running full capacity at
>>>> night. Energy usage declines sharply at night.
>>>
>>> The consumption is typically 10-30 % lower during the night than
>>> during the day depending on country and season. Apparently it can fall
>>> by 50 % in some countries, if there are very little 24/7 industry.
>>
>> In the UK it is 4:1 ...
>>
>> • Peak demand for electricity is about four
>> times greater than night-time demand
>
> That cannot be right apart from in the most extreme situation of a Wimbledon
> final or a cup final involving England kettle rush load in the middle of the
> coldest weather the country has ever seen and held on a weekday evening at 8pm
> (which is about when peak winter load occurs).
>
> Normal diurnal load variation in the UK for most of the year is about 30% of
> peak load rising to 50% in a really cold winter. Base load also rises in winter
> because of economy 7 off-peak use tariffs.
>
> Base load is typically 20GW continuously irrespective of season (but will get
> higher in very cold weather). Absolute peak generating capacity with everything
> going at full tilt is something like 80GW but it is very very unusual for actual
> consumption to go above 60GW). Last winter was so mild that it didn't get much
> above 40GW for any length of time.
>
> In spring 2018 they were having to pay some industrial users to not use
> electricity because their available capacity was so limited.
>
> https://www.ft.com/content/2c1f71c6-2ef7-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc
>
> We very nearly ran out of mains gas when "the beast from the East" hit and that
> was with a peak demand that was under 50GW for a few days. Broken gas pipelines
> being offline didn't help:
>
> https://www.drax.com/energy-policy/the-beast-from-the-east/
>
>> • Electricity consumption increases rapidly
>> in the morning as people wake up, shower
>> and begin to use appliances
>> • Many people are out during the day, which
>> keeps consumption steady
>> • Electricity consumption peaks in the
>> evening when most people are at home
>> cooking, using lights, and when TV viewing
>> is at its height
>> • Major national events, such as a
>> Wimbledon final, can cause sharp drops
>> and increases in demand
>>
>> Source: https://bbc.in/2UTHUC4 from
>> BEIS (2016) Energy Consumption in the UK
>> where BEIS is the UK "governments" Department
>> for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
>
> Odd that they should make such a crass mistake on the first line.
> You can check the annual peak figures for last year on gridwatch.
>
> Or here for previous more representative cold winter years:
>
> See for example:
> https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/295225/Seasonal_variations_in_electricity_demand.pdf
It was my cockup, not the BBC's.
The heading, which I missed and therefore didn't quote,
refers to /household/ electricity use, not total electricity
use. Mea culpa.
However, yesterday's diurnal variation (according to
gridwatch) was around 37.5%, and yesterday was scarcely
a cold winter day :)
Reply by Bill Sloman●September 19, 20192019-09-19
On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 11:18:46 PM UTC+10, Winfield Hill wrote:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/what-energy-storage-would-have-to-cost-for-a-renewable-grid
This talks about what energy storage would have to cost to be cheap enough to allow solar to supply all the power being used. It's not there yet.
But it doesn't take much in the way of backup sources to let you get away with more expensive storage, and we may be there already.
Economy of scale has pushed the price of solar cells down a long way.
Grid storage modules aren't really being mass-produced yet, so they may come down quite a bit too when they get more popular.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply by Martin Brown●September 19, 20192019-09-19
On 18/09/2019 19:48, Tom Gardner wrote:
> On 18/09/19 17:56, upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
>> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:43:31 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
>> <trader4@optonline.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 12:15:33 PM UTC-4,
>>> jla...@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:25:03 -0700 (PDT), Whoey Louie
>>>> <trader4@optonline.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 11:12:22 AM UTC-4, Winfield
>>>>> Hill wrote:
>>>>>> jlarkin@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 18 Sep 2019, Winfield Hill wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/egypts-massive-18gw-benban-solar-park-nears-completion
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Located in Egypt's "Western Desert", west of the
>>>>>>>> Nile, but in the eastern Sahara. 1.8GW is a lot,
>>>>>>>> amounting to 5% of Egypt's capacity, but they're
>>>>>>>> also finishing three 4.8GW gas-fired combined-cycle
>>>>>>>> plants (40% of capacity), to meet peak demands.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://press.siemens.com/global/en/feature/egypt-selects-siemens-operate-and-maintain-worlds-largest-combined-cycle-power-plants
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The almost 10 GW of new always-on gas plant will help
>>>>>>> them a lot.
>>>>>
>>>>> If it says it's for peak, that implies that it's not always on.
>>>>
>>>> People need electricity at night too.
>>>
>>> Sure, but again that doesn't mean that it's running full capacity at
>>> night. Energy usage declines sharply at night.
>>
>> The consumption is typically 10-30 % lower during the night than
>> during the day depending on country and season. Apparently it can fall
>> by 50 % in some countries, if there are very little 24/7 industry.
>
> In the UK it is 4:1 ...
>
> • Peak demand for electricity is about four
> times greater than night-time demand
That cannot be right apart from in the most extreme situation of a
Wimbledon final or a cup final involving England kettle rush load in the
middle of the coldest weather the country has ever seen and held on a
weekday evening at 8pm (which is about when peak winter load occurs).
Normal diurnal load variation in the UK for most of the year is about
30% of peak load rising to 50% in a really cold winter. Base load also
rises in winter because of economy 7 off-peak use tariffs.
Base load is typically 20GW continuously irrespective of season (but
will get higher in very cold weather). Absolute peak generating capacity
with everything going at full tilt is something like 80GW but it is very
very unusual for actual consumption to go above 60GW). Last winter was
so mild that it didn't get much above 40GW for any length of time.
In spring 2018 they were having to pay some industrial users to not use
electricity because their available capacity was so limited.
https://www.ft.com/content/2c1f71c6-2ef7-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc
We very nearly ran out of mains gas when "the beast from the East" hit
and that was with a peak demand that was under 50GW for a few days.
Broken gas pipelines being offline didn't help:
https://www.drax.com/energy-policy/the-beast-from-the-east/
> • Electricity consumption increases rapidly
> in the morning as people wake up, shower
> and begin to use appliances
> • Many people are out during the day, which
> keeps consumption steady
> • Electricity consumption peaks in the
> evening when most people are at home
> cooking, using lights, and when TV viewing
> is at its height
> • Major national events, such as a
> Wimbledon final, can cause sharp drops
> and increases in demand
>
> Source: https://bbc.in/2UTHUC4 from
> BEIS (2016) Energy Consumption in the UK
> where BEIS is the UK "governments" Department
> for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 9:52:59 PM UTC-4, Gerhard Hoffmann wrote:
> Am 19.09.19 um 03:09 schrieb Winfield Hill:
> > Rick C wrote...
> >>
> >> One big advantage of renewables, other countries
> >> can't raise prices or cut them off.
> >
> > An issue Germany has faced with Russian gas.
>
> There have never been issues with Russian gas.
> Never ever. Not even during the cold war.
> The Russians keep their contracts.
> That's more than one can say about the US.
>
> Well, the Ukrainians help themselves at the
> pipeline, now and then. Then they wonder why
> the second pipeline is under the sea now.
>
> Gerhard
I seem to recall the issue with gas from the other side of the fallen iron curtain is the *threat* of being cut off.
--
Rick C.
+- Get 2,000 miles of free Supercharging
+- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Reply by Bill Sloman●September 18, 20192019-09-18
On Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 7:49:47 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:50:31 GMT, Steve Wilson <no@spam.com> wrote:
>
> >John Larkin <jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote:
> >
> >> On Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:28:58 +0100, Martin Brown
> >> <'''newspam'''@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> >
> >>>We are only really in trouble if it is a blocking high calm cold winters
> >>>day without wind and the same over most of Europe. When that happens
> >>>next time there will be UK power cuts since France won't export to us if
> >>>their entire generating capacity is needed domestically.
> >
> >> If building more wind and solar results in reduction of fossil-fueled
> >> power capacity, expect occasional interesting events.
> >
> >> Pity there are no good storage options.
> >
> >All these problems will vanish when thorium molten salt reactors come online.
> >I don't know what's holding them up.
>
> 1. The public is afraid of radiation.
Not an irrational anxiety.
> 2. The greenies don't want more energy, clean or otherwise. They want
> sacrifice.
There may be greenies who are that silly. I don't seem to come across any of their propaganda, but John Larkin gets his information on the subject from denialist propaganda websites designed to appeal to the gullible, and they presumably feel free to invent any kind of greeny they feel might be useful.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney